RADIO
I'm riding shotgun in the struggle bus as the season grinds down. Week 14 featured some tight beats (although Baltimore should've had no chance to even come close in that game) and an overtime push. We trudge on. FYI, I only have two picks this week, mainly because with the way these teams are getting taken out by COVID outbreaks, I’m not even trying to handicap these matchups any further.
- 2021 Season: 12-20-1 (36%, -8.5u)
- Spread: 6-4, +1.3u
- Total/Team Total: 4-10-1, -6.3u
- Moneyline: 0-4, -3.3u
- Props: 2-2, -.2u
I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 15 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
Saturday 12/18, 8:20 PM EST | O/U: 45.5
The Mac Jones-led Patriots have found their way to the top of the AFC East and have many thinking they're a Super Bowl contender. They've ripped of seven straight wins and eight of their last nine after starting 1-3. They're now fresh off a bye week but this team is dealing with some injuries. Running back Damien Harris (hamstring) has been limited all week, and as of Friday afternoon was ruled out but as any other Bill Belichick offense, it's next man up. However, this unit has no issue with that, rushing for over 100 yards in each of the last nine games. Jones wasn't needed nearly at all in Week 13, throwing just three times but he's shown signs of being a pretty mature rookie thus far. Defensively, New England has built quite a unit, ranking second in DVOA and ranking third in yards allowed per game (310) and yards allowed per play (5.0). They will certainly have their hands full with Jonathan Taylor, but if there's a unit that can slow him up, its the Pats.
It wouldn't be right to call Indianapolis a one-man wrecking crew, but Jonathan Taylor is an animal and if you're reading this, you don't need stats because you already know. However. Carson Wentz has done a great job leading the offense, throwing 22 touchdowns and almost 3,000 yards, he has utilized star receiver Michael Pittman Jr. quite well. As a unit they average 5.8 yards per play, but over 150 ypg on the ground, again thanks to Taylor. Indy is no slouch on defense, holding the fifth ranked run defense by DVOA but they are slightly worse at home, allowing over 120 rushing ypg. They've had some success against the pass as well, allowing just 230 ypg, but what really sets them apart is the 2.2 takeaways per game, the highest mark in the NFL.
I got this earlier in the week and it's stayed pretty consistent around this number. I love home field advantage typically, but I also know Bill Belichick is going to be ready to roll out the big dogs to pull this one in. Give me the Pats straight up.
Pick: New England ML (+118, Fanduel) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - 1st Half Spread
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
Sunday, 12/19, 1 PM EST | O/U: 41
Despite pulling out a Week 12 win against the Texans, the Jets have gone back to futility of late. They have reached 300 yard sof offense since Week 11 and have only scored 20 or more points once since Week 9. Zach Wilson is back and I'm not sure if Jets fans are happy or sad about that, considering his -5 TD/INT and he's been incredibly below average since returning from injury in Week 12. There is a possibility they do get rookie tail back Michael Carter (hamstring) back this week, but no official decision has been made. Defensively, they allow over 30 ppg on the season and 25 ppg over the L3. They surrender 11 yard per pass completion, which means Tua could give them fits at home.
The Dolphins are on a nice little stretch, winning five straight with all of them by a touchdown or more. While the offense has been incredibly balanced with Tua leading the pack, it's the Dolphins defense that has garnered attention. They've registered 11 takeaways and allowed just 11 ppg in that streak. They have an extra juicy matchup this week with the turnover prone Jets. All it will take is some more consistency on offense, and the Dolphins are in a greta spot following their bye week.
I'm probably overthinking this, but with how the NFL has been this year, I will stick with my gut. Miami is going to get up front early and hold the line. I think there might be some garbage time snafu's here that put the full-game numbr in jeopardy so I'm rolling with Miami 1st half.
Pick: 1st Half Miami -5.5 (+105, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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