Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 4

August 18, 2020

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?" Each week, we look at lower-owned starting pitchers who have performed unexpectedly well in their last outing(s).

Something's fishy about this week's group...it's the Marlins! Miami has quietly built one of the most intriguing young staffs in the league, and we're taking a deep dive down south to break down Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez. We'll also take a trip out west to check out Merrill Kelly's dominance in the desert.

Ownership is based on Yahoo leagues and is accurate as of 08/17/2020. The goal of this article is to look at pitchers who are either still widely available or were hot waiver wire pickups after good starts, and to analyze whether they're a flash-in-the-pan or if there's any staying power.

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Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

60% Owned

2019 Stats: 183.1 IP, 4.42 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 13% K-BB%

08/14 vs SD: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Between Robbie Ray, Luke Weaver, and Madison Bumgarner, the Diamondbacks have had a lot to be concerned about with their starting rotation this year. One pitcher they haven’t had to worry about is Merrill Kelly, who put up zeroes last time out against San Diego, and now sports a dazzling 1.71 ERA through four starts. The Padres are probably sick of Kelly too, since Kelly has faced them in his last two starts and allowed just one run to cross the plate over 12.2 innings. With a 1.71 ERA, three wins, and four quality starts under his belt already, many fantasy owners are wondering if we’ve stumbled onto a short season breakout.

Kelly gets it done with a five-pitch arsenal, consisting of a four-seamer, two-seamer, changeup, cutter, and curveball. Kelly’s arsenal may seem deep, but it’s sort of like the menu at a Cheesecake Factory. Yeah, there’s a lot there, but none of it is very good. His best pitch is probably the banana cream—err, I mean, the curveball. Kelly’s curveball has held batters to a .222 AVG this season, along with an 11.5% SwStr rate and zero extra base hits allowed. The results have been decent, but the pitch has about league average movement and has been getting smoked by opposing hitters for a 93.5 MPH average exit velocity. Here are a few examples of the curveball from this season.

It’s not a bad pitch, but it’s also not something that will completely befuddle hitters and probably can't be relied on for consistent strikeouts. Kelly doesn’t really have a breaking ball that’s capable of generating above average swing-and-miss, which is why his strikeout rate is only 21.6%, nearly 2% lower than league average.

What’s disheartening is that Kelly doesn’t have anything better in his back pocket. He’s gotten decent results out of his cutter at times, but with a .407 xBA (.250 actual BA) and .885 xSLG (.688 actual SLG), it’s not a pitch he can rely on regularly. His fastball zooms in at 92.2 MPH, which is far from impressive in today’s game. Kelly is usable in the right matchup, but at the end of the day his stuff just isn’t special, and he’s not taking a step towards stardom. His .233 BABIP and 100% LOB rate are a big reason for his success thus far.

Verdict: Kelly has looked good thus far, but the raw stuff is underwhelming and he seems to have benefited from good fortune thus far. One positive is that the Dbacks trust Kelly to pitch deep into games, and he could get you some quality starts or wins, even if they aren't great for your ratios. He is streamable in positive matchups, but I’d look to sell high if you can. His next start is at Oakland, which is a good pitcher’s ballpark but a tough lineup and he should probably be avoided in that one.

Pablo Lopez, Miami Marlins

2019 Stats: 111.1 IP, 5.09 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 14.5%

08/14 vs. ATL: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

The Marlins have a lot of interesting young pitchers on their team right now, and perhaps no one more exciting than Pablo Lopez. Lopez has carved up opponents through three starts this season, and sports a cool 2.25 ERA and a 28.4% strikeout rate thus far. Lopez gets it done with five pitches, a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, curveball, cutter, and changeup. Lopez may throw the same pitches as the aforementioned Merrill Kelly, but the two have drastically different strengths and styles. While Kelly uses his changeup as a show-me pitch, the changeup has been the catalyst for success for Pablo Lopez.

Lopez’s changeup has brought opposing batters to their knees, as hitters have mustered just a .154 AVG and .039 ISO against the pitch, along with a monster 30% SwStr rate. And if the strikeouts weren’t impressive enough, Lopez’s changeup also has a 75% groundball rate this season. Even if you manage to hit this thing, chances are it’ll be straight into the dirt. The changeup is mostly responsible for Lopez’s 17% overall SwStr rate, which is second best among qualified pitchers behind just Shane Bieber. Lopez’s changeup was his best pitch last season, but Lopez has improved his movement, spin, and velocity on the pitch this year to account for better results. Rather that spit out a bunch of numbers, let’s take a look at a few changeups from his start in Baltimore earlier this year.

