Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 4

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 4, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit, or just smoke and mirrors.

April is behind us, which officially means all numbers are real. Anyone on a hot streak is a certified break out, while anyone in a slump should be considered a bust. Kidding, but it is true that players and teams are starting to settle in for the 2022 season and we at least have an idea of where teams and players stand. This week we're looking at three pitchers who not only had surprising starts over the weekend, but surprised throughout the month of April. We'll break down the performances of Colorado's Chad Kuhl, Arizona's Merrill Kelly, and Tampa Bay's Corey Kluber.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 5/2/22.

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Chad Kuhl, Colorado Rockies – 42% Rostered

2021 Stats: 80.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 5.31 FIP, 9.5% K-BB%

04/30 vs. CIN: 7.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

It’s not often that a move to Colorado benefits a pitcher’s career, but Kuhl has looked like a whole new player in the Mile High City. He is 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA through his first four starts, including two wins in Coors Field. Kuhl never really garnered much attention in Pittsburgh, but he’s on fantasy radars now. Should you join all the Kuhl Chads by picking him up, or is he better left on the wire?

A longtime Pittsburgh Pirate, Kuhl seemed like nothing more than a low ceiling, innings eater-type that weak clubs like Pittsburgh roll out to get through the season. He never posted an ERA below 4.20, never had a K/9 better than 8.58, and only once had a walk rate lower than 8%. Not encouraging stuff for fantasy owners, and it’s easy to see why Kuhl went virtually undrafted heading into the season.

Kuhl works with a five-pitch repertoire consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, curveball, and changeup, though it’s mostly been about the sinker and slider for Kuhl this season. Despite having five pitches at his disposal, Kuhl has thrown his sinker and slider a combined 79.8% of the time. He threw his slider a whopping 45.8% of the time in this start, which makes back-to-back starts with slider usage above 45%. Kuhl’s never been much of a strikeout guy, but the slider is his best strikeout pitch, and he sports an impressive 26.2% swinging strike rate with it thus far.

What’s interesting about the slider isn’t just its usage, but its measurables too. Kuhl has gained two inches of drop and 100 RPM of spin with his slider this season compared to last, and the results have been spectacular. Batters are hitting a measly .033 against the pitch with a .133 SLG. This is especially impressive when one considers the move to Colorado, as the thin Denver air causes breaking balls to lose a little movement compared to a neutral environment. Just how different is this slider? Let’s have a look at a slider from this year compared to 2021 and see if we can spot differences.

2021:

2022:

Obviously, the most glaring difference is the velocity, and Kuhl is throwing his slider a bit slower this season. He’s averaging 86.3 MPH on the gun with his slider compared to around 88 MPH in previous years. It also has more horizontal action compared to previous years, and he’s been throwing it a bit higher this season. Here’s a heatmap comparison of Kuhl’s slider location from this season versus the rest of his career.

2022:

Career:

So, he’s definitely doing something different and it’s working to this point, though the overall strikeout rate of 19.3% is still nothing special in today’s game. His 13.5% swinging strike rate suggests more Ks could be in Kuhl’s future, but we’ll have to wait and see if he’s capable of more dominance.

The other pitch Kuhl relies so heavily on is his sinker, making him something of a throwback in 2022 pro baseball. Two-seam usage has been on the decline around the league for the past couple of years, but Kuhl will sink with that ship as he still throws his sinker over 40% of the time. The results have been less than ideal, as opponents are hitting .324 against the pitch along with a .441 SLG and .357 xwOBA. The good news is that he’s limited power against the pitch, but that might not last since batters have a 95 MPH average exit velocity off Kuhl’s sinker. Kuhl had Gopheritis when he pitched in PNC Park, so one can only imagine how Coors Field might treat him once the ball starts elevating.

Speaking of velocity, Kuhl’s average fastball velo is down this season at just 93.3 MPH. He threw over 94 MPH last season, and was throwing 95.5 in 2018 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. That makes me think the dip in slider velocity is not intentional, but perhaps all Kuhl is capable of throwing. He’s made excellent changes with his slider, but his fastball is below average.

Verdict:

Can Chad Kuhl be better than his Pittsburgh days? Sure, though that’s a low bar and wouldn’t necessarily make him fantasy relevant. His slider looks improved, but the rest of the profile remains unremarkable. He’s a spot starter that should be used primarily on the road in plus matchups. His next outing is Friday against the Diamondbacks in Arizona, which is the perfect place to deploy Chad Kuhl. Just don’t be afraid to cut him once someone more exciting emerges.

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks – 60% Rostered

2021 Stats: 158 IP, 4.44 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 13.3% K-BB%

04/30 @ STL: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

Kelly is off to a blazing start in 2022, putting up a 1.27 ERA and 16.7% K-BB% through his first five starts. He looks both like the ace of the Diamondbacks and a fantasy ace, which is especially surprising given his so-so track record over the past few seasons. Kelly had a little more love coming into the season than Chad Kuhl, but not by much and not too many people believed in him. Has the 33-year-old righty turned a late-career corner, or will this dice roll turn up snake eyes?

Kelly flamed out in his early 20s in Tampa Bay’s system, and eventually made a name for himself pitching in the KBO, causing the Diamondbacks rewarded him with a four-year, $14.5 million-dollar contract in 2019. Kelly uses a five-pitch mix on the mound, including a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup. He spreads his pitch usage out rather evenly, with his four-seam fastball the only pitch Kelly throws more than 30% of the time.

The four-seam fastball has help catalyze Kelly this season, chiefly because he’s throwing it harder. Kelly’s fastball has clocked in at 92.4 MPH, up over half a MPH compared to last season. This is great to see from Kelly since his velocity took a dip in 2021 following shoulder surgery, and one had to wonder whether he’d ever regain that velocity. Opponents have been stymied by the fastball as well, hitting just .227 with a .364 SLG off Kelly’s four-seamer this season.

