RADIO
New York Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo is a 2020 fantasy baseball draft value. His ADP is undervalued, making him a potential draft bargain and late-round sleeper to target.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~ 260
CURRENT ADP: ~327 overall
ANALYSIS: Brandon Nimmo showed a lot of positive signs during his breakout 2018 season. His marginal power took a significant step forward, hitting 17 home runs across 535 plate appearances. Nimmo not only continued to walk at a very high rate but his 26.2% K-rate was nearly two points lower than the year before. The end result was a strong .263/.404/.483 line, though his season was eventually cut short due to neck issues.
Nimmo got off to a slow start in 2019, as he was hitting just .200/.344/.323 when the neck problem resurfaced, knocking him out of action for more than three months. He returned in September to hit .261 with five home runs and two steals over 93 plate-appearances, showing that he still brings some upside to the table when he's healthy.
Nimmo was batting .379 through 33 plate appearances this spring when things came to a halt, albeit with a .440 BABIP, and was getting good reports from scouts. He may cede some time to Jake Marisnick against left-handed pitching, but even in a crowded outfield, he looks like a good bet to lead off regularly against right-handers.
It's pretty clear that Nimmo's 2019 season was affected by injury, not just the counting stats due to the missed time, but in the on-field results as well. He is going at pick 327 in NFBC drafts this year, a significant discount from his 185 ADP a season ago. The chance of recurrence of the neck issue is at least a little concerning, but Nimmo should definitely bounce back in 2020. Over the course of a full season, it wouldn't be shocking to see him end up with 20-plus homers and double-digit stolen bases.
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