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Chris Gregory identifies his top boom and bust running back picks for 2020 fantasy football drafts based on ADP.
Many fantasy football managers are familiar with the concept of “boom” and “bust” players by now. “Boom” guys are your overachievers. They are the guys from high school who were voted the most likely to clean porta-potties for a living, and yet they ended up becoming the most tenured Senator in Washington. In fantasy terms, these are the guys whose Average Draft Position (ADP) is significantly lower than where they will likely finish the season.
“Bust” guys are the opposite of booms. They are the high school superstars who were voted the most likely to succeed, but ended up huffing paint in a box (a.k.a. their home) behind a Dairy Queen five years later. In fantasy terms, these are the guys who are unlikely to return good value at their current ADP.
So who are the running backs most likely to become the Jeff Bezos of fantasy, and who is bound to be selling cars in Tucson instead of playing NFL football next season? Read on to find out.
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In Full Boom
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
ADP of 47 overall
The upside of this former Badger is clear as day.
In his three seasons at Wisconsin, Taylor showed elite balance, speed, and elusiveness on his way averaging more than 2,000 rushing yards per season. It is insane to average over 2,000 yards over three seasons, just in case you didn’t know. What’s even more impressive is the fact he exceeded expectations at the NFL Combine too, proving he had the top end physical profile to back up his crush-worthy film.
There are downsides to Taylor’s game, though.
The former Heisman candidate fumbled on nearly 2% of his college carries, which is twice as much as your average starting NFL back. He also had very little experience pass blocking and receiving at Wisconsin, so there are questions about how quickly he can adapt to those parts of the game as a rookie. Of additional concern is the fact that Marlon Mack is penciled in as the starter in Indianapolis, per Head Coach Frank Reich. Mack is a talented runner in his own right, and he should do enough with his early-season touches to hold onto at least 30-40% of the backfield snaps for most of the season.
All of this said, Taylor is an elite talent who will see a healthy snap share behind be an offensive line that returns all five starters from a 2019 unit that ranked as the 12th best offensive line by Football Outsiders. That line rated seventh-best in power run blocking ratings, and it ranked fourth in its ability to create second-level yardage for its backs. That blocking, along with an improved passing game with Philip Rivers at quarterback, should provide a healthy soil in which Taylor's explosive skills can grow.
Expect the Colts’ rookie to outperform players like Melvin Gordon, Le’Veon Bell, and Todd Gurley this season, all of whom are being taken ahead of him, according to Rotoballer’s industry-wide ADPs.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
ADP of 91.7 overall
There is a strong argument that J.K. Dobbins is the best draft value in all of fantasy football this year.
No player going in the eighth or ninth rounds of fantasy drafts has Dobbins' upside. He possesses an elite mix of burst, balance, elusiveness, and pass-catching ability. It is almost unfair to think that such a talented player will be playing with both an MVP quarterback who keeps defenses honest and an offensive line ranked third-best in the NFL in 2019 by Fantasy Outsiders. If Dobbins were the clear cut starter on this team, he would be an easy top-10 redraft and dynasty choice.
Even if he isn't the unquestioned starter, however, there is reason to believe that Dobbins and Ingram can match the same type of production that Alvin Kamara and Ingram sported during Kamara’s rookie year. This Baltimore offense is nearly as good, if not just as good, as that Saints team was. Plus, Dobbins should be heavily involved in the offense early in the season, per John Harbaugh’s statement that the rookie will see a “significant role” in their offense from the get-go. That talent and opportunity combo spells success.
If Dobbins can net even 20% of the rushing attempts that Baltimore had last season, that would translate to 120 rushes. If he could add another 50 targets to that over the season, that will translate into significant fantasy production. Given his talent and the potential for even more involvement, if Ingram were to go down, Dobbins is a bargain at his current ADP (34th RB selected in redrafts). He should be the ideal target for Zero-RB enthusiasts, as well as those utilizing an RB-Heavy model.
Expect Dobbins to finish the year as a top-25 back, far exceeding his current ADP.
Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles
ADP of 141 overall
Scott isn't a sexy name or a sexy pick in fantasy. He is firmly stuck behind Miles Sanders on the Philadelphia depth chart, and Philly has mentioned using Sanders as an every-down back this season. Scott isn't an elite athlete, nor does he have any history as a primary NFL rusher, either.
With that said, Scott has more fantasy upside than many think.
The first reason to believe that Scott has standalone fantasy value is that Doug Pederson has never actually utilized a workhorse back during his time in Philadelphia. Even last season, when Miles Sanders took over as the lead back, Scott maintained a role in this offense. As a matter of fact, during the time that Sanders as the Eagles’ starter (Weeks 14-the Wild Card Game), Scott averaged 8.8 rushes and 5.6 targets per game. If you were to factor out Week 17, when Sanders was limited by injury, Scott still averaged nearly 12 touches per game during Weeks 14-16 and in the playoffs.
This sort of involvement, even when Sanders was proving himself a legitimate starter, indicates that Scott should expect around 10-12 touches every week in 2020.
The second reason to like Scott’s independent value is that he put up substantial fantasy numbers with those 12 touches per week he was getting. From Week 14 through the playoffs, Scott gained 79.6 total yards (rushing + receiving) per game. He also scored four touchdowns in those five games. If you were to project those stats out over a full season, it would translate to 1,273.6 total yards and 12.8 TDs.
While fantasy owners shouldn’t expect Scott to total 1,200 yards and 12 TDs this season without Sanders going down, he does have some standalone value this year. He has the chance to become Philly's goal-line back, considering Sanders was ineffective in that role, and he can provide RB2 upside if Sanders were to go down. That type of ceiling and floor is worth an investment several rounds earlier than his current ADP of 141st overall.
Bound to Bust
Le'Veon Bell, New York Jets
ADP of 38 overall
Before his release, Leonard Fournette was the top bust on this list. That seems like low-hanging fruit since his release, however. So here we are with Bell as our highest-drafted RB bust of 2020.
There are a few reasons to think Bell will bust in 2020, much like he did last year. For starters, Bell did just that… he busted last year. When a 28-year-old back has the worst season of his career, it is rare for him to rebound and become elite again. While some expect a bounce-back because the Jets added Mekhi Becton and Connor McGovern to their offensive line this year, this is still the same coaching staff who vocally questioned Bell’s worth in 2019 and 2020, and it is the same scheme that didn’t fit him last season. This team also may be no better at the skill positions than they were last year, with Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman, and Chris Herndon each dealing with injuries over the past month.
That spells a lot of attention on Bell and little on anyone else.
Another concern for Bell is his style of play. He is a patient and instinctive runner who has excelled only when he and his offensive line are on the same page. With what looks to be three new starters on this offensive line, it will take time for Bell to mesh with this blocking unit, even if they are improved over last year. The problem is, the former Steeler star isn’t getting a lot of reps in camp with this new unit, per his own Twitter feed, and he won’t have any pre-season games to get acclimated with them, either.
Bell is being drafted as the RB17 in PPR drafts, near where he finished in PPR last year (RB16) and much higher than where he finished in standard scoring (RB21). That means he is currently being drafted at or above his ceiling, and well above his floor. That is the boilerplate recipe for a draft bust.
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP of 79.7 overall
Jones has been a pretty trendy pick in many circles all summer, thanks to a decent showing last season and his pedigree as a former second-round pick in the NFL Draft. That said, fantasy managers seem to like Jones a lot more than his current head coach does.
Last year, Bruce Arians showed ZERO qualms about pulling Jones any time he messed up. Whether it was a dropped pass, a fumble, or being stonewalled at the line, Arians appeared to pull the kid immediately after. If you watched full Tampa Bay games, Arians didn't seem to give Peyton Barber nearly the short rope that he gave Jones. In fact, Barber was still averaging over 30% of the team’s RB snaps late last year, when Jones was far outperforming him in both the run and passing game. Meanwhile, Jones saw a 50% or higher snap share in only three of 16 games last season.
Of additional concern to Jones' fantasy value is that the team is investing heavily in his position right now. They invested a significant draft pick this year in Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and they have now signed Leonard Fournette as well. That sort of interest indicates a severe lack of interest in the guy they currently have as their lead back.
Considering where Jones is going in drafts, and the snap share he is likely to get this year, he is a prime bust candidate. Do not expect him to outperform Zack Moss, J.K. Dobbins, Tyler Higbee, or any other number of players going after him in drafts.
*Note: This article was written before Fournette reportedly agreed to terms with the Buccaneers. One should expect Jones' ADP to drop after this move, as well as his production. Given the RB depth in Tampa now, both Jones and Fournette are still massive bust candidates at their current ADP and several rounds after that.
Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
ADP of 87.3 overall
Tarik Cohen is a very nice bench player in PPR leagues, but he lacks the ceiling that his ADP suggests.
Consider that the ‘Human Joystick’ caught an impressive 79 passes last season, and yet he collected only 700 total yards and three TDs. That production landed Cohen as the RB27 in PPR scoring in 2019. He scored only 9.9 more PPR points than Duke Johnson, and only 17 PPR points more than Adrian Peterson or Jamaal Williams. That isn’t impressive company, and Cohen isn’t likely to do much better in 2020. Expect the Bears to funnel most of their rushing work through David Montgomery or some other bigger back. Meanwhile, the presence of Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller should cap Cohen's pass-catching ceiling at what it has been, if not lower. He will provide you with 4-5 catches for 30-40 yards each week, but he will likely need a big play to get much more.
That’s a decent floor for an RB4, but it’s a crumby ceiling for a guy going in the eighth round. You can get the same out of Chris Thompson several rounds later than where Cohen is going now. That, and the players going behind him (Deebo, Dobbins, etc.) make Cohen a legit bust candidate, considering his price.
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