Bounceback Hitters: Fantasy Baseball ADP Values for Outfielders (2025)

All major league teams are back in camp, college baseball is fully underway, and fantasy baseball draft season is in full swing. It's a glorious time of year.

One key aspect to having a good draft and succeeding in fantasy baseball is identifying which players could bounce back who disappointed the previous season for one reason or another. That could be due to poor performance, injury, or a combination of the two.

After discussing five bounceback infielders previously, I'm heading to the outfield today to discuss five more bounceback hitters for 2025 who I believe are good values at their respective ADPs.

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Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets

ADP: ~188

One of my favorite outfielders to target each year is Brandon Nimmo, and that's not going to change this year. There's a good chance that Nimmo's ADP around pick 190 will look like a great value at the end of the season, and I'd even be willing to jump that ADP a round or two to get him on my roster.

After hitting .274 in both 2022 and 2023, Nimmo's AVG dropped 50 points to .224, along with a .327 OBP and .399 SLG. All three of those were easily Nimmo's lowest marks over the last five seasons, but a bit of poor luck played into the surface stats.

After having a BABIP in the .317 to .366 range in each of the last four seasons, Nimmo's BABIP fell to .267 in 2024, which is 27 points below his previous career-worst BABIP.

And even with the lower AVG and OBP, Nimmo was still easily a top 100 player last season, according to the RazzBall Player Rater.

Players with 20+ R and 20+ RBI in June.

Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Ketel Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Shohei Ohtani, Lane Thomas

This is primarily a Brandon Nimmo tweet. He had a really strong June.#LGMpic.twitter.com/YMQXG9xb4u

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) July 1, 2024

All of Nimmo's 2024 metrics were in line with previous seasons as well. He posted an 88.2 percent zone and 78.7 percent overall contact rate with an 11.6 percent walk rate, 23.8 percent strikeout rate, and 47.4 percent hard-hit rate.

Nimmo even added a career-best 15 steals. And while I'm not expecting that many steals again, even eight to 10 steals would be a welcomed output from Nimmo, along with positive BABIP and AVG regression.

Overall, Nimmo has the skills to have a career-best year in 2025, and it wouldn't shock me at all if he finished the season with around 20-25 home runs, eight to 10 steals, more than 80 runs, and RBI, and a return to his previous level of AVG and OBP. I'll take this profile all day at an ADP of 188.

Jung Hoo Lee, San Francisco Giants

ADP: ~238

Jung Hoo Lee's debut season was cut short after only 158 plate appearances following a collision with the outfield wall, which required season-ending shoulder surgery. Now 100 percent healthy, Lee is a good draft day value outside the top 200 picks and one of my favorite bounceback targets entering 2025.

In 158 plate appearances last season, Lee slashed a pedestrian .262/.310/.331, but several underlying metrics make him an intriguing target at cost.

For hitters with at least 150 plate appearances, Lee had the fourth-best zone contact rate (95.5 percent), third-best contact rate (91.5 percent), and the third-lowest swinging strike rate (3.7 percent). The only two hitters better than him in all three metrics were Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan.

Outside of his elite contact and approach, Lee also had a 79th percentile sprint speed, an 89.1 mph AVG EV, and a 41.8 percent hard-hit rate last season.

I'm not expecting major contributions in the power and speed departments, but could he flirt with 15 home runs and 20 steals over a full season? Absolutely. Lee should hit in the upper third of the Giants order as well and could be a steady five-category contributor who stands out in the AVG department.

Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: ~282

One thing that we need to keep in mind is that Jordan Walker is still only 22 years old and younger than around a quarter of my current top 100 prospects, including top-10-caliber prospects like Chase DeLauter, Matt Shaw, and Coby Mayo. Walker is only 14 days older than Dylan Crews and 37 days older than Kristian Campbell, who are both inside my top five overall for prospect rankings.

Walker was brought up at the age of 20 back in 2023, and while he's flashed his lofty upside, it's been a mostly inconsistent last two seasons for the 6-foot-6 outfielder. In 643 combined plate appearances between 2023 and 2024, Walker has slashed .255/.317/.423 with 21 home runs and eight steals. However, there are still plenty of metrics under the hood that provide optimism for Walker moving forward.

Jordan Walker, last 10 games in Triple-A...

48 PA, .357/.417/.691, 5 2B, 3 HR#ForTheLou pic.twitter.com/Jlpm4lHvui

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) August 5, 2024

To start, Walker has hit the ball hard at the major league level and posted a 9.5 percent barrel rate, 91.2 mph AVG EV, and 43.1 percent hard-hit rate with St. Louis last season. Walker also had an above-average 84.6 percent zone contact rate and a 78th-percentile sprint speed.

However, the negatives were a 69.9 percent contact rate, a 14.9 percent swinging strike rate, and a 28.1 percent strikeout rate. Walker still hits too many ground balls, which limits his in-game power output despite the good quality of contact metrics.

While Walker still has areas to work on, the upside is still there to be an impact fantasy bat, and he should have a chance to start regularly for St. Louis this season. At his near 300 ADP, I'm more than ok with taking a shot on the upside.

Evan Carter, Texas Rangers

ADP: ~284

While the back issues concern me, I believe there's more potential reward than risk when drafting Evan Carter close to pick 300. The back issues zapped his power last season, but I'm focusing more on the power he showed in the minors and his first major league stint back in late 2023, along with some contact and approach improvements we saw last season.

In 2023, Carter posted a 10.3 percent barrel rate, 89 mph AVG EV, and a 46.2 percent hard-hit rate. But he also struck out in 32 percent of his plate appearances with a 75.5 percent zone and 69.6 percent overall contact rate. These were far lower than the 89 percent zone and 75 percent overall contact rates he had in the minors.

Fortunately, the contact rates bounced back to 88.5 percent in zone and 78.1 percent overall last season, along with an 8.5 percent swinging strike rate. The problem was that Carter wasn't impacting the ball nearly as much, which caused the low .188/.272/.361 slash line.

As long as he can stay relatively healthy in 2025, I'm banking on a big bounceback season from Carter. He's risky, given the back issues, but that's more than baked into his ADP this season. If healthy, the skills are here for Carter to provide top 100 overall value.

Heston Kjerstad, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: ~352

Including Heston Kjerstad here isn't your typical "bounceback" candidate as he didn't perform poorly last season, but he gets a shout-out here as I believe he bounces back from being in playing time purgatory at the major league level.

Recently, Baltimore's executive vice president and general manager, Mike Elias, said that Kjerstad has "earned the right to get a lot of at-bats in the corner outfield and in the DH spot, specifically against right-handed pitching."

Baltimore skipper Brandon Hyde echoed a similar sentiment, which is encouraging for anyone considering drafting Kjerstad this season.

Heston Kjerstad still leads the International League in RBI despite sitting on Baltimore's bench for three weeks.#Birdlandpic.twitter.com/vkyYIaboY0

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) June 16, 2024

In 114 plate appearances with Baltimore last season, Kjerstad hit .253 with four home runs, but he was only used sporadically and bounced back and forth between the minors and majors a few times. In his limited major league time, Kjerstad has recorded a 9.3 percent barrel rate, 90.7 mph AVG EV, and a 46.5 percent hard-hit rate.

Kjerstad has always shown impressive power and was around a 75 percent contact rate in each of his last two minor league seasons.

The playing time is the major X factor here, but if Kjerstad can approach 500 plate appearances, his blend of contact and power could help him return to top 200 value this season.

Other Bounceback Candidates

• Luis Robert, CWS
• Randy Arozarena, SEA
• Mike Trout, LAA
• Josh Lowe, TB
• Kerry Carpenter, DET
• TJ Friedl, CIN

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