AFC Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Fantasy Football Breakouts - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends Analysis For Week 4 (2024)

Kevin's fantasy football wide receiver sleepers, risers and fallers for Week 4 of 2024. He looks at last week's targets and receptions data to find buy-lows.

Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent target-earners are among the top fantasy point scorers: they can be relied on by not just their team’s offense to earn targets and produce on those targets.

We’ll take a weekly team-by-team look into these target earners and separate the wheat from the chaff. To properly lead into what we’ll be looking at this season, we’ll have to establish a baseline of the most important things we’re looking at with targets and other receiving metrics that paint the full picture for who we should be rostering, who we should be adding, and who we can drop.

Everything we’ll discuss in this season’s WR Targets, Air Yards, and Snaps trends analysis article will be some of the best statistics and metrics correlating with fantasy football production. Think of targets as a page in a coloring book, representing the outline yet to be colored. Coloring on that page adds context and flavor to that page. That’s what we’ll do with targets — adding more context than just some target totals and box score stats.

Note: As the season progresses, noteworthy changes in usage and production will be blended into the equation. Statistics from our player pages at RotoBaller were included during the compilation of data, while Pro Football Reference, PFF, Fantasy Points Data, NFELO, NFL NextGenStats, RotoViz, ESPN Stats and Info, SumerSports, and Nathan Jahnke's Immediate Fantasy Football Takeaways article for that particular week were also used as resources in the creation of this article.

Important Links

In order to streamline this article going forward for the rest of the season, we have separated the article into the NFC teams and AFC teams, as well as shortened the tables for maximum readability. But if you want the full tables for each team in the NFL for this week, we'll also provide that link to the full tables with statistics right here.

To find the NFC Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Fantasy Football Breakouts Article, click right here to go right over to the NFC portion.

AFC Top 15 Target Share % Increases From Week 2 To Week 3

Big shoutout to DeAndre Hopkins, who continues to gut our productive games and target shares while being hampered by an MCL sprain. Even with a 27.3% target share last week, Rashee Rice has been so good it literally doesn't matter; his target share dominance still cracks this list when he bumps it up to almost 37%.

AFC Top 15 Target Share % Decreases From Week 2 To Week 3

With how bad the Patriots' offense was against the Jets on Thursday night, it's a wonder there weren't more Patriots at the top of this list than just Hunter Henry.

Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Notes From Week 3:

The Ravens had the lowest PROE of the Week 3 slate at -22.7%, and it showed 15 pass attempts for Baltimore, and that’s all they needed when they could run the ball down the Cowboys’ throat.

Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman led the Ravens in targets with four each, and Bateman scored the lone receiving touchdown. It was ugly for the pass-catchers here, but that’s not the big story.

Mark Andrews earned one catchless target and ran just 35% of routes per dropback in the afternoon. In the post-game press conference, John Harbaugh said it was part of the game plan each week, and the ball “didn’t come his way.”

Weird. I’m just not sure we can start him going forward, which I know is incredibly tough because tight end is such a wasteland. At least there’s Isaiah Likely, though, right? One catch for one yard, just 65% of routes. Yikes.

Buffalo Bills

Bills Notes From Week 3:

With 31 pass attempts, the Bills were more pass-heavy than they’ve been all season, but the targets were heavily spread out. Khalil Shakir led the way, catching all six targets for 72 yards and a touchdown. All of that on a negative aDOT of -0.7 yards. I mean, sure? We’d like to see his aDOT as you know, a positive number.

It’s not something that can be sustainable in the long term. Right now, though, Shakir is realistically the only fantasy option outside of Dalton Kincaid, who should be rostered.

Speaking of Kincaid, he has his best game of the season with five targets and three catches for 41 yards and a touchdown on only 47% of routes. I mean, Dawson Knox outsnapped Kincaid and ran more routes per dropback. What are we doing, Joe Brady? Put your best players on the field.

James Cook is still the focal point of their run game, and they are putting Cook out on wide receiver routes, but they love to split up that role so Cook only gets to play 50% of snaps and routes, plus play Ty Johnson on pass downs while mixing in Ray Davis on early down stuff. Even though the routes/snaps are workhorse-adjacent, we’re still very much in on Cook.

Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Notes From Week 3:

You can definitely make the case that the final game of Week 3 was the game of the week.

