Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Northern Trust

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Northern Trust DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Wyndham Championship. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!

If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Northern Trust

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

Liberty National Golf Club

7,387 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

The end product of what we will get at Liberty National Golf Club isn't flat across the board if researching all events played here over the last 20 years, so I would be careful in looking at any strokes gained data pre-2013. Players voiced general dissatisfaction after the 2009 iteration of the event, causing the course to undergo significant changes, including major renovations to the greens, fairways and bunkers. As of today, the property has 90 sand traps and 10 water hazards that golfers will need to traverse, but there are still some of the older pitfalls to be found.

The fairways are of average width, but nasty fescue and bluegrass rough will come into play on wayward tee shots. The greens are tricky and should be fast at 12+ on the stimpmeter, and the narrow landing zones on the putting surface will make it challenging to hit greens in regulation.

Wind can play a factor if it blows in from the Atlantic Ocean, and long iron play will be at a premium because of the tiny surfaces. The five par-fours measuring between 450 to 500 yards are BRUTALLY DIFFICULT and will grade as the most challenging holes players have to deal with this weekend. Golfers who can maintain their score through that stretch and perform during the par-fives will be at a significant advantage all weekend, and I think an overall level of well-roundedness will be needed for whomever ultimately finds the winner's circle for the first playoff event of 2021.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 11/1 and is followed by Dustin Johnson at 16/1, Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa at 18/1 and Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy at 22/1.

Key Stats 

• Weighted Strokes Gained T2G (25%)
• Weighted Par-Four Average (17.5%)
• Weighted Proximity (17.5%)
• Strokes Gained Total Bent + Wind (10%)
• Par-Five Birdie or Better (10%)
• Sand Save (10%)
• Ball-Striking (10%)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are seven players this week priced above $10,000:

• Safest Play: Collin Morikawa ($10,400), Jordan Spieth ($10,800) - When you start a model with T2G being your highest weighted category, I think it lends itself for the top players in the world to shine through. Sure, you get your outliers like Sergio Garcia, Keegan Bradley or Corey Conners, but it is one of the easiest ways to make sure the cream rises to the top. With all of that being said, the two players that graded out as the best values in safety for me were Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth. Morikawa graded substantially above any other golfer when I reweighted my tee to green metrics to mimic Liberty National, and Spieth is one of my biggest movers when I condense my model down to a more realistic version than over a year of data. Jon Rahm ($11,500) is the favorite for a reason, but the fact we haven't seen him in action since the Open Championship does have me less inclined to pay up to the top.
• Most Upside: Collin Morikawa ($10,400) - Not a bad combination to be on the list of safest play and most upside.
• Favorite GPP Play: Brooks Koepka ($10,200) - I think the consensus will end up being Dustin Johnson for most DFS users as the "sneaky" GPP option to target, but I am willing to ignore the weird event Brooks Koepka put together at the WGC. We have seen Koepka gain OTT in his last 12 trackable events, and the nine times he has earned strokes with his around the green game over the last 13 starts is being negated by his astronomically bad performance in Memphis.
• Fade: Dustin Johnson ($11,000) - I feel like I've been the leader of this opinion that Dustin Johnson is playing better than the results indicate, but the one thing I keep mentioning is how the American has struggled with his long irons in 2021. With 52% of approach shots coming from 175 yards or beyond, I worry that the 37-year-old fails again to put together four days of good golf.
• Most Likely Winner: Collin Morikawa ($10,400)

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Daniel Berger ($9,100) -Daniel Berger ranks third in my model from a statistical perspective and seventh in his recent weighted form. His short game and OTT data have left a little to be desired recently, but it is hard to ignore the American being one of the best wind players in the world if this venue does get more challenging.
• Most Upside: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,600) - We have three playable options in Justin Thomas ($9,800), Bryson DeChambeau ($9,600) and Viktor Hovland ($9,500), but it is hard not to give the golfer that has perhaps the best upside in the world the nod here. DeChambeau's long iron prowess should play nicely for him at a venue that sees 52% of shots come from 175+ yards, and his distance should highlight his strengths. 
• Favorite GPP Play: Viktor Hovland ($9,500) - Sixth in weighted proximity and seventh in strokes gained off the tee, Viktor Hovland carries the potential to win this event at sub-10 percent ownership.
• Fade: Abraham Ancer ($9,400)  - I'm okay with Abraham Ancer being a safe play that comes into the week at $7,800, but I do think this is a different range for him at $9,400. I'd instead shoot for upside elsewhere, although I don't believe Ancer burns lineups to the ground by any means. 
• Most Likely Winner: Viktor Hovland ($9,500)

$8,000 Range

• Safest Play: Paul Casey ($8,700) - I am done trying to predict Paul Casey's victories, but as the 18th priced player on DraftKings, the Englishman has a lot to like, which is evident by his ownership total. Casey ranks first in my weighted proximity range and has 11 straight rounds of being par or better.
• Most Upside: Webb Simpson ($8,900) -  Webb Simpson is trending in the right direction with three straight top-19 results. Ownership looks condensed, and while I do know that he went nuclear with his irons at Sedgefield - a venue that is a top-10 lock for him yearly - it was still good to see the game turn around for the playoff stretch.
• Favorite GPP Play: Tony Finau ($8,200) -I think we have finally reached the point with Tony Finau where the price tag is worth the lack of win equity. I know the recent metrics aren't ideal, but three top-35s in a row are too much for me to ignore at a number and ownership percentage substantially below the norm.
• Fade: Adam Scott ($8,400)
• Most Likely Winner: Webb Simpson ($8,900)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)

• Safest Play: Jhonattan Vegas ($7,100), Seamus Power ($7,000), Cameron Tringale ($7,300)
• Most Upside: Tyrrell Hatton ($7,800) 
• Favorite GPP Play: Sungjae Im ($7,800)
• Fade: Billy Horschel ($7,600)
• Most Likely Winner: Tyrrell Hatton ($7,800) 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:

Carlos Ortiz ($6,900), Maverick McNealy ($6,900), Roger Sloan ($6,800), Talor Gooch ($6,800), Aaron Wise ($6,600), Chez Reavie ($6,400), Luke List ($6,400), Hank Lebioda ($6,300), Doug Ghim ($6,200)

A lot of volatile options here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few names pop up on the leaderboard.

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