RADIO
Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! The Divisional Round of the playoffs gave us what was perhaps the greatest overall weekend of NFL football in history. This Sunday's Conference Championship games will have a tough time living up to what we witnessed a week ago, but possess more than their fair share of exciting players and matchups, so I'm pumped to share my DraftKings NFL DFS lineup picks for the Conference Championship games with all of you.
This slate is always unique because we only have two games to work with. From a DFS perspective, it's similar to a Showdown environment in that we're forced to think outside of the box in order to differentiate our lineups from the rest of the field. In this special Conference Championship edition of the article, we'll dive into some of the subtleties of short-slate strategy, as well as my favorite DraftKings plays in the form of "Core" and "Pivot" options at each position.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for the Conference Championship round of the playoffs. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!
DraftKings Quarterbacks - Conference Championship DFS Picks
CORE PLAY: Patrick Mahomes - CIN @ KC ($7,400)
Football fans received a nice little reminder last weekend that when it comes to the NFL's quarterback pecking order, it's Patrick Mahomes (and Josh Allen) and then everyone else. That's also the way it's shaping up on the DraftKings slate for this weekend, as I expect Mahomes to soak up as much as half of the QB ownership in most contests. It's tough to argue with, as the Chiefs' star brings both the highest DFS floor (25.1 DK points per game) and ceiling (DK scores of 41.1 & 43.0 in his last two) to the table this Sunday.
We're into Conference Championship territory, so there are no bad teams in action. That said, Mahomes' matchup against the Bengals is one to circle. Cincy finished the regular season ranked 24th in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA and allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the league (4,487) this year. This Bengals unit has allowed 6.79 yards per attempt to opposing QBs in the postseason - the highest average of any team left in the playoffs. While Mahomes can safely be called matchup-proof at this point of his career, this one against the Bengals is undoubtedly a positive one for the player that's averaging a massive 9.42 yards per attempt this postseason.
PIVOT PLAY: Joe Burrow - CIN @ KC ($6,600)
With only four QBs available on this two-game slate, I don't know that there's a true contrarian option outside of Jimmy Garoppolo, a play that is only for the bravest of souls. So when we focus on Joe Burrow and Matt Stafford, my lean is toward Burrow due to what I feel will be a much better overall game environment.
The Bengals have been content to run the ball this season because they have a talented RB in Joe Mixon and wanted to protect Joe Burrow as much as possible behind shoddy pass protection. Despite his talent, Burrow finished the regular season just 15th in the NFL in pass attempts, a number that was by design. However, when Cincinnati has been forced to turn their second-year QB loose, he has thrived. Burrow averaged a whopping 8.9 yards per attempt during the regular season - the highest average in the league among regular starters - and completed the second-most passes of 40-or-more yards (15) despite the limited volume.
We can expect this high-octane Chiefs offense to force the Bengals' hand in this one and Burrow will look across the line at a beatable KC secondary. The Chiefs were dismantled by Josh Allen last weekend to the tune of 329 passing yards and four TDs. KC ranked just 23rd in the league in Pass Defense DVOA during the regular season and relinquished the second most DK points in the NFL to the QB position.
DraftKings Running Backs - Conference Championship DFS Picks
CORE PLAY: Cam Akers - SF @ LAR ($5,000)
Despite missing the entire season with an Achilles injury, Cam Akers has returned to the Rams lineup in shockingly-quick fashion and emerged as L.A.'s lead back in the postseason. Akers' total opportunities in the postseason (46) have dwarfed that of backfield mate Sony Michel (16) and he's out-snapped Michel 85 to 39 over the Rams' two playoff games. I mention these stark differences only to point out that on this Sunday's DraftKings slate, Akers is priced just $400 above Michel.
Due to this puzzlingly low $5k price tag - and the aforementioned postseason volume - we're basically left with no choice but to consider Akers a core building block on this slate, even though he fumbled twice last week against Tampa Bay and his matchup against the San Francisco 49ers is an undeniably-tough one. The Niners finished the regular season ranked second in the NFL in Rush Defense DVOA and allowed a minuscule 3.57 yards per carry to opposing backs over the course of the year. However, this San Fran unit has displayed some weaknesses in the postseason, as they've been gashed in the passing game by the RB position. Over their two playoff games, the Niners have allowed an eye-popping 75% catch rate to opposing backs, as well as a massive 8.81 yards per target...both of which are the worst of any defense still left in the playoffs by a wide margin.
We can expect Rams' HC Sean McVay to exploit this matchup with Akers, a player that's thrived in the passing game throughout his young career and has hauled in four passes for 60 yards over his two recent postseason starts.
PIVOT PLAY: Clyde Edwards-Helaire - CIN @ KC ($5,300)
On a two-game slate such as this one, we can't be afraid to embrace some volatility. That's certainly what we're doing with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, a player that just returned from a shoulder injury last week and has never been the focal point of this Kansas City offense even when fully healthy. Not only is CEH competing for touches with the likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in this high-powered offense, but he'll also be fighting for backfield work with the recently-emerging Jerick McKinnon and a possibly-returning-from-injury Darrel Williams.