ESPN quietly put up one of the wildest stats postgame: Commanders vs. Bengals was the first game since 1940 with no turnovers or punts

CIN TD
WSH TD
CIN Missed FG
WSH TD
CIN FG
WSH TD
CIN FG
WSH End of Half
WSH TD
CIN TD
WSH FG
CIN TD
WSH TD
CIN TD
WSH End of Game

— Steve Helwick (@s_helwick) September 24, 2024

With definitely no shortage of offense, targets were uncharacteristically spread throughout a bunch of targets on the Bengals.

Ja’Marr Chase grabbed two of the three touchdowns on the night, as he unsurprisingly led the Bengals in all receiving categories with a 6-118 line on seven targets, which tied for the team lead. Also with seven targets was Andrei Iosivas, who reeled in the other touchdown on a 5-52 line.

Tee Higgins also returned for his first game action and ran a robust 95% of routes while earning six targets, catching three of them for 39 yards. It’s extremely bullish of Higgins to already be at virtually every route in his first game rather than being ramped up over multiple weeks. Go ahead and plug in Higgins as a mid-range WR3 moving forward.

With Mike Gesicki producing a little bit but at only around 50% of the routes, rookie tight end Erick All Jr. is carving a little dent into Gesicki’s workload. Now, All shouldn’t be started, but if you have the room in deeper formats, All is a solid speculative add.

He’s basically in the Tanner Hudson role from last season, where All played mostly in-line but can jump into the slot at times, too, as a receiving option.

Zack Moss still has at least 70% in routes and snaps, but Chase Brown outgained Moss on five fewer carries, though Moss did earn six targets for 39 yards. Brown has only seen 12% of routes the last two weeks but is pilfering about 20-25% of snaps weekly and proving that he’s at least an efficient change of pace for Moss.

The Brown thesis is still very much alive, but it’s looking as though it could be a later-season thing from even this point versus the preseason, where Brown was assumed to be the 1A running back and going in the eighth round.

Cleveland Browns

Browns Notes From Week 3:

Besides Amari Cooper gaining some of the efficiency back that has been lost over the first two weeks of the season, there wasn’t much that stood out for the Browns in Week 3. Cooper led everything with 12 targets and a 7-86 line with two touchdowns. No doubt about it, Cooper crushed, with a 37.5% target share, 54% of the air yards, and 41% of the first-read targets.

Only Jerome Ford had over 30 yards receiving outside of Cooper, and Ford totaled 70 yards in both rushing and receiving on 13 opportunities.

Ford returned to a solid workhorse-like 79% of snaps and 64% of routes per dropback after toiling away with a concerning 44% of snaps last week. We feel better about Ford going forward that he got back to being the clear 1A in the backfield with D’Onta Foreman back to a role where he’s a pure spell rather than somebody who is getting meaningful touches in the offense.

Denver Broncos

Broncos Notes From Week 3:

In an offense that could make the case for being the most unathletic in the NFL, Bo Nix was able to commandeer it and get the Broncos to a solid wire-to-wire win over the previously undefeated Buccaneers. Courtland Sutton took over as the top target in terms of production, not just in name. Sutton’s 10 targets were a team-high, as were his seven receptions for 68 yards.

Lil'Jordan Humphrey also earned some volume with seven targets. No other Bronco wide receiver or tight end earned more than two receptions. Troy Franklin played his first game in a limited capacity of 30% routes per dropback, but his role could grow little by little as the season develops.

The running back situation is a bit of a mess, but it had a couple of bright spots, like Jaleel McLaughlin’s shifty move to get around the corner to score the lone rushing touchdown for Denver. Somehow, it was journeyman Tyler Badie who led the Broncos in rushing yards with 70, thanks to a 43-yard run in the fourth quarter.

Javonte Williams was still the lead back in terms of routes per dropback (45%) and snaps (52%), but he only had five carries and made up for it slightly as he caught all four passes for 29 yards. All in all, it’s extremely muddled, and nobody has separated themselves, which creates a logjam that nobody wants to sort through to find a worthy fantasy contributor.

Houston Texans

Texans Notes From Week 3:

The Houston Texans could only put up seven points in a lackluster effort against the Minnesota Vikings, who are turning into one of the most feared defenses in the league. I mean, if they can shut down the Texans, what does that say for the rest of the league?

A lot of Houston’s production was in garbage time, but Stefon Diggs’ target earning was on display during most of the game, earning a team-high 12 targets, 10 receptions, and 94 receiving yards.

Nico Collins earned five of his nine targets with Davis Mills under center, not C.J. Stroud, so his 4-86 line should be taken with a little grain of salt. Tank Dell also had his best outing, but he’s been somewhat lost in the shuffle (5-62), even if his routes per dropback have been very strong.

