RADIO
Eli Grabanski analyzes offensive play-calling tendencies of AFC North coaches and breaks down the fantasy football impact for running backs in 2020.
In fantasy football, many of us 'experts' in the field try to take as much data into account before concluding players. That includes means looking at things like game tape, the team's offensive line, or their primary play-callers historical tendencies to utilize a certain position. After much research, I've developed a broad knowledge of how each team's play-caller historically has utilized their running backs.
We've gone through the NFC North, NFC South, NFC East, NFC West, AFC South, AFC West, and AFC East so far. In the last entry of this series, we will look at the AFC North. This division has two offensive-minded head coaches (Kevin Stefanski and Zac Taylor), a pure defensive-minded head coach (Mike Tomlin), and a head coach who has an extensive background working in special teams (John Harbaugh).
For today, we will only be looking at the offensive-minded coaches and coordinators in the division. This means we will look at how Kevin Stefanski and Zac Taylor have utilized their running backs over the course of their career, the Browns and Bengals offensive coordinators: Alex Van Pelt (Browns) and Brian Callahan (Bengals), as well as the Steelers and Ravens offensive coordinators: Randy Fichtner (Steelers) and Greg Roman (Ravens). Let's dive in!
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Cleveland Browns
Primary play-caller: Kevin Stefanski
Kevin Stefanski had been a longtime assistant for the Minnesota Vikings, serving as a tight ends coach, running backs coach, and quarterbacks coach before being promoted to offensive coordinator towards the end of the 2018 season. After a long journey, Kevin Stefanski will finally have the opportunity to run his own team with the Cleveland Browns. Let's take a look at how Kevin Stefanski may use his running backs this season based on his previous 19 game experience as the Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator.
On the ground, Kevin Stefanski has been money in his 19 game career as an offensive coordinator giving his running back room 26 carries per game, and his lead back 15.58 of those carries. These numbers are both significantly above the league average play-caller that gives 22.46 carries to their running backs, and 13.91 carries to the lead back. For fantasy players rostering Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt, this has got to make you excited about their fantasy potential in this offense.
Through the air, Kevin Stefanski has given his running back room slightly fewer opportunities than the average coach (6.55 targets per game), with his running backs averaging 5.89 targets per game. If this stays consistent for this season, it would mean that Stefanski's running backs would see about 10 fewer targets over the course of the season then they would in the average play-callers offense. So is his use of running backs in the passing game good? No. But it also isn't bad. Considering the amount of touches Kevin Stefanski provides his running backs in the ground game, you should be optimistic about the Browns running backs this year.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Positive - Kevin Stefanski has been a huge net positive for providing opportunities to his running backs on the ground, giving his running backs 26 carries per game. Set for a 16 game pace, this would amount to a whopping 416 carries for his running backs over the course of a full season (league average among play-callers is around 360 carries). While he's slightly below average at providing opportunities for his running backs in the passing game, it would only amount to about 10 targets over the course of a full NFL season. You should feel very confident investing in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt with Stefanski in the fold.
Secondary play-caller: Alex Van Pelt
Alex Van Pelt has only called plays one season: all the way back in 2009 for the Buffalo Bills. While Kevin Stefanski is expected to be the primary play-caller, there have been whispers that Alex Van Pelt may end up being the play-caller for the 2020 season while Kevin Stefanski devotes his full attention to the team as a whole.
In his one season as an offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills back in 2009, Alex Van Pelt gave his running backs more opportunities than the average coach, giving his running back room 22.63 carries per game and his lead back 14.81 carries per game. This suggests that we should remain comfortable investing in the Browns backfield even if Kevin Stefanski decides not to call plays for the team.
Alex Van Pelt's usage of running backs through the air didn't stand out too much in his one season as the Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator back in 2009, with his running backs getting 99 targets over the course of the full season.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Neutral - In the ground game Alex Van Pelt is slightly above-average at utilizing his running backs in his one season calling plays. But through the air Alex Van Pelt has provided slightly fewer opportunities for his running backs than the average coach. Considering all this and the fact he's only coached one season, it's probably safest to classify Alex Van Pelt as a neutral influence on his running backs.
Cincinnati Bengals
Primary play-caller: Zac Taylor
Zac Taylor became the Bengals head coach last year after the team finally made the decision to fire Marvin Lewis, despite only having five games as an offensive coordinator under his belt prior. The Bengals ended up being disappointing last year and getting the number one pick, but in their catastrophic season how did they utilize the run game? Let's dive in and take a look!
Zac Taylor has called plays for 21 games in his career: five for the 2015 Miami Dolphins as an interim offensive coordinator and sixteen last year for the Bengals. So far in his career, he has given his running back room 21.05 carries per game which is slightly below average, and 16.81 carries per game to his lead back which is significantly above average in that realm.
Zac Taylor hasn't given his running backs a ton of opportunities in the passing game in his 21 games calling plays, with his running backs getting 5.48 targets a game. We'll have to see if this changes in the future, but the initial signs aren't great with his usage in this area.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Positive for RB1 in the ground game, negative for RB2 & RB3 in the ground game, slightly negative in the passing game - Zac Taylor has done a good job of getting his RB1 carries in his 21 games as a play-caller, but his RB room as a whole has received an underwhelming amount of opportunities in both the running game and passing game.
Secondary play-caller: Brian Callahan
Brian Callahan also joined the Cincinnati Bengals as a first-time offensive coordinator last year. While it's not expected that he will get play-calling duties this year let's take a look at how he influenced the Bengals offense last year just in case he ends up getting play-calling duties.
Brian Callahan has only has one season under his belt as an offensive coordinator where he didn't even call plays, but in that season his lead back, Joe Mixon, was heavily featured in the running game getting 17.38 carries per game despite the team only averaging 20.69 carries per game (which is below-average for a running back room).
Brian Callahan's stats here are going to be heavily tied to Zac Taylor's because the only difference is Taylor's 5 games as an offensive coordinator in Miami back in 2015. Much like Taylor, Callahan's running back usage through the air has been underwhelming with his running backs only getting 5.5 targets per game.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Inconclusive - Callahan has only one season under his belt where he wasn't even the primary play-caller, so it makes more sense to classify his results as inconclusive. If he had a more extensive track record, we'd classify him similarly to Zac Taylor: positive for his RB1 on the ground but negative for the overall running back work on the ground and through the air.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Primary play-caller: Randy Fichtner
Randy Fichtner has been the offensive coordinator the last two seasons for the Pittsburgh Steelers after spending many years as the team's quarterbacks coach. While he helped the Steelers have a strong offense in 2018, they disappointed in 2019 with the offense ranking 30th in yards per game and 27th in points per game. While his ineffective offense raised some eyebrows last year, he will get another opportunity to prove himself in the 2020-21 season. One of the big weapons that Fichtner will need to utilize is running back James Conner. Let's take a look at how he's utilized his running backs historically.
On the ground, Randy Fichtner has given his running back room fewer carries than his peers, with 20.13 carries per game going to his backs. Also according to these stats his lead back has only averaged 10.34 carries per game each season, but that might have more to do with James Conner's inability to stay healthy than Randy Fichtner's coaching philosophy. We'll keep an eye on this in the future, but overall Fichtner is more of a pass-happy coach than a run-heavy one.
Through the air, Randy Fichtner has been as close to average as you can get, with his running backs getting 6.59 targets per game when the league average play-caller gives their running backs 6.55 targets per game. He's been pretty consistent year to year as well with his running back room receiving 104 targets in 2018 and 107 targets in 2019. Expect about 105 targets over the full season once again this season from Randy Fichtner's running back room.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Negative in the ground game, Neutral in the passing game - While James Conner should bounce-back this year, the overall carries given to the Steelers running backs under Randy Fichtner has been below average. With regards to utilizing his running backs in the passing game, Randy Fichtner has been as average as they come.
Baltimore Ravens
Primary play-caller: Greg Roman
Greg Roman killed it last year, with the Ravens offense dominating with its elite production on the ground. But how much of this success on the ground comes from Greg Roman's running backs, and how much of this success comes from his other positions. Let's take a look at how offensive coordinator Greg Roman has historically utilized his running backs.
In the running game, Greg Roman does a great job of providing his running backs opportunities, with his running back room averaging 23.99 carries per game and his lead back getting 15.38 of those carries on average. This is something that should make fantasy players very excited to roster J.K Dobbins or Mark Ingram.
Greg Roman through the air is another story. He gives the fewest amount of opportunities through the air for his running backs of any offensive coordinator or head coach in the league, with a measly 3.39 targets per game. This is worrying for fantasy players playing in PPR leagues.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Positive in the ground game, negative in the passing game - On the ground, Greg Roman has historically utilized his running backs a ton, and it has resulted in some great rushing seasons. But on the flip side, Roman hardly utilizes his running backs in the passing game. Based on this, upgrade Roman's running backs in standard leagues and be more lukewarm on them in PPR formats.
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