College Football Pick'em Pool Picks (Week 10 2024) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for ESPN Pick'em Contests

Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick'em for Week 10 of the 2024 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?

One bad week can really hurt at this time of year. I only got three picks right last week. The problem for me is that 26 entries had 40 points or more. "GreatestMomentsinFB" led the group with 51 points in Week 9. "EAGLESYANKEES77" and "lbockenek" each had 50. The big week from "EAGLESYANKEES77" puts them in the lead with 351 points. "IUBB1!" is in second with 349 points. "mr_richard" is in third with 345 points.

The big week from "lbockenek" keeps her in fourth place with 345 points. "big papi10" rounds out the top five at 340 points. "50Centi" and "dlobo4" are tied for sixth with 336 points. "keepingthelittlehumansalive" and "all the way up Big tee #2" are tied for eighth with 334 points. "bullgator" rounds out the top 10 with 328 points.

15 more entries are still over 300 points, but a big week at the top widens the chasm a little more. 46 points separates the top from the bottom of the 300-point entries. Five entries could hit 400 points with a big week this week. The competition is better this year, which is fitting with more on the line!

College Football Pick'em Overview

This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you also want to play the spread version, you can join that group here.

Let's get to the countdown! I will count them from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you will know all of my picks each week.

(1) Arkansas over Mississippi

Arkansas roughed up an improving Mississippi State team in StarkVegas last week. Once again, the Ole Miss offense struggled. The Rebels haven't scored more than 26 points in an SEC game this year. Will 26 be enough to beat the Hogs in Fayetteville?

Arkansas held Texas A&M and Tennessee to a combined 31 points at home this year. They struggled against LSU, which is why I don't have this higher. Ole Miss almost beat the Tigers in Baton Rouge earlier this season. I need points and Ole Miss is picked at 86%. I'm trying to steal one here in what I see as a close matchup.

(2) Baylor over TCU

I've been a little slow to come around to Baylor this year. Josh Hoover is putting up big numbers, but Sawyer Robertson isn't that far behind him. The public is heavier on Baylor (61%), which usually means the point wager is a little higher. I too think Baylor wins, but I'm trying to mitigate the damage if they lose by keeping the points low.

(3) Penn State over Ohio State

This game is in State College. Penn State took care of business after Wisconsin early. Ohio State struggled on offense again. Penn State hasn't played at home in nearly a month. It's going to be rocking in Beaver Stadium on Saturday night.

It would’ve been top 10 before the TV networks got expanded playoffs.

As it stands, it is the least meaningful and least stressful Ohio State-Penn State game in recent history. Win? Cool, PSU gets shot at Oregon in Indy. Lose? Cool, PSU is 90% likely to host a home playoff game. https://t.co/tQ5U8Asv67

— Kevin Horne (@KevinHornePSU) October 28, 2024

Ohio State has more to lose here since it might be tough for a two-loss Big Ten (18) team to make the playoffs this year. The bad news for Penn State is that they have lost seven straight to Ohio State and five of the last six at home to the Buckeyes. The trend scares me, so I'm keeping the points low.

(4) Pittsburgh over SMU

Ridiculous interception from Pittsburgh’s Brandon George. The concentration to pull this in is insane. pic.twitter.com/BCi1L3Otlr

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) October 24, 2024

I thought Syracuse and Kyle McCord would give Pitt problems. Instead, the Panthers picked him off five times. An opportunistic defense against a young quarterback is usually a bad matchup. Vegas is heavily on SMU (-290). The public perception (61%) feels a little closer to me. A balanced offense like Pitt is going to be a problem for the Ponies.

(5) Iowa over Wisconsin

Word around Iowa City is that Cade McNamara is done as the starter for the Hawkeyes. If Kirk Ferentz dared to make this change earlier, there might still be a season to salvage for Iowa. You can say that injuries caught up to McNamara and that is partially true. What is more true is that McNamara has always been a limited passer. It's why J.J. McCarthy took his job at Michigan.

Cade McNamara for Iowa has to make these throws. He has had misses like this far too much this season, and they become drive killers. These aren't tough throws, they're routine for ANY P5 QB.

So, for those wondering why it seems like Iowa's passing game hasn't taken a big step… pic.twitter.com/YP1zAjAGPC

— Otto (@hawkeyeram4life) October 21, 2024

Brendan Sullivan is better at making those throws. It's not to say that Sullivan isn't limited himself, but he is what McNamara was at Michigan with a slightly better arm. Sullivan can move whereas McNamara is as fleet of foot as Peyton Manning now. Sullivan's escapability is going to help against the Wisconsin defense.

(6) Minnesota over Illinois

It took Max Brosmer a little bit to get going, but he has turned Minnesota from a running team into a passing team. Daniel Jackson is a really good receiver who rarely had a chance to showcase his talents with Minnesota's quarterback situation for the last several years.

These two teams are built similarly and they both have their bad losses (or close wins). Illinois needed overtime to beat Purdue. Minnesota lost to Michigan and Iowa. Surprisingly enough, ESPN analytics favors the Gophers in the game for many of the same reasons I do.

You know by now that I expect a close game, so why the higher confidence points? 87% of the public is on Illinois despite ESPN and Vegas favoring Minnesota. I may end up pushing this higher if the public stays this committed to Illinois.

(7) South Alabama over Georgia Southern

I like the Eagles, but I've learned not to go against the Jaguars in Mobile. They just demolished a solid Monroe team that was leading the Fun Belt at the time.

(8) Virginia Tech over Syracuse

The Hokies are finally playing like us over bettors thought they could. Bhayshul Tuten has helped transform this team. The big difference lately is the Virginia Tech defense. They have only allowed 34 points in three games since the tough Miami loss.

Kyle McCord won't have as bad of a week as he did last week, but I can't help but think that Tech is going to force him into a few bad throws as well.

(9) Colorado State over Nevada

The Pack got throttled in Honolulu by an average-at-best Hawaii team. Colorado State's only loss in the last six weeks was in double overtime to Oregon State. These teams are not the same. I don't care if it's in Reno or on the moon, this doesn't feel like a close game even though ESPN analytics heavily favors the Pack (62.8%).

(10) Texas A&M over South Carolina

Why is Mike Elko the right man for the A&M job? Because he was willing to replace the struggling Connor Weigman with Marcel Reed against LSU. It changed the team and maybe the course of the entire season.

Jimbo Fisher would have never done such a thing at halftime in a game. He's not built that way. The Aggies still have everything in front of them after pulling out the LSU game behind Reed.

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