X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Can Christian McCaffrey Improve on 2017?

You had to wonder what Christian McCaffrey was going to bring to the Carolina Panthers offense last season when they selected him eighth overall in the 2017 draft. Even though McCaffrey was a star at Stanford, there were concerns regarding his ability to perform at the NFL level as a true between-the-tackles running back. Would he be able to produce on the ground or would his impact be limited to his ability to catch the ball?

In PPR leagues, McCaffrey was able to produce a very good season in 2017, finishing as the RB10 thanks to his 80 receptions. When you look at only standard scoring, McCaffrey fell some, finishing as the RB15. For McCaffrey to truly take the next step in his career, he will need to grow in the running game. McCaffrey only finished with 435 rushing yards on 117 attempts, good for 3.7 yards per carry, which ranked 37th among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts.

If McCaffrey is truly destined for stardom, he will need to turn into an all-around running back that will carries a workload on the ground and through the air, but can he sustain last year’s performance now that the team has added C.J. Anderson?

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

 

The Missing Link - Greg Olsen

One of the biggest losses in football last season was Greg Olsen. He wasn’t the biggest name to hit the shelf, but he meant just as much to his team as others who missed significant time. The Panthers were only 5-4 in games Olsen missed last season. He is very underrated, not just from a fantasy football standpoint, but an actual football standpoint and what he means to his team.

While missing Olsen last year may have negatively affected the Panthers as a whole, it was beneficial to McCaffrey’s stat line. While Olsen was out, McCaffrey became a safety blanket for Cam Newton, becoming that go to receiver. With Olsen back and healthy though, will Newton look to him once again or will McCaffrey still be able to grab some of those targets? The numbers say McCaffrey would be much more successful without Olsen on the field.

Targets Receptions Yards
with Olsen (7 Games) 5.7 3.8 36.7
w/o Olsen (9 Games) 8.1 5.8 43.7
*Avg per game

The differences may not seem like a lot, but a lot of little differences make one large one when the season is over. McCaffrey is a freak athlete that can make almost anyone miss once he has the ball in his hands. Seeing almost three less targets a game could really add up. Just one less target is one less time McCaffrey doesn’t have the ball and doesn’t have the chance to carve out a huge play.

The receptions are a large one in PPR leagues. That is where McCaffrey was a huge asset last year. The drop from RB10 to RB15, which I mentioned above, doesn’t seem like much. However, McCaffrey scored 80 more points in PPR leagues last year, or 5 points per game. We have all had that week, where we barely scratched out a victory. A point either way would have meant landing in the loss column instead of win column. Two less receptions a game over the course of a 16-game schedule in PPR leagues, is a 32-point difference, which would have dropped him from RB10 to RB14. Even the stone handed Jordan Howard would have finished above McCaffrey last season.  What else could affect this though?

 

The Receivers Receive Backup

The receivers in Carolina last season did not look great on paper and they did not produce much either. Injuries to Olsen and Curtis Samuel were an issue, then the Panthers decided to trade Kelvin Benjamin as well. McCaffrey didn’t need to fight for targets with anyone but Devin Funchess, and while he had a breakout season, McCaffrey still had more receptions and targets than him.

McCaffrey led all running backs in targets last season and was one of only three running backs in the NFL to lead his team in targets. LeSean McCoy and Duke Johnson also took advantage of underwhelming receivers to load up on targets. McCoy is the only one of the three I could see doing this again. Johnson and McCaffrey both have much improved receivers around them.

The Panthers biggest addition is D.J. Moore, who they selected in the first round of the draft this year. He was the most talented receiver in this draft, and even though I am hesitant to say he makes an immediate impact, he will still find himself with more targets than the WR2 from last season, who was Benjamin with 51. Funchess and Moore alone would be a huge improvement, but they will also have a full season from Samuel and they signed veteran free agent Torrey Smith to come in and stretch the field. The Panthers made a concentrated effort to ensure Newton has more weapons in 2018.

Carolina receivers who were not named Funchess combined for 155 receptions last season. Of the 492 attempts Newton had in 2017, McCaffrey accounted for just over 22% of those targets. So, while it is hard to expect anyone to repeat those kind of numbers as a running back, the most important part for McCaffrey to take the next step isn’t through the air, it’s on the ground. It looks like Carolina may not have been that confident in McCaffrey either.

 

Welcome CJ Anderson

We waited all off-season for the Panthers to make a move at running back and it didn’t look like they would. Finally, the Denver Broncos decided to walk away from C.J. Anderson and the Panthers decided this was their guy. Anderson took a lot of grief in Denver the past two years, but he was a lot better than advertised and still has something left. Last season, Jonathan Stewart lead the Panthers backfield with 198 attempts, but was not very effective and only averaged 3.4 yards per carry, which was worse than McCaffrey. Anderson, who has averaged at least four yards per carry since entering the NFL, will likely replace Stewart in that role and will bring more production with it.

Anderson has a good chance to sneak into that back-half RB2 status this season. If he can get at least 200 carries this season at his career average of 4.4 YPC, he’ll have 880 yards rushing. If the run game is productive with Anderson and Newton, will the Panthers try to get McCaffrey more than his 117 attempts from last season? Well, that brings me to my next point.

 

The Newton Effect

Any running back that lands in Carolina must deal with the Newton effect. This is when running backs lose carries and goal-line touches because his quarterback is a better weapon than him. Newton has 754 yards on 139 attempts last season. The next two closest quarterbacks in rushing attempts were Russell Wilson with 95 and Tyrod Taylor with 91. Those extra attempts Newton has every game will always limit his running backs. At some point, Newton will need to realize this, but he has already dealt with enough injuries in his career that it’s apparent he doesn’t care about that on game day. I’m not knocking Newton for it, because it’s part of the reason he is such a good quarterback, but I don’t see an end to Newton’s days of running the football and taking goal-line carries away.

 

Where Will McCaffrey Finish?

While I sit around and listen to everyone debate second year running backs on Twitter, I am always amazed that McCaffrey doesn’t come up with more concerns. I hear all the concerns about Kareem Hunt’s workload, Joe Mixon’s ineffectiveness and head coach, Dalvin Cook’s knee injury or Alvin Kamara and his inability to replicate last year’s highly efficient performance. I hardly ever see anyone raise a concern about McCaffrey. What is the concern though?

The concern is that McCaffrey has nowhere to go but down. The workload he received last year was ridiculous by most standards. It would take another set of unfortunate circumstances to put McCaffrey in a position to get that many targets again. Evan Engram is being devalued because fantasy owners know all the injuries from last year led to increased targets. Why not the same for McCaffrey? Add to that, it doesn’t appear much room for growth in the running game is coming for McCaffrey either.

McCaffrey is a RB10 again in PPR leagues and that is best case scenario. When I draft players or trade for them, it’s because I believe at worst, they will be consistent producers at a level of years past. For McCaffrey, it would take another season of injuries and trades plus ineffective play from other running backs to allow him to even stay at his current level. Even in PPR leagues, I see McCaffrey falling outside the top 10 and becoming a RB2 instead. If you buy, do so with expectations that his production just can’t be matched again in 2018.

 

More 2018 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF