👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Top-Rated Accuracy
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champs or Chumps: Aaron Nola & Jon Gray

When streaming starting pitchers, there are generally two criteria to choose the best option. The first is the quality of the opposition, as a lesser offense is less likely to hurt your ratios. The second is venue, as fantasy owners look to maximize innings in Kansas City and Miami while avoiding Coors Field like the plague.

The latter point is why Rockies arms are seldom rostered in standard leagues. The same is true to a lesser degree of other hitter-friendly stadiums, such as Philadelphia and Texas. Bad parks can be overcome, however. Pitchers who tame a hostile home offer serious profit potential, as many owners refuse to even consider them on Draft Day. With this upside in mind, let's see if sophomores Aaron Nola and Jonathan Gray are viable fantasy options.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Aaron Nola (SP, PHI) ADP: 172.7

Nola's 2016 was ugly by surface stats, as he posted a 6-9 record and 4.78 ERA. His 3.08 FIP suggests that he deserved far better, a point his identical 3.08 xFIP agrees with. Nola had problems with BABIP (.334) and strand rate (60.6 percent) last season, both of which can be expected to regress toward the league average rate going forward. The biggest problem with pitching in Philly is the long ball, and Nola has it under control.

That might seem weird to say when his HR/FB was right on the league average last year (12.8 percent), but Nola does not limit homers by relying on weak contact. Instead, he controls them by limiting fly balls. Batters managed a FB% of just 24.8 percent against Nola last year thanks primarily to a two-seam fastball with a 61.6 percent GB%. Fantasy owners usually don't love two-seamers, but Nola's is required to pitch effectively in his home park.

The two-seamer only had a SwStr% of 3.1 percent last year, but Nola still put up a sexy 25.1 percent strikeout rate. He managed this with two plus strikeout offerings: a curve (19 percent SwStr%, 45.9 percent chase rate) and a change (12.7 percent SwStr%, 42.2 percent chase). Two plus pitches are usually enough to sustain strong strikeout rates, so Nola figures to contribute in the category in 2017 despite lacking a big heater (5 percent SwStr%).

Wins may be hard to come by on a rebuilding club, but Nola offers the strikeout and ratio upside to help in all formats regardless. If your league counts QS instead of wins, he could be an SP2 this year. Nola offers tremendous value for his current draft price.

Verdict: Champ

 

Jon Gray (SP, COL) ADP: 187.7

Gray's season was a lot like Nola's in that his surface stats (4.61 ERA) were garbage while the underlying metrics (3.60 FIP, 26 percent strikeout rate) were a lot better. He also managed a league average HR/FB, a significant accomplishment for a Coors hurler.

Unlike Citizens Bank Park, Coors Field is not a pitcher torture chamber just because of homers. Stadiums like Arlington are just as bad in terms of home runs allowed. Coors differentiates itself with its thin air and spacious outfield, preventing breaking balls from breaking, sinkers from sinking, and any but the fastest outfielders from catching routine flies.

Gray has the repertoire to meet the Coors challenge. He doesn't throw a sinker or two-seamer, relying instead on a 95-mph fastball that plays anywhere. Its solid 6.8 percent SwStr% ably sets up an absolutely filthy slider (24.1 percent SwStr%, 48.9 percent chase) and competent change (13 percent SwStr%, 38.9 percent chase). His curve is mediocre (10 percent SwStr%, 22.2 percent chase) so it probably gets scrapped soon. The fastball-changeup-slider combination is probably a pitcher's best bet at mitigating the effects of altitude.

Don't shy away from Gray on Draft Day because of his home address. Gray offers strikeout upside and breakout potential that it is tough to find in his current draft slot. The Rockies are an interesting sleeper team for wins this year, and you can always bench him during home stands if you need to. At worst, Gray seems like the ultimate streaming option with upside for much more.

Verdict: Champ




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Top-Rated Accuracy
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Matthew Stafford

a Great Option for Those in Win-Now Mode
Breece Hall

Dynasty Ceiling Capped in New York?
Jaylen Waddle

Restructures his Contract With Broncos
Ryan Pepiot

Placed on Injured List to Open the Season
Trevor Siemian

Signing With the Falcons
J.J. Wetherholt

JJ Wetherholt Likely to Hit Leadoff on Opening Day
Connelly Early

to Make First Start on Sunday
Tucker Kraft

a Post-Injury Buy-Low Candidate
Jakobi Meyers

Vying for Top Spot in Jacksonville Receiver Room
Jayden Higgins

Faces Obstacles in Second Season
Sam LaPorta

New Offensive Philosophy Could Help Sam LaPorta Get Back into Top Tier
Jaylon Tyson

Unavailable Against Magic
Noah Gray

Remains Buried on Kansas City Depth Chart
Jarrett Allen

Still Out Tuesday
Anthony Black

Remains Out Tuesday
Jalen Suggs

to Miss Second Consecutive Game
Kon Knueppel

Probable Tuesday
Nique Clifford

Kings Plan to Re-Evaluate Nique Clifford in One Week
Moses Moody

Stretchered Off With Knee Injury
Luke Clanton

Might Have a Problem in Houston
Sam Stevens

Happy to See Houston This Week
Keith Mitchell

Tries to Rebound After The Players Championship
Will Zalatoris

Returning This Week at Houston
Wyndham Clark

Trending in the Wrong Direction Heading to Houston
Shane Lowry

Seeking Better Luck in Houston This Weekend
Kurt Kitayama

Poised to Bounce Back at the Houston Open
Jake Knapp

More Suited for a Course Like the Houston Open
Tony Finau

Continues Playing Well Heading to Texas Children's Houston Open
Scottie Scheffler

Returns to Action for Texas Children's Houston Open
Sam Burns

Looks to Carry Momentum Into Houston
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Cubs, Pete Crow-Armstrong Finalizing Long-Term Extension
Milwaukee Bucks

Bucks Waive Cam Thomas
Kyle Kuzma

Won't Play Against Clippers
John Collins

Misses Monday's Action
Kawhi Leonard

Available Monday Night
Caleb Martin

Brandon Williams Remain Out Monday
Brandon Ingram

a Late Scratch Versus Jazz
Sahith Theegala

to Rebound at Texas Children's Houston Open
De'Anthony Melton

Moses Moody, De'Anthony Melton Available Monday
Kristaps Porzingis

Ready to Rock Monday
Cody Williams

Ruled Out Monday
Immanuel Quickley

Jamal Shead Starting With Immanuel Quickley Out
Stephan Jaeger

Hopes to Jumpstart Season at Texas Children's Houston Open
Collin Murray-Boyles

Rejoins Raptors Lineup
Adam Scott

Hopes to Get Back on Track in Houston
Drake Powell

Slated to Miss Monday's Matchup With Portland
Peyton Watson

Ruled Out Tuesday
Blake Snell

Targeting a May Return
Obi Toppin

Cleared to Play Against Magic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looks to Carry Hot Play to Houston
Nicolai Hojgaard

to Get Back on Track in Houston
Hunter Greene

Reds Place Hunter Greene on 60-Day Injured List
Chris Gotterup

to be a Popular Choice at Texas Children's Houston Open
Blake Whiteheart

Returns to the Browns
Min Woo Lee

Looks to Keep Strong Season Going in Title Defense in Houston
J.J. Wetherholt

JJ Wetherholt Makes Cardinals Opening Day Roster
NFL

Ty Simpson Expected to be a First-Round Pick
Jake Bobo

Seahawks Match Offer Sheet for Jake Bobo
Tommy DeVito

Becomes QB2 in New England
Quentin Johnston

Chargers Unlikely to Trade Quentin Johnston?
Nick Pivetta

to Start on Opening Day for Padres
Brandon Woodruff

Makes Brewers Opening Day Rotation
Zack Wheeler

to Start Rehab Assignment on Saturday
Carson Benge

Makes Mets Opening Day Roster
D'Andre Swift

Facing Playing-Time Questions Heading into 2026
Travis Kelce

Officially Signs New Contract With the Chiefs
NFL

Can Denzel Boston Overcome Speed and Athleticism Concerns at the NFL Level?
NFL

Jadarian Price's Dynasty Stock is Rising as the 2026 Draft Approaches
NFL

Can Chris Bell Make an Immediate Impact in the NFL?
Seiya Suzuki

to Start the Season on the Injured List
Travis Homer

Signs With Steelers as RB Depth
Lerone Murphy

Suffers His First Loss
Dennis Santana

Won't be Pirates' Primary Closer
Movsar Evloev

Edges Out Lerone Murphy
CFB

Notre Dame Ranks No. 1 in Returning Production for 2026
Michael Aswell

Jr. Drops Decision At UFC London
Michael Aswell

Luke Riley Outclasses Michael Aswell Jr.
DeVonta Smith

Wide Range of Possible Outcomes for DeVonta Smith in 2026
Sam Patterson

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Michael Page

Wins Lackluster Decision
Austen Lane

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Spencer Strider

to Start the Season on Injured List
Iwo Baraniewski

Delivers 28-Second TKO
Lawson Crouse

Picks Up Three Points in Overtime Win
Filip Forsberg

Takes Predators Past Blackhawks
Alex Ovechkin

Scores 1,000th Career Goal
Nate Schmidt

Exits Early Due to Illness
Matt Grzelcyk

to Miss Four-Game Road Trip
Mikko Rantanen

to Return to Full Practice
A.J. Greer

Handed a Three-Game Suspension
Troy Terry

Wins it for Anahiem
Tyler Reddick

Overcomes Adversity for Fourth Victory of the Season At Darlington
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Darlington Victory Despite Domination
Ryan Blaney

Recovers From Pit-Road Struggles to Score Career-Best Darlington Finish
Carson Hocevar

Rallies to Finish Fourth at Darlington
Kyle Larson

Decent Performance Ends with Technical Issues At Darlington
Ilya Sorokin

Earns Shutout Over Columbus
Ethen Frank

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Sunday
Grayson Rodriguez

to Open Season on Injured List
Brett Pesce

Questionable to Return This Season
Stefan Noesen

Done for the Season
Yan Kuznetsov

Misses Fourth Consecutive Game Sunday
Connor Zary

Out Sunday
Mike Trout

Returns on Sunday
Anthony Duclair

Misses Sunday's Game
Ryan Pulock

Unavailable Sunday
Nick Lodolo

Exits Early With a Blister
Jeremy Peña

Astros Not Ruling Out Jeremy Pena for Opening Day
Cristopher Sánchez

Phillies Sign Cristopher Sanchez to a Six-Year Extension
Tyler Reddick

the Clear Favorite at Darlington
Kyle Stowers

Placed on Injured List with Hamstring Strain
Kyle Larson

a High-Risk, High-Reward Driver at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Is Getting Better at Darlington
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not Slowing Down at Darlington
Chris Buescher

Should be a Top-10 Contender at Darlington
Austin Cindric

a Sleeper at Darlington
Erik Jones

Quickest in Practice at Darlington
Morgan Geekie

Records Three Assists Against Red Wings
Steven Stamkos

Notches Three Points in Win Over Golden Knights
Cole Caufield

Records Career-High Five Points in Saturday's Win
Denny Hamlin

Qualifies Ninth for this Week's Cup Race at Darlington
Chase Briscoe

Is One of the Top DFS Options of the Week for Darlington
Nikita Kucherov

Takes Over Scoring Lead With Four-Point Effort
Tyler Tucker

Out Week-to-Week
William Byron

Is William Byron A Playable DFS Option for Darlington Lineups?
Christopher Bell

Could Christopher Bell be Considered A Decent DFS Option for Darlington?
Chase Elliott

Is Chase Elliott Worth Rostering At Darlington This Week For DFS?
Joey Logano

May Not Have the Speed to Warrant A Darlington DFS Lineup Spot
Ross Chastain

Should DFS Players Trust Ross Chastain at Darlington?
Kyle Busch

Could Kyle Busch Be A Worthy DFS Option for Darlington?
Brad Keselowski

May be A Contriarian DFS Tournament Option At Darlington
Seiya Suzuki

Won't be Ready for Opening Day
Lerone Murphy

Set For UFC London Main Event
Movsar Evloev

Looks To Remain Unbeaten
Michael Aswell

Jr. An Underdog At UFC London
Luke Riley

Set For UFC London Co-Main Event
Sam Patterson

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Michael Page

Set For Welterweight Bout
Austen Lane

In Dire Need Of Victory
Iwo Baraniewski

A Favorite At UFC London
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF