RADIO
Pierre Camus takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in MLB week 24. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2018 fantasy baseball season.
The baseball season is on its last legs, but it's never too late to buy or sell from the plethora of talented players available in fantasy baseball waiver pools. Instead of trading assets with other owners, you can "buy" players that have been overlooked or recently discarded on the wire. In this case, think of it as a short-term investment that comes at a low cost (you did save at least a couple bucks of FAAB for the final month, right?)
Rather than trade candidates, I'll focus on players that appear to be trending up or down, but could soon be headed in opposite directions. In other words, we'll find some undervalued and overvalued players for you to target in free agency, or the trade market if your league still allows.
As always, I will never advocate that you buy or sell a player if I wouldn't follow the same advice myself. Now, time to assess some fantasy values.
Undervalued Players - Week 24
Shohei Ohtani (Util, LAA) 40% owned
This will be the first and most likely last time I recommend adding a player who was just advised to undergo Tommy John surgery, but we all know by now that Ohtani is an exception to every rule in the book. First, the issue is related to his pitching motion and doesn't seem to be affecting his swing too much, as evidenced by his four home runs in three games since the announcement. Second, he may not have the surgery at all. There was an indication that Ohtani had damage to his UCL before the season even began, but opted for PRP treatment instead. He may buck the modern trend of simply using TJ as a cure-all. Finally, there's a good chance he waits until this season is over, which is all we care about right now anyway outside of dynasty leagues. Grab him if he's been dropped and see if he can provide some pop at the utility spot a few days a week while others are too nervous to touch him.
Kevin Kiermaier (OF, TB) 17% owned
Call me a sucker, but I'm not giving up on Kiermaier, even toward the end of the season. Maybe it's the fact he's 9-for-16 with three HR and seven RBI in the past week. No steals in the mix and it's doubtful he'll run too much in order to preserve his fragile body, but Kiermaier is now a middle-of-the-order bat anyway. Rather than a cheap source of steals with some power in the mix, he looks to provide a steady diet of RBI and R instead. There is nothing urgent about this pickup, but he still presents a fair level of five-cat upside that most other lightly owned outfielders don't.
Mikie Mahtook (OF, DET) 1% owned
A semi-popular deep sleeper before the season, Mahtook got off to a rough start and has failed to stay healthy since, registering as many as 50 at-bats in a month for the first time in August (51). He's warming up at the plate lately, with five HR in the past two weeks and has been bumped up to fifth in the batting order. As the starting left fielder on a non-contender, Mahtook will be able to swing freely and surely put together some big nights on occasion. While he's hit for average in a couple of minor league stops, the main appeal here is a developing power stroke amidst a climbing fly ball rate. Owners in H2H leagues could use him for choice matchups, as the Tigers have several games against the Twins and Royals coming up after this week.
Trevor Williams (SP/RP, PIT) 58% owned
If Williams is still available in almost half of all fantasy baseball leagues, then a lot of people aren't paying attention (or gave up because they aren't competitive any longer). He's left a clean sheet on the scoreboard in his past two starts and no ER allowed in six of his last nine starts. He has far from dominating stuff, with a fastball that averages 91.7 MPH and a 7.5% Swinging Strike rate that is not only well below league average, it's declining each season. It might seem as if he's living on borrowed time, with a low 8.8% HR/FB and a 4.87 SIERA that is well above his 3.15 ERA. Some pitchers are able to underwhelm and get away with it, however, and Williams seems to have found his comfort zone by pitching to contact and using his low-velocity fastball more frequently this season. If you need strikeout help, he's not your guy, but he's become this year's version of Ivan Nova from the first half of last season, which could be useful.
Overvalued Players - Week 24
Robinson Cano (1B/2B, SEA) 84% owned
It's hard to keep a former All-Star on a good team out of your lineup, but that's what I've done for the past month. Like many owners, I picked up Cano weeks before he came off suspension and stashed him for the stretch run. Yet, I can't find a reason to start him over my other infield options in a 12-team league. Over the past 30 days, he's delivered just three homers and eight RBI. Despite his new first base eligibility, he still ranks lower than Matt Olson, who's at least driven in 14 runs since last month. We saw signs of a decline last year and then an 80-game absence threw a wrench into this season. It may be time to accept that he's not an everyday fantasy starter anymore.
Franmil Reyes (OF, SD) 33% owned
Wait, doesn't he belong in the other section? Reyes is coming off a 10-game hitting streak and has rocked six homers in the last two weeks, but he won't keep it up long. He is batting .316 since being recalled a month ago, but his season average is just at .258 and his minor league numbers suggest that's about right for him. The homers are certainly helpful, but it should be noted that five of those last six HR have been solo shots. The Padres don't have enough offensive juice to make Reyes more than a high-upside DFS play when facing LHP, against whom he hits 100 points higher. In season-long leagues, you should approach him the same way where daily lineups are in play.
Sean Doolittle (RP, WAS) 83% owned
In any league counting saves where the category battle is close or in weekly head-to-head leagues, you'll likely rush to get Doolittle back in your lineup if you own him. He is officially back off the DL after missing nearly two months of action. While he hasn't necessarily lost his job, there are other issues at play here. Two months of rust is never good, especially for a pitcher who only sees one inning of action on average. All it takes is one bad outing to blow up your ratios. He also might not be thrust back into the closer job right away as he works back into game shape. I won't mention risk of re-injury because one would hope he was only activated once 100%, but this is also isn't Doolittle's first time on the shelf. If you've had him in a DL spot this whole time, you aren't dropping him now, but be patient before trusting him in your lineup at least.
