Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts From Graham Ashcraft and Dean Kremer

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 17, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

The second half began with a bang on Friday night, and we saw some quality pitching from unexpected aces. First, we'll break down Graham Ashcraft falling just short in a pitcher's duel with Corbin Burnes. Then, we'll take a look at what's gotten into Dean Kremer, who struck out eight Marlins while improving to 10-4 on the year.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 07/17/2023.

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Graham Ashcraft, Cincinnati Reds – 15% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 81.2 IP, 6.28 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 7.2% K-BB%

07/14 @ MIL: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Ashcraft came out of the break strong, putting up six innings of one-run ball while falling short in a pitcher’s duel against Corbin Burnes. There is no shame in going toe-to-toe with one of the game’s best pitchers, and this performance earned Ashcraft his third consecutive quality start. In fact, Ashcraft has a sparkling 1.48 ERA over his last three starts. Could Ashcraft be regaining his early-season form, or is this another false alarm?

It’s been a wild season for Ashcraft, who was an early-season breakout candidate after posting a 2.10 ERA in April. The good times didn’t last forever though, as Ashcraft came back to earth and posted a 9.66 ERA between May and June. Adding injury to insult, Ashcraft missed about two weeks in June after taking a comebacker off the leg and landing on the injured list. Perhaps some time away was what Ashcraft needed, as he’s been rolling after a shaky first start back from the injured list.

Originally a sixth-round pick out of UAB, Ashcraft was viewed as a future potential starter in the Cincinnati organization, but there was never a large amount of hype surrounding him. Ashcraft was easily overshadowed by big-name prospects like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, but Ashcraft put up consistently strong performances in the minor leagues, having many wondering whether there could be something more from the Huntsville, Alabama native.

Ashcraft works with a three-pitch mix, consisting of a sinker, a cutter, and a slider. It’s sort of a non-traditional approach since Ashcraft is just one of five starting pitchers that hasn’t thrown a four-seam fastball all season (min. 80 IP). Ashcraft eschewed his four-seamer for a cutter, a move that has brought mixed results thus far.

Ashcraft’s cutter was on full display in this one, as he threw his cutter 50% of the time. This was the second straight start where Ashcraft used his cutter this frequently, and it appears that Ashcraft is using the cutter as his primary fastball. With an average velocity of 96.1 MPH, Ashcraft has the hardest cutter among starting pitchers in MLB (min. 80 IP), beating out his Friday night adversary, Corbin Burnes. Unlike Burnes, however, Ashcraft does not have elite spin with his cutter, and his cutter gets hit much harder. Opposing batters have hit .306 with a .454 SLG and .369 wOBA against Ashcraft’s cutter this season.

Okay, maybe those are just surface stats, but the peripherals tell the same story. Ashcraft has a .309 xBA, .448 xSLG, and .376 xwOBA against his cutter this season, giving expected stats that are nearly identical to his actual numbers. Furthermore, opponents have been smoking the cutter for an 89.2 MPH average exit velocity and a 25.6% line drive rate, reinforcing the fact that Ashcraft has earned his bad numbers on this pitch. We wouldn’t expect crazy strikeout numbers on this pitch as it’s Ashcraft’s primary fastball, however, the 7% swinging strike rate and 24.2% chase rate leave little room for excitement with Ashcraft.

So, maybe his cutter isn’t the driver behind recent success, but what about his slider? A bendy 88.1 MPH offering, Ashcraft’s slider has always been his most interesting pitch to this writer due to its exceptional spin and horizontal movement. In fact, its spin and movement are so drastic for a slider that baseball savant even categorizes the pitch as a curveball. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.

Notice the late movement back in on the hitter. That can make the pitch tricky to evaluate for hitters at times and helps the pitch maintain its effectiveness against opposite-handed batters.

The slider was his second-most used pitch in this start, and it was a big point of emphasis for him coming into the season. He even told reporters during spring training that he had a new slider grip. Because Ashcraft is such a hard thrower, one would expect a high-velocity, high-spin slider to pair nicely with his heat and rack up the strikeouts, but that hasn’t been the case. Ashcraft has a mediocre 14.9% swinging strike rate and 32.7% chase rate with his slider this season, and only notched three swinging strikes with the pitch in this start, with an overall underwhelming total of eight whiffs.

Ultimately, the issue for Ashcraft doesn’t appear to be a lack of talent or deficient stuff – his cutter and slider can pop at times — the issue is his relatively limited repertoire. Ashcraft has thrown either his cutter or slider 90% of the time this season, filling in the remaining 10% with a sinker that has been pulverized by opponents for a .526 AVG. Throwing his cutter 69% of the time when behind, and using his slider about 50% of the time when ahead, Ashcraft may be too predictable for major league hitters. Sure, he could overpower minor league bats, but major leaguers will take advantage of a two-pitch starter.

Ashcraft is reminiscent of early-career Nathan Eovaldi. For those ancient enough to remember, there was a time when Eovaldi was a young fireballer who looked great as a prospect but could never put things together on the mound. Injuries certainly played a role in Eovaldi’s early struggles, but his killer fastball was undermined by a thin arsenal. It wasn’t until Eovaldi developed the splitter that he found consistent success, and I think Ashcraft needs to find his version of the splitter. There is some talent here, but Ashcraft is pretty far away from realizing that potential.

Verdict:

It has been a roller coaster ride for Ashcraft and those who drafted him this season. He’s gone from breakout candidate to demotion candidate and back around again, posting a 1.48 ERA over his last three starts. With strong velocity and good measurables on his slider, Ashcraft’s stuff has some life to it. His biggest drawback is his limited repertoire, as Ashcraft is essentially a two-pitch pitcher between his cutter and his slider.

Long term, Ashcraft has better potential than his career stats to this point would indicate, however, he won’t unlock that level unless he develops a viable third pitch, something unlikely to happen midseason. For this season, Ashcraft offers far too much risk for little reward. His 15.9% K rate means he won’t give you many strikeouts, and his short leash (he only threw 74 pitches in this start) hinders his win and streaming potential. He’s far too volatile to trust except against the softest of matchups. This is a project pitcher. He could work out at some point in the future, or he could make a fine late-inning reliever someday, but he’s not mixed-league viable yet.

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles – 40% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 98 IP, 4.78 ERA, 4.94 FIP, 16% K-BB%

07/14 vs. MIA: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Dean was dealing Friday night, carving up the Miami Marlins for six innings of one-run ball, racking up eight strikeouts in the process. This is the second straight dominant start for Kremer, who finished his first half by striking out ten Yankees over seven innings for the victory on July 5. Those two starts were some of his best all season, which leaves us to wonder, has something gotten into Dean Kremer? Is this unassuming rotation filler capable of something more?

Originally a 14th-round pick by the Dodgers in 2016, Kremer was actually the first Israeli player ever selected in the MLB draft the year prior, being taken in the 38^th round by San Diego. He decided to wait another year and play at UNLV, and that decision may’ve helped catapult his career. Kremer wasn’t much of a prospect when he was first selected, but he flourished in the Dodger’s organization and scouts were beginning to view him as a future big-league starter. He came to Baltimore in the Manny Machado deal back in 2018, and has become the unexpected prize of the package for the Orioles.

Kremer works with a deep six-pitch repertoire, consisting of a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. In this way, he is the polar opposite of our previous subject, Graham Ashcraft. While Kremer has a lot of options, he relies primarily on his fastballs and his cutter, throwing either a fastball or cutter 72.3% of the time this season. Kremer has solid velocity on his four-seamer at 94.8 MPH, but he loses a bit on the sinker, throwing it 92.1 MPH on average. Still, Kremer’s velocity is up 1.3 MPH and he’s throwing his fastball more frequently this season compared to last year.

Kremer’s fastball may be harder, and he may be throwing it more often, but is it the cause of recent success? Its performance certainly wouldn’t suggest as much, with opponents putting up a .269 AVG, .476 SLG, and .335 wOBA off his four-seamer this season. Kremer has earned much of his misfortune with his fastball as well; batters have practically atomized Kremer’s fastball for a 93.4 MPH average exit velocity, .510 xSLG, and 33.7% line drive rate. With Kremer surrendering contact this hard, it’s a wonder that his four-seamer hasn’t performed worse to this point.

Okay, so maybe fastballs aren’t the name of the game for Kremer. This isn’t exactly a revelation, as Kremer was better known for his command and secondary offerings as a prospect; he was never supposed to throw this hard anyway. Kremer’s cutter was on point in Friday’s start, as he earned five of his 16 whiffs with the pitch, good for a 42% whiff rate.

This marks the second consecutive start where Kremer carved up his opponent with the cutter, as he had eight whiffs and a 67% whiff rate against the Yankees on July 5 prior to the break. The pitch itself appears fundamentally the same as there haven’t been any notable changes to velocity and movement, but Kremer was a lot more creative with his pitch mix overall in these last two starts, which could’ve led to the increased strikeout production. Here’s a look at his situational pitch selection this season prior to these starts.

And here is a look at his pitch selection over the last two starts.

What really stands out here is Kremer’s willingness to use his changeup more aggressively and against same-handed hitters. Kremer has a 58% whiff rate with his changeup over his last two starts. Even more encouraging, opponents have a .353 SLG and .317 wOBA off Kremer’s changeup this season, making it by far his most effective pitch. There's nothing wrong with throwing your most effective pitch, well, more effectively, as Kremer has done over these last two starts. These last two starts represent the first and second-highest single-game strikeout total for Kremer, and the changes to his pitch mix were a big reason why.

Even with these pitch mix changes, players should approach using Kremer with caution. He benefitted greatly from weak opponents in this start, as the Yankees have a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. The Marlins are technically better, with a slightly less awful 92 wRC+ as a club against righties. Not only were the opponents bad, but Kremer was using an all-new pitch mix in the game, meaning his opponents were likely caught way off-guard compared to what they expected.

Stepping out from these two starts, let’s have a look at Kremer as a whole. His .315 BABIP suggests he’s been a little unlucky this season, but he’s also surrendered a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity, 24.3% line drive rate, a 10.4% barrel rate, a .493 xSLG, and a 1.73 HR/9. That is not conducive to a low BABIP, nor is it conducive to starting pitcher success in general. It seems like there’s a little more talent than meets the eye with Kremer, and his pitch mix changes could be the springboard to the next level, but there’s plenty of reason to be skeptical of recent success and long-term sustainability.

Verdict:

An uptick in velocity paired with an increased emphasis on aggressive secondary pitch usage has Kremer swinging above his weight class in his last two starts, but the true test will come once his new style faces more exposure and tougher lineups. His two most recent starts were some of the best pitching of his career, but they also came against the punchless Marlins and spiraling Yankees.

His confidence to wield his changeup against both righties and lefties is great to see, and those invested or interested in Kremer should monitor his pitch mix closely start by start. Kremer surrenders a lot of hard contact, making him a risky bet against strong lineups, such as his next opponent, the Dodgers.

Kremer’s firm grip on a rotation spot makes him a decent innings-eater type in deeper leagues, and he deserves streamer consideration in 10 and 12-team leagues. He’s not a bad sneaky dart throw either, because Kremer is doing something tangibly different and finding success. There’s a good chance teams figure him out, but what if this is the new Kremer? At this point in the season, it’s worth a few bucks of FAB to find out.

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