It's encouraging to see Kelly get such good results off his fastball, but the sustainability must be called into question. Batters hit .311 off the fastball last year and have a .259 AVG against it all time. Even with improved velocity, Kelly is still below average, and has lost about 50 RPM of spin on his fastball this year. His .200 BABIP against his fastball is awfully suspect, and I’d expect regression going forward.

Outside of the fastball, Kelly’s most noteworthy offering is his cutter, a pitch he threw 29% of the time in this start. Batters are hitting just .217 with a .304 SLG off Kelly’s cutter this season, and he notched five of his 13 whiffs with the pitch in this start. Kelly’s cutter isn’t much a strikeout pitch, as Kelly’s not much of a strikeout pitcher himself, but it has thrived off inducing weak contact, including an astonishing 30.2% infield flyball rate off the pitch all time. Kelly is not throwing his cutter any harder this season, which is a bit surprising since his fastball velocity has jumped, but he is throwing the pitch more often. Kelly has used his cutter 20.3% of the time this season compared to 14.6% of the time in 2021. The only other time Kelly’s cutter usage was above 20% was 2020, where he pitched to a 2.59 ERA, though he made only five starts before suffering an injury.

Kelly’s cutter could be the key to his success, but even if it’s his best pitch, it does not blow anyone away. He only has a 15.5% swinging strike rate with it this season, and only a 9.6% swinging strike rate overall. It would be hard to envision Kelly maintaining his 22.8% strikeout rate with such poor whiff numbers. He’s been quite fortunate by traditional luck metrics as well, with a .275 BABIP against, 86.7% LOB rate, and zero home runs allowed through five starts. One has to expect all of those numbers to regress back towards league average, and once they do, Kelly will likely find himself around the high 3s or low 4s in ERA, which an iffy strikeout rate and poor run support along with it. He’s definitely in play while this hot and in the right matchup, but consider him a sell high candidate.

Verdict:

Yes, Kelly’s velocity is up. No, his fastball still isn’t good. A low 90s offering with moderate spin won’t revolutionize Kelly’s career, and he’ll likely come crashing back to earth at some point. If he can sustain his velocity gains he should be a decent, yet boring, back-end rotation piece. His next start is home against the Rockies on Friday, which is a strong spot to use him.

Corey Kluber, Tampa Bay Rays – 51% Rostered

2021 Stats: 80 IP, 3.83 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 14.4% K-BB%

04/29 vs. MIN: 6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Kluber’s overall numbers weren’t too bad last season with the Yankees, but he finished the season so poorly (5.40 ERA in the second half) that most wrote off the embattled 36-year-old hurler. It was an interesting move to sign with the Tampa Bay Rays, a team known for experimenting with once good pitchers to varying results. We weren’t quite sure how Kluber would be used either. Tampa Bay could’ve made him an opener, or have him follow an opener, or piggyback him with another pitcher for 3-4 innings a piece. Perhaps that was their plan, but injuries to key rotation candidates forced Kluber into taking on a bigger load than the Rays might’ve initially planned. Kluber has shown up big thus far, making us wonder whether the Klubot is fully operational, or due for a breakdown.

Kluber is getting up there in years, and his pitching style reflects that. Kluber used to butter his bread with a nasty fastball-slurve combo, but now he’s stopped throwing his four-seamer altogether. He relies more heavily on his cutter and slurve compared to his fastball. That’s probably a good thing for Kluber, since his average fastball velocity has dipped to 88.8 MPH this season, a career-low by a wide margin. He’s also lost about 200 RPM worth of spin on his fastball compared to its peak. Kluber’s fastball is an incredibly weak offering, and he’s lucky that batters have only hit .250 against the pitch thus far.

Kluber might be able to get away with a bad fastball because he’s begun phasing it out of his game in favor of his cutter and slurve. During his prime Kluber’s slurve had a strong case as one of the best breaking balls in all of baseball, and while it’s not there anymore, it’s still a strong offering. Not quite slider, not quite curveball, Kluber’s slurve is a bendy horizontal pitch that absolutely decimated right-handed hitters. It’s held up pretty well over the last two seasons, with batters hitting .186 with a 17% swinging strike rate against the pitch last year, though the numbers have dipped a bit this season with a .250 AVG and 14.7% swinging strike rate against this year. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.

Definitely not peak Kluber, but still a breaking ball most pitchers would love to have in their arsenal. With this pitch Kluber should be able to maintain a strikeout per inning, with perhaps the upside for a little bit more.

The cutter has essentially replaced the four-seamer as his primary fastball, as Kluber has used it 39% of the time on first pitch and 49% of the time when behind in the count. Batters haven’t minded seeing it, however, as opponents are hitting .304 with a .435 SLG (and .636 xSLG) off the cutter. Kluber has lost 3 MPH off his peak velocity and 150 RPM off his peak spin with the pitch, and it unfortunately doesn’t seem to be much more effective than his fastball. A lot of older pitchers have found success by forgoing their fastballs in favor of offspeed and secondary pitches, but for that to work the offspeed and secondary pitches must be good. Kluber’s cutter just doesn’t look like anything special.

Verdict:

Kluber’s slurve is still a plus breaking ball and will allow him to put up respectable strikeout totals. The rest of his repertoire leaves much to be desired. He’s stopped using his four-seamer in favor of his sinker and cutter, but a stark velocity drop has turned once solid offerings into easy pickings for opponents. Kluber is a matchup-dependent streamer at this point in his career. His next start should be a good opportunity as Kluber faces the Athletics in Oakland, a dream matchup for a pitcher.

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