RADIO
Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! It is great to be back talking NFL DFS with you! We knew going into Week 7 that the Main Slate presented us with some unique challenges due to matchups, salary, and availability. Those challenges were evident in last week's highlighted plays - and my personal DFS results - with the QB position being a perfect example, as one of our plays completely bombed (Patrick Mahomes), while another topped the slate (Matt Stafford).
Every DFS slate is different, and as we head into Week 8, this one sets up as a little more straightforward proposition. In Week 7 it felt as though we almost had to pay up in order to capture players with tournament-winning capabilities, but we had very few value options to work with. This week there are several options in the mid-priced range that I believe carry tons of upside. It leads me to more of a "balanced build" type of strategy.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 8. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 8 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: As I mentioned in the intro, from an overall perspective this slate sets up well for a balanced attack. However, that doesn't necessarily hold true at the QB position as a fairly "dead" $6k range forces us to either pay up or down. While some top-end options are certainly in play, I elected to discuss a couple of the cheaper options in this week's write-up.
Matt Ryan - CAR @ ATL ($5,900)
Maybe you can teach an old dog new tricks? Since stumbling out of the gate in new HC Arthur Smith’s offense, Matt Ryan has obviously grown comfortable with Smith’s scheme over the past month. The contrasts in Ryan’s first three games of the season in comparison to his last three are stark. The Atlanta legend accumulated just 567 total Air Yards over the first three weeks of the year; that number has exploded to 1,145 over the last three. His aDOT has similarly jumped. Ryan has gone from an aDOT of 4.81 across Atlanta’s first three to 9.05 over their last three. The veteran is averaging 300.8 passing yards and 2.4 TDs since Week 2, throwing for at least two TDs in all five of those games.
While Ryan and this Falcons offense head into a divisional matchup against the Carolina Panthers with their arrow pointing up, the opposite appears to be true for a Carolina squad that’s hit the skids as of late. After opening the season with three wins, the Panthers have now dropped four straight and have allowed an average of 29 points per game during their current losing streak.
Trevor Lawrence - JAX @ SEA ($5,500)
I’m always on the hunt for cheap upside and the way the QB pricing sets up this week almost forces us into a "Stars vs Scrubs" decision. I was heavily invested in Trevor Lawrence back in Week 5 and he performed well by posting 22.5 DK Points against Tennessee. That outing came sandwiched between scores of 17.8 & 19.9 DK points in Weeks 6 & 7. It appears as though Lawrence is finding his footing at the professional level, as his numbers over his last three starts have noticeably jumped in comparison to the first three outings of his career. The rookie, fresh off a bye week, will take that improving form into a matchup against a Seattle defense that was once-upon-a-time a matchup to shy away from but has morphed into one to target. The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL this season (2,059) and are relinquishing a healthy 7.65 yards per attempt to opposing QBs.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 8 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: Derrick Henry looms atop the salary scale at the RB position, though his Week 8 matchup is noticeably less desirable than last week's. Alvin Kamara remains basically the entire offense for New Orleans and is coming off his best game of the season. Outside of those two spend-up options, we have a true buffet of viable plays at the position that come with relatively reasonable price tags.
Darrell Henderson Jr. - LAR @ HOU ($6,500)
Has a girl ever dumped you and then tried to get you back a couple of weeks later? It’s a weird feeling. You’re still mad at her for hurting you, but she also looks pretty damn good in that skirt. Well, Darrell Henderson Jr. broke your heart last week, but here he is in Week 8, crawling back to you and looking fine as hell.
I’ll let you make your own relationship decisions, though when it comes to Henderson my advice is to swallow your pride and take him back. The Rams’ workhorse back busted as the most popular play of Week 7 against a surprisingly-feisty Lions squad, but he draws yet another smash matchup this week against a Houston Texans team that I’m pretty sure is dead inside. The Texans rank last in the NFL in both rushing yards (1,020) and rushing TDs (12) allowed and I expect Henderson to bounce back in a big way from his flukey, disappointing outing of last week.
