X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump - Christian Arroyo & Denard Span

Rick Lucks previews the fantasy prospects of Christian Arroyo and Denard Span to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.

We have previously seen that both West Coast teams and bad teams are great places to mine for fantasy gold because nobody is keeping up with their games. There is a third category that also goes underappreciated: the Tampa Bay Rays. The team isn't projected to be bad (80-82 projection by Steamer) and they're not out west, yet they never seem to escape the shadows of New York and Boston.

The national media paid attention to the Rays for a couple of minutes this offseason to pan the Evan Longoria trade, but then the team faded back into obscurity. As I argued here, Longoria will not be much of a loss at age 32.

Let's take a closer look at what the team's fantasy- relevant return (Christian Arroyo and Denard Span) looks like.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Christian Arroyo (3B/SS, TB)

Arroyo was dreadful in 135 MLB PAs last season, slashing .192/.244/.304 with three dingers. He was too good at Triple-A before his debut, slashing .396/.461/.604 with four big flies over 102 PAs on the back of a .427 BABIP. His full season Double-A statistics in 2016 (.274/.316/.373, three HR in 517 PAs) also inspire little excitement, rendering Arroyo to a fantasy afterthought at best.

The underlying metrics suggest that Arroyo is much better than you might think he is. While his Triple-A BABIP was unsustainable, the .231 mark he posted with the Giants is due for significant positive regression. In fact, his batted ball profile actually supports a plus BABIP. First, his 18.1% LD% at the MLB level was considerably lower than his 26.9% mark at Triple-A and his 22.4% mark at Double-A. There is every reason to believe Arroyo is at least a league average LD% guy moving forward.

Next, he hits a ton of ground balls (60.6% GB% in MLB sample, 48.8% in full Double-A campaign). This would normally boost a player's BABIP, but Arroyo hit only .140 on grounders last year. He hit them reasonably hard (average exit velocity of 84.8 mph), is completely shift-proof (45.6% Pull% on ground balls), and has slightly above average footspeed (27.1 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed). He should have no problem hitting .250 on grounders in 2018 despite last year's results.

Arroyo's overall BABIP at Double-A was .313, a reasonable expectation for this year. He should make the most of his favorable BABIP by seldom striking out as well. His 23.7% MLB K% last year wasn't special, but the underlying 9.1% SwStr% and 31.3% chase rate suggest he deserved better. He was reasonably aggressive (52.3% Swing%), suggesting that he was not watching too many third strikes go by. He also struck out only 13.9% of the time at Double-A (5.6% BB%), so he has a history of controlling the zone. Arroyo's plate discipline is well beyond his 22 years of age.

Arroyo hit 10 total HR in the past two seasons combined, making him initially appear as nothing more than a batting average play. However, his average airborne exit velocity (93.2 mph) was in the top third of the league (minimum 50 BBE). He also pulled an impressive 30% of his fly balls. This produced a HR/FB of 15% to follow up a 22.2% rate at Triple-A. His launch angle could use some work (3.2% Brls/BBE), but he seems just one adjustment away from hitting 15-20 bombs if the ball remains juiced.

Obviously, escaping San Francisco would help anybody's power game. AT&T Park's 86 HR factor for RHB was the lowest in MLB last year, while Tampa Bay had a roughly average mark of 101. The move isn't as good for Arroyo's batting average (103 vs. 99 in favor of San Francisco), but the increased power output should be more than worth it in fantasy.

Finally, Arroyo has dual positional eligibility in many leagues with 21 games at third base and 10 at SS, a combination that allows you to slot him in at CI and MI as well. Arroyo is an excellent complement to any draft with low-average power studs taken before him and an ideal bench piece in daily leagues thanks to his positional versatility. Best of all, his 2017 line should make him free to acquire.

Verdict: Champ

 

Denard Span (OF, TB)

Span did a little of everything without excelling at anything in 2017, slashing .272/.329/.427 with 12 homers and 12 swipes (seven CS). That makes him a boring fantasy selection, but he's useful roster glue in short bursts or deeper formats.

