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Mark Kieffer's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and Super Bowl Sunday Football - Bengals vs Rams showdown slate. His Super Bowl daily fantasy football advice.
It's the Super Bowl, RotoBallers! The most-watched and most-discussed and analyzed event of the year and we have some huge DFS contests on DraftKings. This is your last chance to play NFL DFS for six months, so get those lineups ready!
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on DraftKings for the Super Bowl showdown slate between the Bengals and Rams. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain Plays
My general strategy with the Captain slot is to think about what kind of a game it is most likely to be. If it's expected to be a low-scoring, grind-it-out game then rostering a running back in the slot makes a lot of sense. If it is expected to be a high-scoring affair, then usually rostering a quarterback or receiver in the slot makes sense. Of course, there are always exceptions but generally, that's what guides me.
Looking at the betting market, the game opened with a total of 49.5 points, it is now at 48.5 points. The Rams are implied for 26.5 while the Bengals are implied for 22 points. Long story short, the market believes this will be a high-scoring game.
Cooper Kupp ($17,400)
With the Rams implied for 26.5 points, it is expected they will score multiple touchdowns and Cooper Kupp figures to be in the mix having caught at least one touchdown in each playoff game. In fact, the last time he did not catch a touchdown was Week 16 against Minnesota. Additionally, he had double-digit targets against Tampa Bay (11) and San Francisco (14). If the passing game is big, Kupp is the most likely to be the beneficiary of it.
Matthew Stafford ($16,200)
If you want the salary savings and want to bet on other pieces of the Rams passing game having a big game, then Stafford is of course someone else to consider. Stacking the two I imagine is what many people are likely to do if they can fit in the salary. The issue for Stafford recently has been interceptions. He has thrown nine of his 18 interceptions since Week 15 against Seattle. In the playoffs, however, he has only thrown one interception. If he is going to be in the captain spot of the game-winning lineup, he will need to throw for over 300 yards, multiple touchdowns, and zero interceptions most likely.
Other Captains/MVPs: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Mixon
DFS Flex Plays
Tee Higgins ($7,600)
Tee Higgins is undervalued on this slate. He isn't as good as Ja'Marr Chase but stats-wise he has the same upside that Chase possesses. Higgins has had a week of 46.4 DraftKings points (Week 16 vs. Baltimore) and he has had a week of 31.8 DraftKings points (Week 13 vs. Los Angeles Chargers). The Rams have the No. 21 pass defense in the NFL in yards allowed per game and their focus will likely be on stopping Chase. That could open things up for Higgins to have a good game.
Cam Akers ($6,400)
In the last three games, the Rams have passed the ball just 52.22% of the time, and they were league average on the season at 59%. Cincinnati does have a good run defense, and Cam Akers has a shoulder injury so monitor the news. If looking to fade the Rams passing game, this could be a good leverage spot if playing in a tournament. The backfield could also get murky if Darrell Henderson is active along with Sony Michel and as we get closer to kickoff, I may completely pivot away from Akers. But for now, Akers is someone in my player pool to consider for tournaments.
Other Flex Options: Joe Mixon, Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Boyd, Van Jefferson
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DFS Value Plays
Matt Gay ($3,800)
If we are expecting a lot of points from the Rams, it is reasonable to expect Matt Gay to score a lot of points via field goals and extra points. You will not have a high ceiling, there will be a decent floor here and the salary could open things up for some expensive players.
Darrell Henderson Jr. ($1,600)
Akers is hurt, there is buzz that Henderson will come back. It wouldn't take a lot of scoring for Henderson to make value. If he gets 10 or more carries, then he is going to smash here.
Other Value Plays: Evan McPherson, C.J. Uzomah, Kendall Blanton,
Lineup Construction Strategies
My biggest advice with showdown is to pick a narrative you think is likely and run with it. The most likely outcome is both teams score a lot of points.
Considering it's the Superbowl, my advice would be in tournaments to play the game as if it's a slog. Leaving cash on the table is important as the majority that play will not leave cash on the table and will have duplicate lineups (especially in large-field GPPs.) I would want to spend a maximum of $49,000 in a tournament.
In cash games, I would play it as if points are being scored and roster the players most likely to do well in a high-scoring affair.
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