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Mike Riggall compares ADP of running backs Raheem Mostert and Cam Akers to determine which player is a better draft value at RB for the 2020 fantasy football season.
It's early September and around this time we are normally evaluating preseason performances and adjusting our rankings accordingly. Leading up to drafts, it is very important to gather the most current ADP data in order to draft the best team possible. Part of your preparation should involve examining where particular guys are being taken to determine if you can wait for better value in a later round or if a particular player fits your style more than another player in the same round.
According to current ADP data ranging back to August 18th, Cam Akers and Raheem Mostert have been getting drafted as fringe RB2's around 50 picks into drafts. Mostert is a career journeyman who was finally given an opportunity to carry the ball last year and produced in a big way down the stretch. Akers was a stud running back at Florida State and has the pedigree to be a star in this league, standing 5'10", weighing in at 216 pounds and he runs a 4.47 40-yard dash.
Both of these running backs have very similar ADPs as you will see below, but does one offer more upside than the other, or is one a more reliable source for production than the other? Should you take Akers even though he's a rookie and we couldn't see him in preseason action? We will take a look at both players and determine which might be the best fit for your fantasy team in 2020.
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Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: RB 24 (Overall 52)
In 2019 if you had issues at the running back position and decided to take a shot on Raheem Mostert, he likely helped propel you into the fantasy football playoffs. In Week 13, the last week of the fantasy football regular season, Mostert had a season-high 19 carries, running for 146 yards, while adding a score on the ground on his way to a 23.4-point performance. If your playoffs started in Week 14, then Mostert came through with two scores and 24.9 points in a PPR. In Weeks 15 and 16 Mostert came through because he scored, registering just over 12-PPR points in each of those contests.
While we have fond memories of Raheem Mostert from the 2019 season, it's worth evaluating whether he can sustain that level of performance based on his usage. In nine of the games that Mostert played in 2019, he logged less than 10 carries, eclipsing 12 carries just three times the entire season, and he only played in more than 50% of the 49ers offensive snaps five times. Mostert also wasn't used much in the passing game, targeted just 22 times on the year.
The nature of the 49ers offense is to get their play-makers into open space and let them make plays. Predicting which 49ers running back, or even which 49ers wide receiver for that matter will have a big game on a week-to-week basis is very difficult to predict, making Mostert extremely boom-or-bust.
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
ADP: RB 23 (Overall 48)
Cam Akers is by far the most talented running back on the Rams' roster, and he is slated to take over Todd Gurley's role in the offense, if not by Week 1, it will happen quickly. Akers was a high school quarterback and switched positions once he got to Florida State because of his height, and his experience as a quarterback is helping him pick up the Rams playbook.
Todd Gurley scored at least 12 touchdowns a year since 2017, and in that same time-frame, he had at least 223 carries each year, registering just 223 carries in 2019 when the Rams were limiting him due to his arthritic knee. Even while struggling in 2019, Gurley still managed to finish as RB-14 on the season. If given similar volume, Akers should produce statistics similar to Gurley.
The Rams offensive line does give you some pause when thinking about drafting Rams players, but they are bringing back their entire starting unit from 2019 which was devastated by injuries. Brian Allen was the Rams starting center in 2019 until he suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 10, Joe Notebloom tore his ACL and MCL in week 6 and Austin Corbett was acquired in a mid-October trade which made it tough to acclimate to the offense.
While the offensive line's overall performance in 2019 was generally poor, they will have continuity in 2020 which includes Andrew Whitworth who has been an anchor at left tackle for the Rams since 2017. Even if the Rams' offensive line suffers injuries similar to 2019 and struggles as a unit, it shouldn't impair Akers too much as 2,186 of his 2,875 rushing yards during his career at Florida State came after contact and he was credited with 144 broken tackles.
The Verdict
The verdict on these two talented running backs is not so clear-cut. Honestly, this is going to come down to what type of risk you are willing to accept. Each week, Cam Akers should give you consistent volume with a large role in the Rams offense. Raheem Mostert is capable of blowing up any given week, but he will be boom-or-bust as the 49ers play several running backs.
If you are playing in a PPR league, Cam Akers will offer more in the pass-catching department than Raheem Mostert. Mostert seemingly came out of nowhere in 2019 and that gives me some pause, because Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon are still on that roster. Mostert is due just $2.575 million in base salary this year with another $2.75 million available in incentives, so they aren't locked into him financially as the starter. Don't forget, he was ready to holdout in order to get more money before he realized the market wasn't there for him this offseason.
Personally, I will opt to take the guy with the higher football pedigree who will see volume on a consistent basis, and for that reason, I will take Akers over Mostert.
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