Let's start with his average. Span never strikes out (12.7% K%, 4.7% SwStr%) and works his fair share of walks (7.4% BB%, 26.4% chase rate), so he rarely gives away PAs. His BABIP was down last year relative to his career total (.295 vs. .314), but it looks like a blip. Span hit just .232 on ground balls vs. .251 career despite no significant change in average exit velocity (82 mph vs. 82.5) or Statcast sprint speed (27.9 ft./sec vs. 28.0 ft./sec) relative to 2016. He doesn't pull enough ground balls to care about the shift (56.8% GB Pull% last year), so it's reasonable to expect a full rebound.

Span replicated his career LD% almost perfectly last season (21.3% vs. 21.7%), but they were less productive (.622 vs. .660). Considering his improved airborne contact quality, this also seems due for a full rebound.

Span hurt his BABIP projection a little by hitting more fly balls last year (33.6% FB% vs. 24.7% in 2016), but this is a positive development for his power. His 8.5% HR/FB was better than his career 5.4% mark, backed by a higher Pull% on fly balls (28.2% vs. 22.3% career) and Statcast Era bests in both average airborne exit velocity (89.3 mph) and rate of Brls/BBE (3.3%). It's worth pointing out that neither of the Statcast metrics are actually good, but at least they're trending in the right direction.

Span also puts so many balls into play that a lot end up in the air even if his FB% isn't that high. This sets him up to benefit tremendously from leaving San Francisco's 75 HR factor for LHB behind him. Tampa Bay also suppresses left-handed power (89 HR factor last year), but it's still a dramatic improvement compared to what Span is accustomed to.

Unlike Arroyo, the park switch for Span could boost his average a little as well (98 vs. 100). Span's home park really seemed to hurt him last year, as he slashed .254/.313/.398 at home vs. .292/.348/.459 on the road.

Finally, Span is projected to hit leadoff, a lineup slot likely to produce enough runs scored to justify his price tag alone. He might be heading into his age 34 season, but he could hit .280 with 15 HR, 20 SB, and a bunch of runs scored for his new team. Not terribly exciting, but nothing to sneeze at either.

Verdict: Champ

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
Tyreek Hill

Chiefs, Steelers Eyeing a Trade for Tyreek Hill?
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Chris Godwin

to Be Limited in His Return Thursday
Brock Purdy

Out 2-5 Weeks With Turf Toe
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Kyle Monangai

to See More Carries Going Forward?
Quinshon Judkins

Plans to Practice Thursday
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Will Smith

Scratched With Hand Soreness on Wednesday
Ketel Marte

has Foot Contusion, Expected to Play Friday
Christian McCaffrey

Absent from Wednesday's Practice
Shohei Ohtani

Won't Pitch This Weekend
MacKenzie Gore

to Start on Thursday
Ketel Marte

Exits Early on Wednesday
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Aaron Rodgers

Dealing With Back Tightness
Dallas Goedert

Questionable for Week 2 at Chiefs
Anthony Rizzo

Retires
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Jadeveon Clowney

Visiting With the Cowboys on Wednesday
Masyn Winn

Will Require Offseason Knee Surgery
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Strikes Out 12, Earns 12th Win on Tuesday
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Christian Watson

Agrees to One-Year Contract Extension
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Will Smith

Returns to Dodgers Lineup on Tuesday
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
Kyle Stowers

Dealing With Strained Side
Kyle Tucker

Placed on Injured List With Calf Strain
Jauan Jennings

Considered Day-to-Day, has a Chance to Play in Week 2
Jalen Carter

Receives One-Game Suspension, Will be Eligible for Week 2
Bo Bichette

Goes on Injured List With Knee Sprain
George Kittle

Placed on Injured Reserve
Tyreek Hill

Accused of Domestic Violence
Jauan Jennings

Avoids Serious Shoulder Injury
Garrett Crochet

Shuts Out the Athletics
Royce Lewis

Launches Two Homers Monday Night
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
New York Knicks

Malcolm Brogdon on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers
Miami Heat

Heat Interested in Reunion With Precious Achiuwa
Tyler Glasnow

Fans 11 in Seven No-Hit Innings Monday
Slade Cecconi

Takes No-Hitter Into Eighth Inning Monday
Max Muncy

Batting Cleanup in Return to Dodgers
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Reportedly Declined Knicks' Contract Offer
Younghoe Koo

Falcons Auditioning Kickers, Could Replace Younghoe Koo
Denver Broncos

Sean Payton Says Broncos Need to be Better With Run-Pass Balance
Tank Bigsby

Eagles Acquiring Tank Bigsby From Jaguars on Monday
George Kittle

Likely Out 3-5 Weeks, Could Land on Injured Reserve
Chase Burns

to be Activated on Friday
Brock Purdy

Dealing With Multiple Injuries, Could Miss Week 2
Tyler Glasnow

Cleared to Start on Monday
Logan O'Hoppe

Placed on Concussion Injured List
Christian Yelich

Returning on Monday
Elias Pettersson

Feeling "Good" Ahead of Season
NHL

Alex Formenton Rejoins Swiss Team
NHL

Grigori Denisenko Heads Back Home
CAR

Kevin Labanc Joins Hurricanes for Tryout
Ross Colton

Healthy for Start of Season
Brock Bowers

Considered Day-to-Day With Knee Injury
Caio Borralho

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Nassourdine Imavov

Extends Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy

Gets Submitted
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Taps Out Mauricio Ruffy
Paul Craig

Retires After UFC Paris Loss
Denny Hamlin

Earns his First Cup Victory at Gateway
Kyle Larson

Damage Ruins Kyle Larson's Chance At a Top Finish at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Scores his Third Top-10 Finish at Gateway
Joey Logano

Maintains his Perfect Top-Five Streak at Gateway
Ryan Blaney

Struggles and Recovers for a Top-Five Finish at Gateway
Modestas Bukauskas

Scores First-Round Knockout
Bolaji Oki

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Mason Jones

Scores Comeback Win
Rhys McKee

Suffers Third-Round TKO Loss
Axel Sola

Successful In His UFC Debut
Robert Ruchała

Robert Ruchala Unsuccessful In His UFC Debut
William Gomis

Bounces Back In The Win Column
Chase Elliott

Gets Lucky but Still Has Best Run at Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Wins Stage 2, but Was Let Down by Strategy
Tyler Reddick

Despite Bad Luck, Tyler Reddick Does What he Needed to Do
Chase Briscoe

Recovers from Incident with Daniel Suarez to Finish Second
William Byron

Late Caution Foils William Byron's Shot at Gateway Victory
Jayson Tatum

"Moving Around Way Better"
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Gateway
Denny Hamlin

Fastest in Qualifying, the Favorite to Win at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Looking for Redemption at Gateway
Joey Logano

Has Been Elite at Gateway
Austin Cindric

Should Be On Your Radar at Gateway
AJ Allmendinger

Could Be a Sleeper Again at Gateway
Tyler Reddick

Southern 500 Near-Miss Makes Tyler Reddick a Stronger Option for Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace a Likely Gateway Contender
Alex Bowman

a Long Shot to Advance in Playoffs
Austin Dillon

Richard Childress Racing Looks Slower at Gateway, Which Will Hurt Austin Dillon
Shane Van Gisbergen

Starts 18th in Gateway Debut
Jeremy Swayman

Ready to Get Back on Track
Connor McDavid

Aiming for More Goals
NJ

Luke Glendening Signs Tryout Deal With Devils
Dylan Harper

Hoping to be Ready for the Opener Versus Dallas
EDM

Derek Ryan Retires From Hockey
Connor Zary

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Flames

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP