RADIO
Contact rate risers and fallers based on RotoBaller's premium tool. Elliott Baas identifies offensive players whose changes in contact rate could make them worth adding or dropping in fantasy baseball leagues.
Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Wednesday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.
Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.
Here is a breakdown of some of the biggest fantasy relevant risers and fallers in contact rate over the last seven days.
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Contact Rate Risers
Kevin Kiermaier (OF, TB): 95% contact rate last seven days (+22%)
Kiermaier has been sizzling as of late, and last week he hit .545 with a 1.720 OPS and one strikeout in 24 PA. He also hit three homers in his last six games. The only thing stopping him is an illness which has kept him out of the lineup over the past two days. Kiermaier had been awful prior to September, hitting .196 with a .580 OPS. His glove was the only thing keeping him in the lineup. Kiermaier has increased both his line drive rate (28.6%) and hard hit rate (40.9%) in September over previously anemic levels. Kiermaier has often shown flashes of talent at the plate with his power-speed combo, but he lacked an inability to stay healthy and produce consistently, often subjecting his owners to long slumps and finding himself on the waiver wire. Obviously his .526 BABIP in September is unsustainable, but with only three weeks left in the season Kiermaier is a good player to ride while he’s hot into the playoffs.
Wil Myers (1B/3B/OF, SD): 87% contact rate last seven days (+17%)
Myers improved his contact rate over the last seven days but it didn’t translate to much production. He hit .200 with a .561 OPS and two strikeouts in 17 PA over the last week. Myers had only a 15.4% hard contact rate during this stretch, which is uncharacteristic for Myers who has a 90.2 MPH average exit velocity this season. This cold week looks like the product of poor contact by Myers. Normally he strikes out quite a bit at 28.3%, though his 76.6% contact rate on the year is only slightly below average. Myers has been awful during the second half with a .220 BA and .624 OPS, and the biggest problem for him has been strikeouts. He is striking out 32% of the time since the All-Star break, and though this week is encouraging for him to get right, Myers doesn’t have much time left to fix his problems. He is not a must-bench, but Myers is certainly benchable until things begin to turn around.
Bryce Harper (OF, WSH): 88% contact rate last seven days (+18%)
Harper has been crushing the ball since the All-Star break, and last week he hit .438 with a 1.593 OPS and two strikeouts in 29 PA. Since the break Harper is hitting .329 with a 1.041 OPS and is quieting first half critics. Something Harper has done to combat the shift is lower his pull rate by 5% in the second half and increase his line drive rate by nearly 4%. Harper’s .541 xSLG and .396 xwOBA are both slightly better than they were last year and Statcast always suggested that Harper was capable of this type of bounce back. There isn’t much to say about Harper for 2018 other than continue to start him and reap the rewards during this crucial time of the season. Hopefully his diminished overall numbers and first half slump are enough to make him fall into the mid or late second round and become a value in 2019.
Contact Rate Fallers
Eugenio Suarez (3B, CIN): 42% contact rate last seven days (-31%)
So, Suarez does slump after all. Over the past seven days he is hitting .208 with a .678 OPS and a whopping 14 strikeouts in 29 PA. Suarez first broke out in 2017 and has taken his game to a new level this year, posting MVP caliber numbers when healthy. For a power hitter Suarez doesn’t strike out too much normally with a 23.7% strikeout rate and 76.6% contact rate, so this shouldn’t be a problem for him going forward. Suarez’s .555 xSLG and .392 xwOBA are on par with Bryce Harper’s and he should be treated with as much leash as Harper has gotten this season. Start Suarez when healthy no matter what.
Jonathan Schoop (2B/SS, MIL): 47% contact rate last seven days (-29%)
Schoop has been quite awful since coming to Milwaukee. He is hitting .213 with a 30% strikeout rate over since August 1. Over the last seven days he is hitting .176 with a .591 OPS and nine strikeouts in 21 PA. A five RBI day on Sunday salvaged his week, but outside of that Schoop did nothing. A big problem for him is a 50.8% groundball rate compared to just a 18.5% line drive rate. When he makes contact it is of poor quality that is not conducive to any sort of fantasy or real life production. Schoop is 63% owned in Yahoo leagues as of writing this, and it’s time to let him go. He has had one good month in July and been useless otherwise.
Steven Souza (OF, ARI): 44% contact rate last seven days (-26%)
It’s been a rough first year in Arizona for Souza. He has scuffled between injuries to a .231 BA and .697 OPS in 245 PA. Over the last seven days Souza is hitting .063 (1-for-16) with nine strikeouts in 24 PA. His seven walks give Souza a .375 OBP during that stretch, salvaging what has otherwise been a miserable month for him. Souza has always been a poor contact hitter that struggles with strikeouts, and this season he actually has a career best 26.5% strikeout rate and 74.3% contact rate. Neither of those numbers are good or even average, but it’s an improvement for him. From the power department Souza has been getting unlucky. He has just a 6.9% HR/FB ratio and .410 xSLG is 35 points higher than his acutal slugging percentage. He isn’t close to replicating last year’s breakout season, but his .440 xSLG in 2017 isn’t that much higher than his xSLG this year. He’s still crushing the ball with an 89 MPH average exit velocity, but a six degree increase in launch angle has lead to a 17.2% infield flyball rate. There are some encouraging metrics here, but he’s been so bad that Souza shouldn’t be trusted in the fantasy playoffs. He does make for an interesting end-game player in 2019 as a bounce back candidate.
