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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Sunday Night Football -Steelers vs Chargers showdown slate. His Week 11 SNF daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome to Week 11, RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues tonight with Sunday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate on November 21st. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Justin Herbert ($16,800 DK, $16,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 2,545 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, seven interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 26.9% (9th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 10.1% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
We get a good look at one of the bright young quarterbacks in the league as Herbert and the Chargers take on Pittsburgh. Now the Steelers defense is among the top half of the league in DVOA, but they're going to be given a test with Herbert tonight. He's expensive and will likely garner ownership, but he should be worth it. I think the game will be close enough that the Chargers will throw for most of the game, but feel free to pivot to Ekeler if you believe the Chargers will create a running game script.
Najee Harris ($17,700 DK, $15,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 176 carries, 646 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, 56 targets, 44 catches, 317 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 85.71% snap rate, 77.78% attempt rate, 76% red-zone attempt rate, 75% attempt rate within the 5yd line, 16.28% target rate, 22.73% red zone target rate.
- Offense Rush DVOA: -14.4% (23rd), per Football Outsiders
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 6.1% (32nd), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing DVOA vs RB (Receiving): -19.3% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
I know I'm looking at the two most expensive players at the captain spot tonight, but I think that they're both worth it. Harris has logged at least 15 fantasy points per game in every game since Week One, and now he gets the best rushing matchup in the league against the Chargers. It's safe to assume Harris will be relied on tonight, and the volume in this matchup is too good to pass up.
Other Captains/MVPs: Austin Ekeler, Pat Freiermuth
DFS Flex Plays
Ben Roethlisberger ($10,200 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 1,986 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, four interceptions
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 6.4% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -1.7% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
This is primarily a FanDuel play, where dual-QB is more of an optimal strategy. The Steelers' passing offense hasn't really gotten going this season, but in a game that the Steelers must win after tying the Lions last week, it's safe to expect them to throw the ball to try and stay in this one. I think Harris gets the job done on the ground, and that opens up the passing game for Roethlisberger.
Keenan Allen ($9,400 DK, $12,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 93 targets, 65 receptions, 698 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 89.54% snap rate, 27.11% target rate, 29.17% red-zone target rate, four end zone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: -5.4% (14th)
- Individual Matchup (vs. Arthur Maulet): 14% target rate per route covered, 54% catch rate, 0.25 fantasy points per route covered.
Another guy whose volume is just too good to pass up, Allen has seen double-digit targets in each game since the bye week. He has a great correlation with Justin Herbert, and if you're playing Herbert at captain on either site, I would prioritize fitting Allen in the lineup as well.
Other Flex Options: Diontae Johnson, Mike Williams, Chase Claypool
DFS Value Plays
Pat Freiermuth ($5,400 DK, $9,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 42 targets, 32 receptions, 276 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 57.78% snap rate, 12.21% target rate, 22.73% red-zone target rate, four endzone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 27.6% (30th), per Football Outsiders.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Kyzir White): 12% target rate per route covered, 85% catch rate, 0.21 fantasy points per route covered.
I can't believe Freiermuth is still this cheap. Sure, he isn't putting up consistently great numbers, but he's had at least a dozen points on DraftKings and at least nine points on FanDuel in three out of their last four weeks. He's seen at least seven targets in four straight games and has a great matchup against the Chargers. He's going to be a value priority in the majority of my lineups.
Jared Cook ($4,000 DK, $8,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 45 targets, 28 receptions, 318 yards, two touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 58.17% snap rate, 13.12% target rate, 12.5% red-zone target rate, four end zone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 2.1% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
- Individual Matchup Data (vs. Joe Schobert): 12% target rate per route covered, 70% catch rate, 0.2 fantasy points per route covered.
It's been an odd trend this season that tight ends have absolutely taken over prime-time games. I certainly prefer Freiermuth over Cook, but if you want to pay up for the big guys I wouldn't be opposed to playing both. There aren't a ton of options here in the value tier and since it's a prime-time game, I'll have Cook in at least a quarter of my lineups.
Other Value Plays: James Washington, Chris Boswell, Dustin Hopkins
Overall Slate Note
This is an interesting slate, as I think that the game could really go either way from a fantasy perspective. I could see this being a potential shootout or just a defensive battle where points are difficult to come by. Regardless, the optimal approach would be to jam in the guys with high volume (Harris, Ekeler, Allen, Freiermuth, Johnson), while mixing and matching in the quarterbacks and personal conviction plays like Jared Cook, Mike Williams, and Chase Claypool.
Enjoy your Sunday night, and good luck, everyone!
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