Obviously, there are several obstacles that the second-year back would need to overcome to post a tournament-winning type of score this week, but it's the type of risk I'm willing to take on a two-game slate such as this one. With his projected ownership currently at around 10%, Edwards-Helaire offers us the type of hard-to-come-by leverage we need in GPPs this weekend.
Realistically, we're betting on hyper-efficiency here, but he did look sharp in a limited role against Buffalo last week, tallying 60 rushing yards on just seven carries. While we're admittedly only hoping for an uptick in volume for CEH in this week's matchup against the Bengals, it's not unreasonable to believe he'll find some success if given the opportunity against a Cincy unit that allowed 4.46 yards per carry during the regular season.
Want more NFL DFS tools and content? Our NFL Premium package includes our DFS Cheat Sheets, Research Station, Lineup Optimizer, access to our Premium Slack Chatrooms where members can chat with our NFL analysts, and so much more. Check out this big win from RotoBaller's RealTalkRaph using our Premium tools - join in on the winning!
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Conference Championship DFS Picks
CORE PLAY: Cooper Kupp - SF @ LAR ($8,800)
The core-iest of core plays this - and every other week- Cooper Kupp has solidified himself as the closest thing we'll find to a "sure thing" in DFS. I won't dive into all the stats that have made this a historic season for Kupp, but his mind-blowing combination of volume and production makes him impossible to ignore on this slate.
The L.A. slot man is a volume-driven monster that led the NFL in targets (191), receptions (145), and receiving yards (1,947) this season. He's coming off a gorgeous 9/183/1 performance against the Tampa Bay Bucs in the Divisional round and draws a familiar foe this weekend in the divisional-rival Niners. San Francisco defeated the Rams in both of their regular-season meetings this year, but it wasn't Kupp's fault, as he combined for 240 yards and a TD on 18 catches over those two contests. The Niners simply have no one that's capable of slowing down Kupp and he should once again feast in this matchup.
CORE PLAY: Tee Higgins - CIN @ KC ($5,700)
While conventional wisdom might lead us to Ja'Marr Chase - a player that smashed Kansas City for an 11/266/3 stat line when these two teams met in Week 17 of the regular season - I'm actually very interested in Chase's running mate, Tee Higgins, who mustered just three catches for 62 yards in that Week 17 clash with Kansas City.
This is a spot where I think Chase's huge game in their recent meeting will actually hurt him, as you have to imagine the Chiefs will completely sell out to stop the rookie superstar. They successfully schemed out Buffalo's top receiver, Stefon Diggs, last weekend, holding him to just seven yards on three catches. Of course, this focus on Diggs left the door wide open for Buffalo's Gabriel Davis to annihilate the Chiefs secondary to the tune of 201 receiving yards and four TDs. We could see a similar - if not as extreme - scenario play out for Cincy's Higgins this week.
PIVOT PLAY: Byron Pringle - CIN @ KC ($4,300)
As we touched on when discussing Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the RB section, there are a lot of talented mouths to feed in this Kansas City offense. As a result, some inherent risk comes with targeting a non-primary Chief, though the ownership leverage this strategy can provide is valuable on a two-game slate such as this one.
Byron Pringle isn't option 1A - or even 1B - for Kansas City, but the third-year wideout has quietly carved out a very nice role in the Chiefs passing attack as of late. While he's no doubt been aided by the fact that Tyreek Hill has been banged up, Pringle's production over KC's last five is nonetheless impressive. He's been targeted seven or more times in four of the Chiefs' last five games and actually leads this star-studded team in TDs (five) over that timeframe. At just $4.3k, Pringle offers both salary and ownership relief while drawing a strong matchup against a Bengals defense that finished the regular season ranked 24th in the league in Pass Defense DVOA.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Conference Championship DFS Picks
CORE PLAY: Travis Kelce - CIN @ KC ($6,500)
It felt as though Buffalo did a fairly decent job on Travis Kelce last Sunday, but like Thanos, Kelce seems to be inevitable and emerged from the Divisional Round classic with 23.6 DK points. We can expect more of the same from him in this matchup against the Bengals, as Cincy relinquished the second-most yards in the NFL to the TE position during the regular season. Kelce has found paydirt in each of KC's last four games with a combination of talent and volume that makes him the best TE play on this - or any other - DFS slate.
PIVOT PLAY: George Kittle - SF @ LAR ($5,000)
The only TE on this slate with a DFS ceiling that can rival Travis Kelce's is San Fran star, George Kittle. Unfortunately, Kittle's floor is nowhere near as stable, as evidenced by a recent string of clunkers that's led him to average just 5.54 DK points over the Niners' last five games. He'll need to overcome both shaky QB play and a fairly tough matchup this week. The Rams did a fairly decent job against Kittle in their two regular-season meetings, holding him to a combined 10 catches for 60 yards and a score. However, L.A. has allowed 124 receiving yards to the TE position during the postseason. Arguments can be made that either Tyler Higbee or C.J. Uzomah are better price-considered options than Kittle here, but his slate-breaking potential is certainly tempting on this two-game slate.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
