MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/12/2025)

September 12, 2025

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/12/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Carson Kelly, Josh Bell, David Fry, and Jackson Chourio.

It is a typically large slate for this Friday, September 12, 2025, which means we can look to take advantage of hitters in plenty of excellent conditions. Tonight, we have hitters with great pitching matchups as well as some solid parks where home runs are more prevalent. There are numerous good spots to consider, but we need to narrow down the selections, which is exactly what I will attempt to do in this article.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use these plays in a round robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, September 12, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/12/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, September 12:

• Carson Kelly, Chicago Cubs
• Josh Bell, Washington Nationals
• David Fry, Cleveland Guardians
• Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers

Carson Kelly OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+561 DraftKings)

As usual on Fridays, I like to kick the article off with a play at Wrigley Field when we have an afternoon game, and that is the case today as the Cubs take on the Rays. Carson Kelly has been on fire recently, as he has posted an OPS of 1.107 with three home runs over the previous week. 

On the season, Kelly has also crushed 17 total home runs, 12 of which have come off the arm of right-handed pitchers, like Shane Baz, who he will be up against this afternoon. While Kelly’s power metrics leave a bit to be desired, he is posting a Barrels/PA mark of 7.2%, which ranks him in the top 27% of the league. This play is mainly focused on the fact that Kelly has been hot lately and has a pretty solid matchup to go deep against Baz.

On the season, Baz has given up a whopping 26 home runs, 17 of which have been hit by right-handed hitters. These home run totals are not all that surprising once we take a deeper look into the metrics.

Overall, Baz has allowed an average exit velocity of 82.7 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 27% of the league. He has also allowed a Barrels/BBE mark of 5.4%, ranking him in the bottom 26% of the league. Baz has also allowed multiple home runs in six different starts this season, including allowing a ridiculous five home runs in one game against the Yankees on August 19. Once Baz is done, he will also give way to a Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen that has allowed the 8th-most home runs to opposing hitters. 

Carson Kelly ties the game with a solo HR off Chris Sale 💣 pic.twitter.com/xJqRSnTe0h

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) September 11, 2025

Josh Bell OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+454 DraftKings)

I honestly did not expect that I would be writing up Josh Bell this morning, but here we are, as he has a pretty solid matchup to go deep against Pittsburgh Pirates’ right-hander Mitch Keller. 

Mitch Keller has not been awful per se this season, but he has allowed a total of 17 long balls. He has also given up a home run in four consecutive starts, and has given up his fair share of hard contact to hitters.

Overall, Keller has allowed an average exit velocity of 82.5 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 34% of the league. He has also allowed 24.7% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, ranking him in the bottom 34% of the league as well. Of the 17 home runs he has given up, 10 of them have come against left-handed hitters, which is where Bell will be batting tonight.

Bell, meanwhile, has been on a solid tear recently, as he has posted an OPS of 1.482 with four home runs over the previous week. On the season, Bell has also mashed 20 total home runs, 16 of which have come against right-handed pitching. 

The power metrics also look pretty solid for Bell. He has posted an average exit velocity of 90.1 mph, which ranks him in the top 35% of the league. He has also posted a hard hit rate of 34.7%, ranking him in the top 37% of the league. His Barrels/PA mark checks in at 8.4% and ranks him inside the top 12% of the league. 

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David Fry OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)

I am going to try to get a bit creative here with David Fry. Admittedly, I am a big Cleveland Guardians fan, so I certainly hope this comes to fruition, but he also has a solid chance to go deep tonight at home against White Sox left-hander Martin Perez.

While Perez has allowed just four home runs across his 45 ⅔ innings pitched this season, all four of the home runs have come off right-handed bats like David Fry, and three of the four home runs have been given up on the road.

Additionally, Perez’s power metrics do not look all that sharp. On the season, he has allowed an average exit velocity of 83.4 mph, ranking him in the bottom 8% of the league. He has also allowed a ridiculous 11.1% Barrels/BBE mark, which ranks him in the bottom 1% of the league. Finally, he has allowed 28.9% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom 5% of the league.

Enter Fry, who has hit a total of seven home runs this season, five of which have come off left-handed pitchers. This should come as no surprise, as Fry has been known to be somewhat of a lefty masher. Since 2023, he has posted an OPS of .823 vs. left-handed pitchers across 324 PA, and has also hit 16 of his 25  home runs over that span against them. 

This is definitely a flyer of a home run selection, as Fry is a candidate to get replaced once the bullpen enters the game, especially if the White Sox decide to bring in a right-handed arm from the pen. That being said, this is a White Sox pen that has allowed a total of 66 home runs this season, ranking them in the bottom half of the league. 

David Fry and Johnathan Rodríguez homer in a @CleGuardians win at home. pic.twitter.com/HYazoiJbK0

— MLB (@MLB) July 19, 2025

Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+351 DraftKings)

We are going to wrap up today’s article with Jackson Chourio, who has been on fire recently, posting a .981 OPS with three home runs over the previous two weeks. Chourio will be up against St. Louis Cardinals’ right-hander Andre Pallante, which should be a solid matchup for a possible home run.

Chourio has hit righties well this season, having hit 14 of his 20 home runs against them. Overall, Chourio has posted pretty solid power metrics, with his hard hit rate currently sitting at 36.2%, ranking him in the top 26% of the league. He has also posted a respectable 6.6% Barrels/PA mark, ranking him in the top 35% of the league.

Pallante, on the other hand, has not done well in the power allowed department. Overall, he has allowed an average exit velocity of 83.1 mph, ranking him in the bottom 15% of the league. He has also allowed 27.2% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom 12% of the league.

In total, Pallante has allowed 20 home runs, half of which have come against right-handed hitters. He has also allowed a home run in six of his previous seven starts. 

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