X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump - Christian Arroyo & Denard Span

Rick Lucks previews the fantasy prospects of Christian Arroyo and Denard Span to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.

We have previously seen that both West Coast teams and bad teams are great places to mine for fantasy gold because nobody is keeping up with their games. There is a third category that also goes underappreciated: the Tampa Bay Rays. The team isn't projected to be bad (80-82 projection by Steamer) and they're not out west, yet they never seem to escape the shadows of New York and Boston.

The national media paid attention to the Rays for a couple of minutes this offseason to pan the Evan Longoria trade, but then the team faded back into obscurity. As I argued here, Longoria will not be much of a loss at age 32.

Let's take a closer look at what the team's fantasy- relevant return (Christian Arroyo and Denard Span) looks like.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Christian Arroyo (3B/SS, TB)

Arroyo was dreadful in 135 MLB PAs last season, slashing .192/.244/.304 with three dingers. He was too good at Triple-A before his debut, slashing .396/.461/.604 with four big flies over 102 PAs on the back of a .427 BABIP. His full season Double-A statistics in 2016 (.274/.316/.373, three HR in 517 PAs) also inspire little excitement, rendering Arroyo to a fantasy afterthought at best.

The underlying metrics suggest that Arroyo is much better than you might think he is. While his Triple-A BABIP was unsustainable, the .231 mark he posted with the Giants is due for significant positive regression. In fact, his batted ball profile actually supports a plus BABIP. First, his 18.1% LD% at the MLB level was considerably lower than his 26.9% mark at Triple-A and his 22.4% mark at Double-A. There is every reason to believe Arroyo is at least a league average LD% guy moving forward.

Next, he hits a ton of ground balls (60.6% GB% in MLB sample, 48.8% in full Double-A campaign). This would normally boost a player's BABIP, but Arroyo hit only .140 on grounders last year. He hit them reasonably hard (average exit velocity of 84.8 mph), is completely shift-proof (45.6% Pull% on ground balls), and has slightly above average footspeed (27.1 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed). He should have no problem hitting .250 on grounders in 2018 despite last year's results.

Arroyo's overall BABIP at Double-A was .313, a reasonable expectation for this year. He should make the most of his favorable BABIP by seldom striking out as well. His 23.7% MLB K% last year wasn't special, but the underlying 9.1% SwStr% and 31.3% chase rate suggest he deserved better. He was reasonably aggressive (52.3% Swing%), suggesting that he was not watching too many third strikes go by. He also struck out only 13.9% of the time at Double-A (5.6% BB%), so he has a history of controlling the zone. Arroyo's plate discipline is well beyond his 22 years of age.

Arroyo hit 10 total HR in the past two seasons combined, making him initially appear as nothing more than a batting average play. However, his average airborne exit velocity (93.2 mph) was in the top third of the league (minimum 50 BBE). He also pulled an impressive 30% of his fly balls. This produced a HR/FB of 15% to follow up a 22.2% rate at Triple-A. His launch angle could use some work (3.2% Brls/BBE), but he seems just one adjustment away from hitting 15-20 bombs if the ball remains juiced.

Obviously, escaping San Francisco would help anybody's power game. AT&T Park's 86 HR factor for RHB was the lowest in MLB last year, while Tampa Bay had a roughly average mark of 101. The move isn't as good for Arroyo's batting average (103 vs. 99 in favor of San Francisco), but the increased power output should be more than worth it in fantasy.

Finally, Arroyo has dual positional eligibility in many leagues with 21 games at third base and 10 at SS, a combination that allows you to slot him in at CI and MI as well. Arroyo is an excellent complement to any draft with low-average power studs taken before him and an ideal bench piece in daily leagues thanks to his positional versatility. Best of all, his 2017 line should make him free to acquire.

Verdict: Champ

 

Denard Span (OF, TB)

Span did a little of everything without excelling at anything in 2017, slashing .272/.329/.427 with 12 homers and 12 swipes (seven CS). That makes him a boring fantasy selection, but he's useful roster glue in short bursts or deeper formats.

Let's start with his average. Span never strikes out (12.7% K%, 4.7% SwStr%) and works his fair share of walks (7.4% BB%, 26.4% chase rate), so he rarely gives away PAs. His BABIP was down last year relative to his career total (.295 vs. .314), but it looks like a blip. Span hit just .232 on ground balls vs. .251 career despite no significant change in average exit velocity (82 mph vs. 82.5) or Statcast sprint speed (27.9 ft./sec vs. 28.0 ft./sec) relative to 2016. He doesn't pull enough ground balls to care about the shift (56.8% GB Pull% last year), so it's reasonable to expect a full rebound.

Span replicated his career LD% almost perfectly last season (21.3% vs. 21.7%), but they were less productive (.622 vs. .660). Considering his improved airborne contact quality, this also seems due for a full rebound.

Span hurt his BABIP projection a little by hitting more fly balls last year (33.6% FB% vs. 24.7% in 2016), but this is a positive development for his power. His 8.5% HR/FB was better than his career 5.4% mark, backed by a higher Pull% on fly balls (28.2% vs. 22.3% career) and Statcast Era bests in both average airborne exit velocity (89.3 mph) and rate of Brls/BBE (3.3%). It's worth pointing out that neither of the Statcast metrics are actually good, but at least they're trending in the right direction.

Span also puts so many balls into play that a lot end up in the air even if his FB% isn't that high. This sets him up to benefit tremendously from leaving San Francisco's 75 HR factor for LHB behind him. Tampa Bay also suppresses left-handed power (89 HR factor last year), but it's still a dramatic improvement compared to what Span is accustomed to.

Unlike Arroyo, the park switch for Span could boost his average a little as well (98 vs. 100). Span's home park really seemed to hurt him last year, as he slashed .254/.313/.398 at home vs. .292/.348/.459 on the road.

Finally, Span is projected to hit leadoff, a lineup slot likely to produce enough runs scored to justify his price tag alone. He might be heading into his age 34 season, but he could hit .280 with 15 HR, 20 SB, and a bunch of runs scored for his new team. Not terribly exciting, but nothing to sneeze at either.

Verdict: Champ

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF