RADIO
The Power Surgers/Fallers Tool is still in its infancy, but RotoBaller subscribers are realizing the value that this tool can provide. This week we are taking a look at two players from each table in search of power hitter buy/sell opportunities.
Power Risers
Carlos Gomez +8.3% Power Average Difference
The first six weeks of 2016 were a nightmare for Carlos Gomez. He was one of the worst players in baseball in April, and May was not much better . When he was placed on the disabled list on May 15 with a rib cage injury, Gomez was slashing a gruesome .182/.238/.248 with no home runs and just five RBI in 132 plate appearances. After a disappointing 2015 season fantasy owners quickly lost patience with the Astros outfielder, and his ownership took a nosedive.
The healthy version of Gomez has been a completely different hitter in the 13 games since returning from the disabled list. Going back to May 31, Gomez is slashing .283/.365/.500 with 3 home runs, 7 RBI and a .217 ISO. His 35% K% has been stable all season, and is far above his career high, but Gomez has been walking more.
The improvements in his batted ball profile are the most encouraging aspects of his play lately. In the first six weeks of the season, Gomez hit line drives in just 17% of his balls in play. In the last 13 games, that rate has been 40.7%. His hard contact percentage has improved from 24.7% before the injury to 50% in June. Gomez is also pulling pitches significantly more, with an increase to 57% from 36% earlier in the year.
Fantasy owners seem to have been slow to recognize the resurgence with Gomez. His ownership is still just 72% in Fleaflicker leagues, and 70% in Yahoo. He might not be 2013 Carlos Gomez anymore, but he should definitely be on the radar for owners looking for power on the cheap.
Carlos Santana +7.3% Power Average Difference
Carlos Santana has been mashing some taters for the division-leading Indians lately. Of his 14 home runs for the season, five have come in the last 14 days. His .547 slugging percentage and .321 ISO in that span is certainly impressive, but his batted ball profile shows exactly how much damage Santana has been inflicting on baseballs. For the season, he has hit line drives on just 14% of balls in play, but that has increased to 20% in the last 14 games. He has also pulled 65% of balls in play, and made hard contact on 55%.
Santana has the profile of a typical power hitter except for his 13% K%. That percentage has increased during his home run binge in the last two weeks, but he still has walked more than he has struck out for the season. His ability to make contact has prompted the Indians to hit Santana in the leadoff spot in 28 games so far this season. Those extra at bats give him more opportunities to go yard, and increase his future fantasy value.
Santana is only hitting .226 and has a career average of .244. He also has a career BABIP of just .266, so that current BABIP of .211 will not increase as high as one might expect. However, fantasy owners with high-average hitters should consider buying Santana as a cheap power source.
Power Fallers
Mark Trumbo -6.4% Power Average Difference
Coming into the season, the monster years that Mark Trumbo posted in 2012 and 2013 seemed far in the past. His resurgent performance has been one of the big stories of 2016 so far, and for good reason. His 20 homers has him tied for the major league lead, and he is fourth in the American League in RBI. The savvy fantasy owner knows that this is the time to sell high on Trumbo.
Trumbo has established a pattern throughout his career of swinging a hot bat in the first half of the season, and disappearing in the second half. Over 3041 career plate appearances, Trumbo has an .820 OPS in the first half and a .709 OPS in the second half. He has 98 home runs in the first half to just 53 in the second half. For whatever reason, he has always been a first half hitter. That is no guarantee that he will do the same this year, but his 26% HR/FB is unsustainable regardless.
Trumbo is slashing .279/.330/.555 for the season, but he has experienced a slow down. In the last 14 days, he has three home runs, but none in his last 39 plate appearances. He has also pulled pitches on just 28% of balls in play, and his K% is above 30%. Although we are looking at small samples, regression is no doubt coming for Trumbo, and we could be witnessing the beginning right now.
Nick Castellanos -4.7% Power Average Difference
Tigers fans and fantasy owners have been waiting for the 44th overall pick from the 2010 draft to break out, and 2016 is looking like the year for Nick Castellanos. He hit 15 homers in 595 plate appearances in 2015, but has 13 already in 262 appearances this year. Unfortunately for his owners, Castellanos has cooled off quickly after his hot start.
Of his 13 homers on the season, Castellanos has hit five in the last month, and three in the last two weeks. On the surface that level of production looks fine, but Castellanos has been benefiting from an inflated 16.7% HR/FB. Though the homers have still been there, he has hit just .222 in the last 13 games with a 25% K%. When combined with his .357 BABIP for the season, regression is on the way for the Tigers third baseman.
Castellanos is a talented young player and does not come with a hard sell recommendation like Trumbo, but owners should take advantage of league competitors that are willing to overpay for his services.
