RADIO
It's Friday, which means we have a huge slate of NBA games! There are eleven games tipping off tonight, which gives us a plethora of spots to go to for DFS purposes. The prices on the stud players have really been boosted up for these big slates this week, which also works to make things more interesting and spread ownership out quite a bit.
On big slates like this, it's a pretty good rule to just not worry about ownership in most situations. With 22 teams available to pick from, there are dozens and dozens of viable options so it's pretty unlikely that ownership gets very concentrated. It's also very important to focus on upside. The cash line on huge slates like this will tend to be closer to 300 than 250, and often times it can exceed 300 even in cash games. That means you really need to get your picks right and focus on guys that can go for 7-8 salary multipliers in terms of value. We'll keep all that in mind here.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 11/12/21. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
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DraftKings Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Josh Richardson - SG/SF, BOS vs. MIL ($3,300)
Jaylen Brown will miss his third straight game for the Celtics tonight. In these last two games without Brown, Richardson has scored 22.5 and 28.25 DraftKings points. In the first game (11/6), he played 31 minutes, took 12 shots (three from behind the three-point line), scored 13 points, grabbed two rebounds and dished out three assists, and added a block. The second game (11/10) was a bit better, he shot it nine times (four three-point attempts), scored 15 points, and added three rebounds, three steals, a block, and one assist. In games without Brown, Richardson has a respectable 19% usage rate and is scoring 0.79 DraftKings points per game. That isn't an elite per-minute ratio, to be sure, but I think there's room for that to grow.
Richardson scores fantasy points in all different ways. Here are his per-36 stats for the year: 24.6 DraftKings points, 10.7 FGA, 4.7 3PA, 12.7 PTS, 3.9 REB, 1.9 AST, 0.85 BLK, 1.2 STL. If he can contribute three blocks+steals tonight that gives you six fantasy points right away, and he's a guy with 20 point, five rebound upside. He is a pretty safe play at $3,300, and certainly does have that huge salary-considered upside we are going to need tonight.
Zach LaVine - SG, CHI vs. GSW ($8,000)
One of the biggest pieces of news for this slate is that Nikola Vucevic will miss the game after entering the league's safety protocols. This year, Vucevic has played 34 minutes per minute with a 21% usage rate. He has averaged 15 field goal attempts per 36 and grabbed a dozen rebounds per 36. That is quite a bit of production being removed from the Bulls rotation. You can go ahead and play the big men that you think will take Vucevic's minutes, but I think a sharper way to attack this is to after LaVine here.
Chances are that most of Vucevic's shot attempts will fall to LaVine and DeMar DeRozan. I have both of those guys projected for 20+ field goal attempts tonight. LaVine has exceeded 20 field goal attempts twice this year and scored 40 and 47 DraftKings points in those games, and that's without even shooting a high percentage in those spots (he went 11-24 from the field on 11/3 and then 12-26 on 11/6). For the year, LaVine has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute. I think it's fair to project a boost on that tonight. If we give him a 10% boost on that and project him for 37 minutes, we get a projection of 47 DraftKings points, with plenty of upside for more. That is right at that 6x level for his $8,000 price tag - making him a very nice way to spend a good chunk of your salary.
The downside here is that the Warriors have been a strong defensive team this year, allowing just 210 DraftKings points per game. However, they have allowed the third-most three-point attempts per game at 40.4. That's good for a guy like LaVine that is not afraid to pull up from behind the arc.
Others to consider: Ricky Rubio ($5,700), Dennis Schroder ($6,200), Chris Paul ($8,900)
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DraftKings Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Norman Powell - SF, POR vs. HOU ($5,500)
We have a questionable tag on Powell right now, so keep an eye on that. If he does suit up, however, he's in a great spot here. The Rockets have allowed the most DraftKings points per minute to opposing small forwards, and Powell has been underpriced all year long. Powell has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute while taking 15.7 shots per 36 minutes played (6.7 of those being three-point attempts). He has added on 3.4 rebounds and two assists per 36 minutes as well, so he's not fully dependent on scoring to get there for fantasy purposes.
There is definitely some risk here with the injury lingering and the fact that he's still the Blazers' third-option in terms of shooting, but Powell has shown a strong floor this year scoring a minimum of 21 DraftKings points when getting over 25 minutes played (with a max of 41).
Keldon Johnson - PF, SAS vs. DAL ($5,800)
Johnson is popping off in the data models. In four games without Jakob Poeltl in the lineup, Johnson has scored 26, 35, 36, and 38 DraftKings points. Three of those four would be smash scores at his price tag tonight, and the floor is pretty good too. Looking at those games further, he has taken 18, 15, 16, and seven field-goal attempts while snatching six, nine, six, and twelve rebounds. He also has averaged 1.4 steals and 2.1 steals per game this year. His 22% usage rate in the games without Poeltl is second on the team behind Dejounte Murray, showing that he's willing to be the guy for his team when needed.
If other major injury news breaks closer to lock, Johnson is a guy I would willing to remove from my lineup just because it's a pretty thin path to that "have to have it" score, but he is checking the boxes right now.
Others to consider: Carmelo Anthony ($5,600), Darius Bazley ($4,900), Desmond Bane ($4,900), Kyle Anderson ($4,300)
DraftKings Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jarrett Allen - C, CLE vs. DET ($7,800)
Allen hasn't scored fewer than 30 DraftKings points in his last five games and has averaged 37 minutes played and 15 rebounds in that time. All of that has boosted his price up to a season-high for tonight's game, but the projection models are suggesting that it hasn't been boosted enough. While Collin Sexton being out boosts guys like Ricky Rubio and Cedi Osman much more than Allen, it does raise his shot attempts projections slightly. He took 10 shots in the first game without Sexton, and even tied his season-high in assists with four. Allen has shown off a huge ceiling this year, especially for a guy priced below $8,000 - going over 50 DraftKings points on two occasions and exceeding 40 in five different games.
It's a middling matchup against the Pistons, who have given up the 12th most DraftKings points per game to centers. "Traditional" centers playing more than 25 minutes against the Pistons have averaged 38 DraftKings points against the Pistons, so there's no reason to shy away here for matchup purposes.
Isaiah Stewart - C, DET vs. CLE ($4,300)
Kelly Olynyk will miss tonight's game, which opens 20+ big men minutes for the Pistons to fill. Stewart is the logical beneficiary of this, and we have an early projection of 28 minutes played for him tonight. He has averaged a strong 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this year, scoring 11.6 points and grabbing 11 rebounds per-36 minutes. He has gone over 22 minutes six times this year, scoring at least 18 DraftKings points each time while averaging 24.5 and maxing out at 36.25.
At $4,300 you really are hoping for a score near 30, which Stewart seems definitely capable of. The risk here is that our minutes projection is way wrong. Olynyk has not missed a game yet this year, so we don't have any insight into how this news changes their rotation. The Pistons will need a big man on the floor to watch Jarrett Allen tonight, and they really don't have a ton of depth at that position, inspiring some more confidence in the hefty minutes projection for Stewart.
Others to consider: Nikola Jokic ($11,700), Jusuf Nurkic ($7,000), Mason Plumlee ($4,700), Mitchell Robinson ($4,000), Steven Adams ($4,600)
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