No Joe Mixon in this one, so Cam Akers started at running back, but with a game script that got out of hand rather quickly, Akers couldn’t do too much but pitch in with the only receiving touchdown for the Texans. He ceded a lot of the receiving work to Dare Ogunbowale, and even J.J. Taylor got involved as well, so if Mixon remains out, it’s a full-blown committee backfield here.

Indianapolis Colts

Colts Notes From Week 3:

For the Colts, it was sloppy against the Bears, but they somehow pulled out a win. It certainly wasn’t because of Anthony Richardson; the entire passing game struggled here.

Michael Pittman and Josh Downs tied for the team lead in targets with just five, and Pittman’s disappointing 2024 continues with just a 4-36 line. Downs returned to 73% of routes and absolutely nuked Adonai Mitchell’s role (9% of routes), so you can go ahead and drop him. Only Pittman and Downs earned more than two targets here, showing the sorry state of affairs.

With Josh Downs back, AD Mitchell has not seen the field. Downs, Pierce and Pittman have been every-down players.

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 22, 2024

The running game, of course, was paced by Jonathan Taylor, who looks fantastic and dynamic with two touchdowns and 110 yards on the ground while chipping in with a 25-yard reception on his only target. Even Trey Sermon scored as well, but he’s a deep contingent play.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars Notes From Week 3:

The Jaguars were absolutely throttled by the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Monday Night Football, but we got a couple of decent points of interest here, including Christian Kirk letting us all know that he is indeed off the milk carton and alive.

Kirk’s 8-79 receiving line on a team-leading 10 targets led the charge, and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. continued his target-earning ways with nine targets on a relatively inefficient five catches for 49 yards.

The only touchdown went to somebody named Brenton Strange, who I’m sure is a nice guy and a totally real NFL player who is filling in for the injured Evan Engram. He had a weak 2-12 line on five targets, but he salvaged his night with a touchdown.

69% of the snaps for Travis Etienne means he’s in no danger of losing his workhorse role with the Jaguars, but it was a salty game script. Still, 68 yards on the ground at just over 6.0 yards per carry was pretty solid.

Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Notes From Week 3:

Rashee Rice is turning into a superstar before our very eyes, and his low 4.1-yard aDOT be damned as Rice is just making it work. Rice led all Chiefs pass-catchers with 14 targets, 12 receptions, 110 receiving yards, and a touchdown. He’s a top-5 fantasy wide receiver, and that’s putting it conservatively.

Rashee Rice is now on pace for 164 targets this season. That would be the most for any #Chief in the Patrick Mahomes era. pic.twitter.com/EUuecUtv0Q

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 23, 2024

The rest of the cadre of pass-catchers found it much more difficult to produce against a sneaky good Falcons secondary, including noted podcaster Travis Kelce’s 4-30 line on five targets. Xavier Worthy has been getting schemed touches in order to ignite him with three carries and six targets for just 30 yards total.

JuJu Smith-Schuster caught his touchdown on a play that Rice has been feeding families with, and it so happens that Rice was off the field for that touchdown grab. You have to figure that should have been a second touchdown for Rice, but we’ll let it slide.

Carson Steele and Samaje Perine tag-teamed the backfield in the wake of Isiah Pacheco’s injury, to some success. Steele held the solid edge on Perine in both routes per dropback and snaps, but Perine still held some serve with 34% routes and 38% snaps. Both are at least startable to varying degrees. You can get by Steele as a low-end RB2, but Perine is probably more of a low-end PPR flex play.

Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Notes From Week 3:

The Raiders ran into the buzzsaw that was Andy Dalton and the Carolina Panthers. Week 3's game was a game where Davante Adams (eight targets, 4-40) and Brock Bowers (four targets, 3-41) both took a backseat to Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker. Both Meyers and Tucker led the Raiders in targets (9), and each of them caught touchdowns. Tucker’s came late with Aidan O’Connell as the quarterback.

You can’t trust either Zamir White or Alexander Mattison to take any meaningful stake in this backfield on a consistent basis. Mattison led the backfield in snaps (44%), but it didn’t amount to much in the way of carries, even if he scored a touchdown. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Notes From Week 3:

In what was a solidly boring game between two teams that wanted to take the air out of the ball, rookie Ladd McConkey started to get some fantasy traction in the target-earning department with a team-leading six targets.

Trying to overshadow McConkey was last season’s first-round pick, Quentin Johnston, who scored his third receiving touchdown in his last two games. No Charger had more than three receptions, so that should give you a clue as to how fruitful this passing game was in Week 3.

As inefficient as he was, J.K. Dobbins dominated snaps at 65% with 15 carries for 44 yards and catching all three targets for 10 yards. This is making Gus Edwards seem a bit irrelevant in the process with just three carries. Perhaps we can get some Kimani Vidal to change the pace here? We know what Edwards is at this point.

Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Notes From Week 3:

Minus Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins trotted out Skylar Thompson and then, later, Tim Boyle to virtually zero success. It was not great. I mean, they scored three points, so you do the math on that one.

The usual suspects Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle led the team in targets with five, but Hill’s 3-40 line and Waddle’s 4-26 line were far, far cries from what we’ve been used to.

De’Von Achane was stymied as well, with less than 3.0 YPC on the day. Miami has certainly seen better days, and against Mike Macdonald’s Seahawk defense, it was only going to get worse before it got better.

New England Patriots

Patriots Notes From Week 3:

The Patriots looked rather listless against a very good New York Jets defense. When you have one of the worst offensive lines in recorded history, plus Jacoby Brissett and a rag-tag group of pass-catchers, the bar is set extremely low.

DeMario Douglas led the way for the Patriots with nine targets and a 7-69 stat line, good for a 37.5% target share. The Patriots didn’t even run many plays, with just 48 at their disposal, so it was always going to be very limiting.

No other wide receiver earned more than two targets, but Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper combined for eight targets for just three receptions and 28 yards. Drake Maye did see his first regular season game action, but honestly, it was just a tease as he didn’t get to do much.

Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t get to do much either, with just six carries, but the backfield was split three ways with Antonio Gibson and JaMycal Hasty working in garbage time. It was a game to forget. I’m well on my way to forgetting this game happened.

New York Jets

Jets Notes From Week 3:

On the flip side of the New England Patriots, the Jets were very balanced, working on a bunch of players like Allen Lazard for some reason. Hey, Lazard is in the circle of trust, so as much as we hate it, it’s going to be a thing. He ran routes on 85% of Aaron Rodgers’ dropbacks.

Garrett Wilson saved his lackluster night with a touchdown among a disappointing nine-target, 5-33 showing. Tight end Tyler Conklin didn’t lead the team in targets, but he led in everything else with a 5-93 line on six targets.

Hey, we know Breece Hall is a superstar in the making, but Braelon Allen? He’s been pretty awesome, too. Hall got a rushing touchdown on 16 carries, but Hall earned 11 as well and was incredibly efficient as well with 55 rushing yards.

All in all, it caps the tippy-top upside for Hall, as Allen is getting as much run as he has in a short time, but we know how purely efficient Hall can be on a per-touch basis. We’ll roll with it for now without downgrading Hall.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Notes From Week 3:

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-0 and achieving that in the worst way imaginable: by getting the ball to literally everybody BUT the players we like. Five targets for Calvin Austin III, including a long touchdown. Two targets and 60% route participation for somebody named “Scotty Miller.” Five targets for Cordarrelle Patterson. I hate it here.

George Pickens earned a team-high seven targets and put up a solid 5-57 line on 89% of routes. Pat Freiermuth was also fine with five targets and 4-33 on 89% routes as well.

The Steelers’ backfield was pretty banged up in the win, as Najee Harris was seen wearing a sling earlier this week, and his Week 4 could be in jeopardy. Jaylen Warren was pulled after just 34% of snaps. He’s now considered “week-to-week” with a knee injury. Week 4 could actually be Justin Fields and Cordarrelle Patterson just running the ball, as Arthur Smith enjoys every second of it.

Tennessee Titans

Titans Notes From Week 3:

The Green Bay Packers defense did everything they could to harass Will Levis and man, it worked. Levis threw two interceptions, lost a fumble, and was sacked eight times.

When he wasn’t on the ground or running for his life, Levis got the ball to his main man, DeAndre Hopkins, who led the Titans pass-catchers in all categories with a solid six-catch, 73-yard effort, including a touchdown on only 50% of routes. Hopkins is still bothered by his MCL sprain, but’s always been a warrior who guts out his best effort in the face of injury.

Speaking of bothered, Calvin Ridley couldn’t be bothered to do much, posting just a single catch for nine yards on three targets.

Tony Pollard has a tight grip on the Titans’ backfield with 63% snaps, but the Titans could not run to save their lives as Pollard and Tyjae Spears combined for just 21 rushing yards on eight attempts. It's not super great for the overall state of the running back room, but Pollard is still a low-end RB2 in much better matchups.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis