Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 3

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! I want to open up the Week 3 edition by taking a minute to look back at Week 2, as I believe part of being a fundamentally sound DFS player is self-evaluation. As part of my own personal self-examination, I have to be willing to take any "L's" that happen along the way and I think that's a fair label to put on my results in Week 2. I don't want to speak for anyone else in the DFS industry, but I think our tendency as writers and analysts is to focus on getting our readers "the best plays". For instance, last week's Break The Slate article was littered with pieces from the Cowboys vs Chargers game, a matchup that featured two high-powered offenses, a high projected point total, and a seemingly perfect game environment. In other words, some of "the best plays" that were available on the Week 2 Main Slate. However, after some reflection, I don't know that those picks were the right choice for this particular article, an article that's focused on "breaking the slate". So while it may sound counterintuitive, what I want to focus on in this article each week going forward isn't necessarily the best plays, but rather, the plays that are best suited to helping you win a GPP.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 3. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 3 Picks

Russell Wilson - SEA @ MIN ($7,600)

I’ve often been reluctant to pull the trigger on Russell Wilson in DFS in the past, because Seattle’s outdated offensive philosophy forced him to be so hyper-efficient in order to post a tournament-winning score. While we had hoped that would change this season, Russ has only attempted 54 passes through Seattle’s first two games...not exactly a record-breaking pace. 

All that said, I am willing to bet on Wilson in this spot against Minnesota for a couple of reasons:

A.) The Vikings boast a juicy combination of a bad defense with an offense that is dangerous. Minny has scored 57 combined points over their first two games and comes in with a projected team total of just under 27 points this week, while their defense has allowed 61 points, the fifth-most in the league.

B.) This Seattle defense looks exploitable. The Seahawks D ranks bottom-10 in the NFL in both passing and rushing yards allowed.   

Basically, we’re never really worried about Wilson’s talent, but instead the type of game environment that he’ll be playing in. This week’s matchup with Minnesota sets up as a recipe for a “Let Russ Cook” type of outing.

Josh Allen - WAS @ BUF ($7,000)

Two games and two relative duds from Josh Allen. It’s undoubtedly been a sluggish start for one of the breakout stars of 2021. As a result, his DK price tag has steadily declined and now stands at $7k for his Week 3 matchup against the Washington Football Team. I’m always interested in “buying the dip” on explosive players and that’s where we find ourselves with Allen ahead of this slate, as his DFS price - and the public’s confidence in him - might be at the lowest point we’ll see all season.

In Week 3, Allen draws a matchup against a WFT squad that was expected to be an extremely good defensive unit heading into the season. That may well prove to be the case by the end of the season, but to this point, Washington has looked middling-at-best against opposing signal callers, allowing 337 passing yards to Justin Herbert in Week 1 and 29.5 DK points to *checks notes* Daniel Jones last week. The performance against Jones is notable due to the damage he was able to do on the ground (95 rushing yards and a TD on nine runs). WFT has allowed 7.23 yards per carry to opposing QBs, the second-most in the NFL through two weeks. 

We know that Allen is an exceptional runner (5.2 yards per carry for his career on an average of 6.8 rushing attempts per game), but he’s yet to truly break loose on the ground through two games. I expect to see some positive TD regression for him in that area and look for this potentially explosive (Allen ranks third in the NFL in Total Air Yards with 801 yards), pass-happy Bills offense to break out sooner rather than later.

SATURDAY UPDATE: High-priced options like Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson are all squarely in play of course, but there are lots of juicy - and cheap - options at the QB position on this slate. Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins don't bring any rushing floor to the table, but both of these traditional drop-back QBs are in desirable game environments. Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill has been relatively quiet to open the season but a bet on Tannehill and this Titans passing attack, rather than on a popular Derrick Henry, is a really intriguing line to take in GPPs. Daniel Jones seems to be a fairly buzzy play around the DFS industry, and it's with good reason, as he brings a trio of positive factors to the table - price, matchup, rushing ability. The QB that will square off against Jones, Atlanta's Matt Ryan, might be completely washed, though he reminded us last week that he's still capable of throwing for 300 yards and giving us a useable DFS score. Bears rookie Justin Fields will get the start against Cleveland...I love the price and his rushing ability, though he might fall into the "just lock him into cash game lineups" category for me.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 3 Picks

Austin Ekeler - LAC @ KC ($7,200)

Many will look at Austin Ekeler’s meager nine rushing attempts in Week 2 and shy away due to the perceived lack of volume. It’s fair to say that Ekeler’s role to this point hasn’t been what many had hoped. But make no mistake, he remains the man in this Chargers backfield and will continue to produce either on the ground or through the air. His Week 3 matchup against Kansas City is a tempting one. The Chiefs rank DEAD LAST in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and rush defense DVOA. While Ekeler might not be the focal point that many expected, this matchup that carries a 55.5 O/U will provide him with plenty of opportunities to rack up DK points.

Saquon Barkley - ATL @ NYG ($6,500)

If we’re looking for “buy low” spots, Saquon Barkley’s price tag has cratered to $6.5k for Week 3 after he opened the season at $7.8k. If we’re a little lucky the price decrease might just coincide with a workload increase. New York has taken a prudent strategy with Barkley, choosing to ease him in as he works his way back from an injury that ended his 2020 season. However, we’ve seen his role in this offense already beginning to increase. He played just 48% of the Giants’ offensive snaps in Week 1, but that number jumped up to 84% in Week 2. The only RBs that played a larger percentage of their team’s offensive snaps in Week 2 were Najee Harris (95%) and Alvin Kamara (84%). His total opportunities also trended in the right direction, going from 13 in the season opener to 16 last week. 

Barkley flashed some of his old form with a 41-yard run against Washington and draws a Week 3 matchup against an Atlanta defense that has allowed 4.63 yards per carry to opposing RBs through their first two games, a mark that ranks 25th in the NFL.

SATURDAY UPDATE: As we head into Week 3, it's #InjurySZN at the RB position, and there's a couple of spots that I'll be keeping a close eye on, chief among them Dalvin Cook and Darrell Henderson Jr. If one or both can't go, their respective back-ups, Alexander Mattison and Sony Michel, would immediately jump into consideration as viable, albeit chalky, salary savers. Recency bias will send ownership flocking to Derrick Henry, though it's tough to ignore that he's in a smash spot with a reasonable price tag. Could Alvin Kamara be this week's Derrick Henry? He's coming off an abysmal Week 2 performance and draws an ugly-on-paper matchup against New England, but as we know, Kamara's ceiling is as high as anyone in football and his ownership will be down. I like the idea of pairing Nick Chubb opposite Justin Fields. Najee Harris will continue to dominate the Pittsburgh backfield and makes sense as a safe, locked-in-role consideration. Ty'Son Williams has looked explosive and draws a dreamy matchup against Detroit, with the only concern being how much Latavious Murray will eat into his workload. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been a big point of discussion in the fantasy community this week...I don't have a strong take here, other than to say his ceiling feels limited from a week-to-week macro perspective, but from a Week 3 micro perspective the price tag is certainly reasonable and the matchup against the Chargers is a good one.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 3 Picks

Adam Thielen - SEA @ MIN ($6,700)

As I write this I don't yet have a super-clear picture of how ownership will shake out in Week 3 (check back for Saturday Updates!), but I expect it to congregate on a handful of players at the WR position. With Cooper Kupp's monster performance last week (and in the season opener for that matter), his reasonable price tag, and a nice matchup, I look for him to be the most popular receiver on the slate. A really intriguing direct pivot from Kupp at $6.8k is Minnesota's Adam Thielen at $6.7k. While many eyes will be on Minny's Dalvin Cook this week, we shouldn't sleep on this Vikings passing attack, of which Thielen is an integral part (he's played 97% of Minnesota's offensive snaps to this point). He's been targeted 17 times over Minnesota's first two games and is producing at a nice clip, posting DK totals of 30.2 and 15.9. Seattle has been middling-at-best against the pass and currently stands 22nd in the league in yards allowed per pass.

A.J. Brown - IND @ TEN ($6,500) 

SATURDAY UPDATE: I feel like I could spend this entire article's space on the WR position this week, as there are a lot of popular spots that truly feel like "good chalk", as well as some intriguing pivot plays with upside. But that said, we'll try to rip through here with as few words as possible...Tyreek Hill is always in consideration, as is DeAndre Hopkins. I highlighted Josh Allen in the QB section this week and I think an explosion is coming from this Bills offense soon, so I'll certainly have some Stefon Diggs exposure (as well as Sanders & Beasley to a lesser extent) and will run it back with Terry McLaurin in most cases. I'll be grabbing all the pieces I can from a couple of marquee matchups: SEA (Lockett, Metcalf) vs MIN (Jefferson, Thielen, Osborn) & TB (Evans & Godwin) vs LAR (Kupp & Woods). These will be popular options, but I'll attempt to differentiate my rosters in other spots when using them. I'm also intrigued with the ATL vs NYG environment and will look to get Calvin Ridley & Sterling Shepard into some builds. Injuries to Diontae Johnson and Tee Higgins draw my eyes to the remaining Pitt/Cincy receiving corps. Jacksonville's Marvin Jones Jr. has been a target monster and that should once again be the case against the Cardinals...he's simply too cheap.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 3 Picks

Travis Kelce - LAC @ KC ($8,200)

Those of you that read this column regularly are familiar with "The Kelce Rule" (If Travis Kelce is playing on the Main Slate, you play him, no matter his price or matchup). After posting DK scores of 25.6 and 26.9 in KC's first two, it certainly remains in effect on this slate.

T.J. Hockenson - BAL @ DET ($5,200)

If you can't afford Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson is a fine stand-in this week. At $5.2k, Hockenson represents the top option in this Detroit offense that features no receivers of note. He's run 90 routes and been targeted 20 times over Detroit's first two games, marks that trail only Darren Waller's 91 routes and 26 targets among tight ends. Surprisingly, the Ravens rank in the cellar of the NFL when it comes to defending the TE position this season, though we should probably take into account that they've faced Darren Waller and Travis Kelce through two contests. At the end of the day, Hockenson is a TE that is the top priority in his team's passing attack, something that's a true rarity at the position.

Mark Andrews - BAL @ DET ($5,000) 

I don't head into this article with a certain "theme" in mind, but as we wrap up this week's edition it's clear to me that "buy low on talented players" has been a recurring thread in Week 3. We might as well close things out with another, as Baltimore TE Mark Andrews has been quiet as a church mouse to open the year, but is a player capable of exploding for a monster score on any given Sunday. I actually came to this play due to a conversation with my buddy "Thunder" Dan Palyo on this week's edition of the RotoBaller NFL DFS Roundtable, a show that I really encourage you guys to check out each week. As we well know, Andrews is a glorified receiver and has run routes on 100% of his offensive snaps this season. He's only been targeted 10 times through Baltimore's first two, but this week's matchup against Detroit should force Lamar Jackson to look his way, as the Lions are last in the league (by a fairly wide margin) in yards per target allowed to opposing TEs.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Darren Waller's final tally in Week 2 didn't blow us away, but we should remember that he's practically the WR1 in this Raiders offense and will continue to soak up tons of targets. I've been slow to hop on the Gronk train and won't start now, as it feels like some TD regression is coming at some point. I am interested in the TE on the other side of that matchup, however, as the Rams' Tyler Higbee has been on the field for all 111 of L.A.'s offensive snaps this season and comes in at just $4k! As I've mentioned throughout this week's article, the ATL vs NYG game is a target spot for me on this slate, so I'll continue riding Kyle Pitts in a good matchup, as the usage has been rock-solid for the rookie through the first two weeks of the season.

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