Khalil Herbert - SF @ CHI ($5,400)
Khalil Herbert was an afterthought to begin the season, with David Montgomery firmly in place as Chicago’s lead back and veteran Damien Williams signed to serve as his backup. However, we all know how crazy the NFL can be, and here we are in Week 8 with the rookie Herbert heading into this matchup with San Fran off three consecutive games of 75-plus yards rushing, which includes him dropping 100-yards last week on a stout Tampa Bay run defense in a negative game script. With Williams back in the lineup last week after a bout with COVID, Herbert still garnered a 73% snap share, and now has opportunity counts of 23/22/18 in his three weeks of action. We won’t dive down the Justin Fields rabbit hole, but suffice it to say, Chicago will once again be forced to lean on the run. Despite a mediocre matchup against San Fran, Herbert’s $5.4k still qualifies as a steal when considering his usage and the way this Bears offense is forced to operate.
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 8 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: The WR position is similar to RB in that there are a couple of tempting spend-up options, but we also have a very strong mid-range that's chock-full of viable plays. We know that WR is the most volatile position in NFL DFS, so I'm always interested in pivoting away from spots where ownership is heavily congregating.
Mike Evans - TB @ NO ($7,000)
Listen, I probably should be telling you to play Chris Godwin here, as there is a lot of evidence that Saints' corner Marshon Lattimore has Mike Evans' number.
BUT...you will likely get that fantasy advice in any article that you read this week. It is safe, sound, reasonable DFS advice.
BUT...we are trying to win GPPs, not simply cash in them. Pivoting to Evans - who has a higher price tag than Godwin and the inarguably tougher matchup - might feel a little bit like lineup suicide, but it is a calculated risk that I'm willing to take in large-field tournaments, even though the matchup history with Lattimore makes the outlook grim this week.
BUT...at the end of the day, we're talking about rostering a play in Evans that's been superior to Godwin in every advanced metric this season - Targets Per Game: Evans 8.4 vs Godwin 8.1; Air Yards Per Game: 115.9 vs 73.7; aDOT: 14.19 vs 9.17 - at a fraction of the ownership! We're also talking about an offense that is facing a pass-funnel Saints defense and a receiving corps that is still without Antonio Brown. Sure, this play comes with some obvious risks, but I believe the potential leverage we can gain in GPPs outweighs them.
Tee Higgins - CIN @ NYJ ($5,200)
Hi. My name is Joe and I’m a Tee Higgins addict…
I have had a large amount of Higgins exposure every time he’s suited up this year and that will once again be this case in Week 8. The Clemson product has logged solid, if unspectacular, outings this season and is averaging a respectable 12.7 DK Points per game across his five healthy games. However, the underlying metrics point towards bigger things and it feels as though a ceiling game is coming. Higgins was targeted a massive 15 times in Week 7 and it reflects his rock-solid volume throughout the year that's resulted in an average of 8.8 targets per game. While his teammate Ja'Marr Chase has quickly established himself as the alpha of this Cincy receiving corps, Higgins' is quietly not far behind, as he's garnering just under a 30% share of the Air Yards in this offense with an aDOT of over 10 yards. He also offers us a $2.3k discount in comparison to Chase.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 8 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: With no Travis Kelce on the Main Slate, the TE position is fairly wide open and even thinner than normal. Atlanta rookie Kyle Pitts sits atop the salary scale at $6.3k on the heels of monster back-to-back outings.
Mike Gesicki - MIA @ BUF ($5,000)
A tight end in name only, Mike Gesicki is running routes on a massive 97.8% of his offensive snaps. Gesicki's WR-like role has led to usage that makes his highest-of-the-season $5k price tag still too cheap. His production has been elite, as he sits near the top of the position in targets per game (7.3), aDOT (10.5), and Total Air Yards (505). The matchup against Buffalo is a tough one on paper with the Bills allowing just an average of 9.1 DK Points per game to the position. However, Miami already throws at the highest situational-neutral rate in the NFL and will likely be trailing throughout in this one, so rostering Gesicki equates to a bet that his talent and volume will overcome the less-than-stellar matchup against a rugged Bills defense.
Dallas Goedert - PHI @ DET ($4,700)
Life without Zach Ertz started for Dallas Goedert last week and it resulted in the Philly TE being on the field for 90% of the Eagles' offensive snaps. Goedert's Week 7 target count of five was still puzzlingly low, but he did turn in an efficient stat line of 70 yards on three catches. This week he draws a matchup against a hard-nosed, but talent-deficient Detroit squad that ranks 27th in the NFL in overall Pass Defense DVOA and is allowing a massive 9.67 yards per target to the TE position specifically. At $4.7k, Goedert could realistically post a slate-high score at the TE position in a game that carries a sneaky O/U of 48.
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