Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 18: Buy or Sell?

Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Wednesday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.

Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.

Here is a breakdown of some of the biggest fantasy relevant risers and fallers in contact rate over the last seven days.

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Contact Rate Risers

Matt Davidson (1B/3B, CWS): 89% contact rate last seven days (+23%)

It was an uncharacteristic week for Davidson, who only struck out twice in 16 PA along with a .250 AVG and .813 OPS. Three of his four hits went for extra bases. Davidson had made gains in contact rate and plate discipline this season, and while he is hitting just .221 overall his OBP is up 67 points to .327. Davidson is still a strikeout machine, striking out 34.6% of the time. That is still an improvement over his 37.2% strikeout rate last season, and his contact rate improvement 5% up to 69%. Davidson will not be a good source of batting average; that is clear based on his career track record. He is a career .223 hitter with a career .219 xBA, so don’t expect his average to climb much higher than .230. His 12.5% walk rate should salvage his OBP and make him more valuable in roto formats that use on-base percentage. He’s kind of like a less powerful Joey Gallo in that sense. If you need cheap home runs Davidson can provide them, just don’t expect much else.

Matt Adams (1B/OF, WSH): 100% contact rate last seven days (+22%)

Adams did not swing-and-miss last week, and it led to a .286 AVG and .661 OPS in 16 PA. Adams isn’t an every day player right now because of Ryan Zimmerman, which is truly a shame based on the year Adams is having. He brought his strikeout rate below 20% for the first time in his career and had a 4.5% jump in contact rate this season up to 77%. Adams has become famous over the last few seasons for gargantuan hot streaks that trick everyone into thinking he’s breaking out, but what has gone unnoticed is three-year positive trends in just about every hitting metric. Most importantly are gains in contact rate, BB/K ratio, and ISO. His current .285 AVG might be a little inflated, but Adams should be able to hit around .270 and provide good power. It would be nice to see him play every day, or at least get the strong side of a platoon with Ryan Zimmerman. Until then he’s best used in leagues with daily lineup changes and in DFS.

Chris Davis (1B, BAL): 80% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, Chris Davis is was back with a bang last week. In 23 PA he hit .250 with a 1.353 OPS and only three strikeouts. He also slugged three home runs this week. The funny thing about Chris Davis, despite the well documented and mocked struggles, is the fact that his 69.3% contact rate is his highest since 2012. 69% is still very low, but an improvement nonetheless. Even with an increased contact rate Davis is striking out 34.8% of the time and hitting .159. Is any of this salvageable? Is there a world where Chris Davis, former second runner up for AL MVP and man who will have $211 million dollars in career earnings by the time his current contract expires, can at least be a serviceable power source as a corner? There is a lot working against him. His average exit velocity has dropped steadily over the past four seasons. He had a 92 MPH average exit velocity in 2015, and this season he is at 88.6 MPH, just barely above league average. He is also the most shifted on hitter in baseball at 91.8%, which leads to extra outs that Davis can’t afford to make. He strikes out too much already, and hitting into the shift creates more automatic outs. At this point there is little hope that Davis can hit .200 again, and there are enough power hitting corners that he can be ignored. Matt Davidson, for example, is only 18% owned in Yahoo leagues and would be a better option. It would have to be a deep AL-only league to even consider Davis.

Contact Rate Fallers

Colin Moran (3B, PIT): 55% contact rate last seven days (-25%)

Moran has been underwhelming in his first full season as a starter with just a .724 OPS and .124 ISO, but this week was uncharacteristic for him. Moran hit .235 with a .513 OPS and seven strikeouts in 18 PA. Moran doesn’t strike out much relative to the league at just 17.6%, and his 81% contact rate is well above league average. The problem with Moran is a lack of power. A .389 SLG doesn’t cut the mustard at corner infield, and while his .457 xSLG suggests a that a little more power could be coming, it certainly doesn’t make him elite. His .265 AVG may also be a little low given Moran’s contact rate and 25% line drive rate, but a .279 xBA doesn’t suggest great gains. If everything breaks right Moran should perform similarly to Miami’s Brian Anderson, which is fine in deeper leagues but doesn’t have enough power or average upside in standard mixed leagues.

Manny Machado (3B/SS, LAD): 56% contact rate last seven days (-24%)

Machado still had a good week last week, hitting .286 with a .929 OPS and two homers, but he also struck out 11 times in 35 PA. Machado is actually experiencing the best offensive season of his career thus far, and at coincides with an increase in contact rate and decrease in strikeout rate. Machado has an 81% contact rate this season, his first time above 80% since 2015. He also has a career low 14% strikeout rate and career high 11.5% walk rate. The increased walk rate could be a result of a poor supporting cast in Baltimore, since pitchers could easily pitch around Machado without a formidable threat behind him. There isn’t anything to worry about with Machado despite the 11 strikeout week. He is an elite player and still produced despite a little extra swing-and-miss in his game. It’s a strong hold on Machado.

Bryce Harper (OF, WSH): 45% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

Harper’s week was similar to Machado’s week. He struck out 10 times in 23 PA, but still hit .290 with a .964 OPS. While he still had a good week, Harper’s .220 AVG has been a source of frustration all season for fantasy owners. While it’s easy to blame the shift, or blame bad luck, the dirty little secret is that Harper can’t make contact this season. His 68.8% contact rate is sixth lowest among qualified hitters this season. In other, more damning words, his contact rate is lower than Chris Davis’ contact rate. Harper has been downright putrid against breaking balls this season, hitting .153 with a 43.1% whiff rate. Who knows whether this is contact year jitters, pressing because of the team’s place in the standings, or Harper’s timing being early. What we do know is that Harper inability to hit breaking balls (and offspeed pitches, to a less extent) have been as much a contributing factor to his struggles as the shift or a low BABIP. He does have a .529 BABIP on line drives, which is tied for fourth lowest in the majors, and since the league average BABIP on line drives is .675 we can glean that Harper is either getting unlucky or being affected by the shift. Most likely it’s a little of both. For a more in depth analysis of how the shift is affecting Harper check out this article. To keep things succinct here, don’t expect a full batting average bounce back from Harper. With the way he is hitting right now .260 seems like the highest average he could reach. Still, if your team needs a miracle to compete Harper may be worth a buy-low. He’s been capable of better production in the past and could still turn things around, but he needs to make drastic changes to his approach first.

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