It’s truly a marvelous offering, and good enough to be used against both right and left-handed batters. Few pitchers have a changeup that transcends being a show-me pitch to help with opposite-handed hitters and becomes a primary and dominant breaking ball, and Lopez looks to have it.

Outside of his changeup, Lopez rolled out a new offering this year, a 90 MPH cutter. He’s been using the pitch about 10% of the time. Batters have hit well against the pitch with a .375 AVG, but his .196 xBA and 86.1 MPH average exit velocity suggest better results could be on the way. The pitch has slightly above average drop and velocity, but is far from being a dominant offering at this point. Still, it’s nice to see him add another piece to his arsenal, and could give Lopez another reliable secondary pitch to compliment his fastball-change-curveball mix.

Speaking of the fastball, Lopez fires it in at 93.5 MPH on average and batters have a .221 xBA against the pitch. What’s most impressive about the pitch is its 85.2 MPH average exit velocity. Lopez has routinely induced soft contact over the course of his young career, and while that’s a skill that usually takes several full seasons of data to normalize, Lopez is certainly trending in the right direction. Altogether, there’s a lot to like about what Lopez has done this season, and the fact that he’s owned in just 27% of leagues is a crime.

Verdict: Lopez is doing everything we like to see out of a young pitcher. He’s improved on his best pitch for an elite strikeout rate, he’s added a new pitch to round out his repertoire, and he’s getting good contact and results with his fastball. He’s worth adding in 12-team leagues or deeper.

Elieser Hernandez, Miami Marlins

2019 Stats: 82.1 IP, 5.03 ERA, 5.58 FIP, 16.7% K-BB%

08/16 vs. ATL: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 9 K

We have yet another young Marlins hurler who put up an impressive showing this weekend against the Braves. Maybe it’s just that Atlanta’s lineup sans Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies is pitiful, but Miami starters Pablo Lopez, Daniel Castano, and Elieser Hernandez held Atlanta to a combined three runs between them. We already talked about Lopez, and Castano still has a ways to go before reaching mixed league radars, but Hernandez has been doing me interesting things dating back to last year.

Hernandez is a two-pitch pitcher, using hist fastball and slider almost exclusively. He has thrown 10 changeups this year, but it’s just a pitch he’ll use occasionally against left-handed hitters. It’s all about the fastball and slider with Hernandez, and the slider is a good one. It comes in slowing, at about 79 MPH, but has the second most drop of any slider in the league. Hernandez transformed the pitch last season, slowing it down a few MPH but greatly increasing the drop and RPM on the pitch, turning more into a slurve. The results have been fantastic as well, as batters have hit just .143 against the pitch with an 18.2% whiff rate since the beginning of 2019. Here are a few from this most recent start.

Pretty impressive stuff from Hernandez, and batters have struggled to keep up with the pitch this year, with a .100 AVG and 20.45% whiff rate thus far. This is a pitch that can be relied on for strikeouts, and if nothing else we could expect Hernandez to maintain an above average strikeout rate because of his slider.

The issue with Hernandez lies in the rest of his repertoire, or lack thereof. His only other pitch is a four-seam fastball, and it comes in around just 91 MPH. Batters have only hit .206 with a .202 xBA thus far, but last season they hit .297 with a .259 xBA, so it’s hard to trust the fastball results through three starts. He does generate a 26% infield fly ball rate with the pitch thanks to a 24-degree average launch angle against, but that launch angle has also been Herandez’s Achilles heel throughout his career. Hernandez had a horrible case of Gopheritis last season, allowing 2.19 HR/9, which was the ninth-worst rate among pitchers with at least 80 innings last year despite pitching half his games in Marlins Park, one of the best stadiums to keep the ball in the yard. Hernandez is an extreme flyball pitcher, sporting a 49.1% flyball rate last year and has a 52.9% rate this year. It’s hard to see him maintaining his 5.6% HR/FB ratio all season, and if that ratio trends towards league average Hernandez could be in for a rude awakening.

Verdict: Hernandez’s slider looks like the real deal, but he doesn’t have much else to fall back on. I’d be interested in him as a spot starter, especially if I was lacking in strikeouts, but he’s not a set-and-forget player yet. Hernandez could be a hot sleeper next year if there are rumblings of a new pitch or changeup development during the spring.

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