RADIO
The Cleveland Browns have a highly-rated offensive line, one of the toughest-to-tackle running backs, and a decent wide receiver room. If their quarterback can play half-decent, they should have a good season.
The Browns made some additions to their wide receiver room, trading for Elijah Moore and drafting Cedric Tillman. Still, their WR corps was only ranked as No. 22 by PFF. Tillman will have to breakout or Moore, who averaged 1.75 yards per route run as a rookie, will have to return to his 2021 self if they are to shine.
But perhaps the Browns' biggest strength will be their defense. A sleigh of pass rushers they brought in this offseason will make their talented defensive backs look better, too. They won't need to maintain coverage for as long periods of time.
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Fantasy Football Breakout: Cedric Tillman
Cedric Tillman is one of the best pure wide receivers to be drafted in 2023. He catches every ball that comes his way. He is good at establishing leverage and outmaneuvering defensive backs. At 6’3″, 213 pounds, he is bigger than most of the other rookie wide receivers and can jump higher (37″ vertical).
He didn't have his chance to show it at Tennessee because he missed half of the 2022 season. But as a junior, Tillman caught 64 passes for 1,081 yards and 12 touchdowns. Last season in six games, he caught 37 passes for 417 yards. This includes a nine-catch, 162-yard showing at Pittsburgh and a nine-catch, 81-yard, and two-touchdown outing at South Carolina.
Unlike his teammate Elijah Moore, whom the Browns acquired from the Jets after he demanded more targets, Tillman is used to sharing the spotlight. He lined up in stacked formations with Jalin Hyatt, who was schemed to get open deep.
Tillman won't be a target hog on the Browns. He'll start out behind Amari Cooper, Moore, and Donovan Peoples-Jones on the depth chart. But he could carve out a role for himself as a chain-mover, and he could move up the pecking order.
Fantasy Football Bust: Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb is not going to be the RB1 in PPR. It's just not going to happen. Last season, he set a career-high in rushing yards with 1,525, and he finished as the RB6 in PPR. He didn't even come close to finishing RB1 in standard scoring. At RB5, he was 35 points behind Josh Jacobs.
My colleague Frank Dyevoich, however, is predicting an RB1 season from the low-end pass-catcher. He's joined by others like Joe Beldner.
His ADP hasn't gone crazy yet; he's going around RB5. In one crazy National Fantasy Championship draft, Chubb went No. 3 overall. He is a possible RB5 finisher, although that is probably at the high end of his potential outcomes. It's quite possible that some or all of the following RBs who are being drafted behind Chubb on average could finish ahead of him: Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Let's examine the arguments for Chubb to finish RB1 and why it won't happen. First of all, Chubb is one of the best runners in the league. Steelers defensive lineman Alex Highsmith says he is one of the most difficult in the league to bring down. He averages 5.2 yards per carry in his career. But that has all been true every year of his career.
His average yards per attempt hit a career-high of 5.6 in 2020, and it has declined in subsequent years to 5.5 and then 5.0 yards per carry last season. At nearly age 28, Chubb is not dropping off, but he is past his prime. He is not going to set a new career-high in yards per carry or broken tackles.
The second argument is that Kareem Hunt left the Browns, but it is unlikely Chubb will get many more carries than he did last season when he set a career-high in attempts and placed third in the league in attempts. Even if he led the league with 350 attempts, he only would have had about 200 more rushing yards for just over 20 more points, vaulting him from RB6 to... ...RB6.
He has caught 20 or fewer passes in three of his five seasons, and his average yards per catch of 8.3 is lower than the top-end receiving backs.
The Browns' offense will not be much better than it was last year if washed-up quarterback Deshaun Watson, who didn't look like he made much improvement over the course of last season, continues playing like he did. There's not much room for improvement in the touchdown category.
Chubb will do about as well as he has been doing year in and year out. He'll finish in the middle of the top 12 RBs, and he could be a good pick if you draft him behind Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and Bijan Robinson. But if you are expecting Chubb to be RB1, expect to be disappointed.
Fantasy Football Lock: Myles Garrett and Browns DST
It is hard to find a lock on the offensive side of the ball. Amari Cooper continues to produce as a solid WR1. He had his third 1,000-yard season in the past four years. But his PPR scoring declined from 16.2 to 11.6 when Deshaun Watson was starting.
TE David Njoku's production also declined when Watson was behind center. Watson might turn it around, but it is impossible to say any of the Browns' receivers are locks when their quarterback play is so unreliable.
However, if you look at the defensive side of the ball, the Browns have some proven destroyers who will make opposing quarterbacks live on the turf. Let's start with edge rusher Myles Garrett. Garrett has made double-digit sacks for five straight seasons, including 12.0+ sacks in four of those seasons. He has continuously increased his combined tackle total and tackles for losses in each of the past three seasons.
Garrett is a lock to finish as one of the top three defensive ends in IDP fantasy football. The Browns DST will be one of the best in standard fantasy leagues.
Playmakers are all over on the defensive line of the Browns. They lost the unproductive Jadeveon Clowney and replaced him with Za'Darius Smith and Ogbo Okoronkwo. Smith has made double-digit sacks in each of his past three healthy seasons. Okoronkwo has improved each season and last year made 5.0 sacks in just 500 snaps. New DT Dalvin Tomlinson has made over 2.5 sacks from the interior in each of the past four years.
The Browns finished as the DST12 last season, and more sacks and fewer points should be allowed this season. They should finish as a clear-cut top-12 DST. Their ADP of DST16 on NFC is far later than where they should be.
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