RADIO
Week 7 was a bit of a rough one, I'm not gonna lie to you. I got only six of the top-10 defenses right with Carolina completely falling on their faces against a Giants offense led by Dante Pettis, and both the Browns and Broncos defenses getting nothing going in a real stinker of a Thursday Night game. Each DST ended with four points, according to Fantasy Pros scoring, so they didn't ruin your week, but it wasn't the high-performing effort that I expected.
However, this goes back to what we were talking about a couple of weeks ago. Defense is just like every position on your fantasy football team, sometimes it will bust in a great matchup. If you had told anybody that Darrell Henderson Jr. was going to get 21 touches against the 32nd-ranked Lions run defense, you would have expected a monster day. Instead, he got 8 points in half-PPR leagues and finished as the 29th-ranked running back. The same goes for the Giants defense and Titans defense finishing in the top-5 with the Titans holding the Chiefs to just seven points. Those were not performances anybody would have expected and maybe not ones that would ever happen again if you matched those teams up ten times.
Sometimes things don't fall out as we planned, but that doesn't always mean our thought process was wrong. It just means the results didn't hit on that one particular occasion. If that starts happening more often than not, then we need to look at the process overall or with a given team. As it stands, I still trust the metrics that we've been focusing on but am losing faith in the early season performance of certain teams - like the Panthers and Broncos in particular.
As a reminder, make sure to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week goes on. When we get injury news or troubling weather information, I will update the rankings accordingly.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 8 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, IDP leagues, recommended FAAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era. This year, it hasn't gotten much better, with teams averaging 360.2 yards per game and 23.8 points per game.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 8 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (Pass Rush Win Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
Divided by Games Played
BOD is designed to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8
Buffalo comes out of their bye and finds themselves still at the top of the BOD Rankings. It's pretty simple really, even after the loss to the Titans, the Bills are 1st in turnover rate, 1st in yards allowed per play, 2nd in drives that end in an offensive score, 4th in pressure rate, and 3rd in QB hurry rate. They have simply been elite and now will have two weeks to prepare for a 1-6 Dolphins team that will be coming into Buffalo to take on an angry Bills team. Remember that the Bills lost on the final play before their bye last year (the Kyler Murray Hail Mary) and then didn't lose again until the AFC Championship Game. I'm not saying the same thing will happen this year, but I'm saying that they are going to come out against the Dolphins prepared to send a message.
The Rams let us down a bit in a smash spot last week against the Lions, finishing 8th by FantasyPros scoring. Now, that's certainly not bad, but it's a bit of a downgrade from the Rams defense that we saw last year, and I think by now we've come to understand that this is the reality for 2021. The Rams are a good, potentially very good, defense but maybe not an elite one. They are only 21st in pressure rate, 16th in drives that end in a score, and 7th in turnover rate. While that may impact their overall upside as a DST, it certainly does nothing for my confidence in them this week against Davis Mills and the Texans. The Texans are 18th in sacks allowed, 30th in turnovers, and 31st in percentage of offensive drives that end in a score. Tyrod Taylor will reportedly return to practice this week, which will give him a chance to play on Sunday, and while that will improve this Texans' offense, and likely make sacks harder to come by than against the statuesque Mills, it won't move me off the Rams' defense.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8
The Bengals are in first place in the AFC! It's a meaningless narrative after seven weeks that we're sure to hear all week long; however, the Bengals are playing good football, and their defense has made clear strides this season. They are getting after the quarterback far more regularly, and while they are still poor at creating turnovers (25th in the league) they make up for it by being stingy in terms of yardage (4th in the league) and points allowed per drive (3rd in the league). Add that to the fact that we know the Jets offense is bad and will likely be without Zach Wilson, and we should be relatively excited for the Bengals' defense this week. Mike White didn't look awful at first, and Wilson himself certainly hasn't been great, but this is not a passer that is going to invigorate the Jets' offense. Ditto if the Jets wind up starting Joe Flacco, who hasn't shown anything in the last few years to make us think he can be a useful starting quarterback. I expect Cincinnati's pass-rush to cause miscues and lead to a pretty tasty DST score.
The Bucs just utterly destroyed the Bears. It actually become hard to watch when the Bucs were going for it on 4th down in the 4th quarter despite being up by 35 points. I don't think the game itself will be particularly close against the Saints, but I do think the Bucs defense will have more of a challenge for fantasy purposes. The Saints are 3rd in the NFL in sacks allowed and 8th in turnover rate. So, while they don't score a lot of points, they also don't make many mistakes. They've turned Jameis Winston into a game-manager, which has drastically cut down on his mistakes, and I would imagine they attempt to play a ball-control style of offense on Sunday to keep Tom Brady and Tampa Bay's offense off the field. I think the Bucs will score points, which will force the Saints to eventually open it up and lead to a couple of miscues, but I don't see that happening much until the second half, which should mean Tampa's defense will allow few points but not have the sacks or turnovers to really climb the weekly rankings.
Hopefully, by now you've forgotten about the Chargers' showing against the Ravens. Coming off of a huge victory, the Chargers went to the East for a 1 PM kickoff and got worked over by the Ravens. Before that game, we were talking about the Chargers being the best team in the AFC, and then after that game, people had already lost faith. Not me. Brandon Staley has already proven to be one the best up-and-coming coaches in the NFL after being an elite defensive coordinator, and he's had two weeks to prepare for a very mediocre Patriots offense. Yes, I know they scored 54 points against the Jets, and, no, that doesn't make me think they are a good offense. In fact, the Patriots give up the 3rd-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. The Chargers defense is 10th in turnover rate, 4th in quarterback hurry rate, and 5th in pressure rate. They are going to be in Mac Jones' face, unlike the Jets on Sunday, and Staley will likely disguise looks to confuse the rookie signal-caller. I expect the Chargers to come out and remind people that they are a real contender.
This play makes me a bit nervous, I'm not gonna lie. For the season, the 49ers haven't been all that great, ranking 20th in my BOD rankings. They also didn't look particularly inspiring in the rain-soaked Sunday Night loss to the Colts. However, I wouldn't go so far as to call them a bad defense. They're 5th in yards allowed per play, and pretty much middle of the pack in our other important categories: 15th in percentage of drives that end in a score, 18th in quarterback hurry rate, and 21st in pressure rate. Where they really struggle is in getting turnovers. So we have a middle-of-the-road defense against an offense that gives up the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, which makes for a back-of-the-top-10 finish for me. I think the 49ers' have improved their pressure off the edge over the last two weeks, which is important when going up against the Bears' offensive line, who is dead last in sacks allowed, will be where the 49ers' defense gets to make its fantasy points.
This Steelers ranking could change as the week goes on depending on how healthy the Browns offense is. However, I'm assuming Nick Chubb is back but that Baker Mayfield continues to sit out or plays and continues to play inefficiently given his shoulder injury. The return of Jarvis Landry helps the Browns offense a bit, but their offensive line is still really banged up and ranks 25th in sacks allowed, which is a problem going against a Steelers defense that is 3rd in pressure rate and 2nd in quarterback hurry rate. I expect this to be a physical, ugly game where the Steelers defense should rack up a few points in sacks with maybe a turnover or two thrown into the mix.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8
The Packers are one of the worst matchups for opposing fantasy defenses, but that usually assumes that Davante Adams is lining up out wide. With the Green Bay star testing positive for COVID and highly unlikely to play on Thursday, the Arizona Cardinals defense now suddenly becomes one we feel more confident about playing. Aaron Rodgers is still going to find a way to score points, and Aaron Jones is certainly capable of carrying an offense, so this certainly isn't a matchup we are trying to attack; however, it is no longer one we are fully running from. The Packers are 21st in sacks allowed on the season and with no Adams to bail Rodgers out, it's possible that the pressure of J.J. Watt and Chandler Jones gets to the Green Bay quarterback more than it might have in a typical showdown between these two teams.
I was ready to give up on the Panthers after their showing against the Giants on Sunday, but then here they are, taking on a pretty average Atlanta offense, and I find myself putting Carolina back in the top-10. Atlanta is 24th in yards per play and 20th in turnover rate while being only 4th in sacks allowed. The Panthers' strength is their pass rush, which is 6th in pressure rate and sacks on the season, so it will be an interesting battle between those two units. However, the Panthers are also likely to activate Stephon Gilmore off the PUP list this week after having him practice with the team for two full weeks. That should be a huge boost to this secondary and a big help against Calvin Ridley, which could force Matt Ryan into some bad throws or buy extra time for the pass rush. This Panthers unit might not be as elite as we thought they were early in the season, but I still believe they can be a solid unit and find themselves in a good matchup this week.
Despite dropping to 17th in my season-long rankings, the Broncos slid into the top-10 for this week thanks to three basic factors. One is that Von Miller's ankle injury doesn't appear to be serious, and the early reports are that he will play this week. Two, is that the Washington Football Team gives up the 9th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses, and third is that the Broncos pulled off an under-the-radar but important trade on Monday when they dealt a draft pick to the Rams for inside linebacker Kenny Young, who had started all seven games for Los Angeles and was second on the team in tackles, including having a sack and seven tackles against the Lions. Considering the Broncos have six linebackers on the IR, this is a pretty major hole that needed to be filled. I'm not sure what impact Young can make in week one, but I expect him to be on the field often, which will help make this Broncos defense a bit more dynamic. They're not going to be the top-end unit some of us were hoping they would be, but they might be able to continue to be reliable for fantasy purposes.
The Browns defense has become a bit more reliable of late, rising up to 11th in the BOD rankings, thanks to being 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate, 2nd in yards allowed per play, and tied for 3rd in the NFL in sacks. However, their upside is capped by the fact that they're 31st in the league in turnover rate, and the Steelers offense runs a lot of short dropbacks and quick passes to counteract the fact that Ben Roethlisberger can barely move anymore. However, the Steelers' offense also isn't particularly effective and lost part of their dynamic wide receiver trio with JuJu Smith-Schuster out for the year. I don't think Ben is the type of quarterback anymore who can really take advantage of this Browns secondary, and the Steelers are actually 13th on the season in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, so that's pretty much in line with where the Browns rank this week.
The Eagles' defense has been a bit of a disappointment this year across the board. They rank 21st in turnover rate, 19th in drives that end in a score, and 24th in pressure rate. They simply don't give up a ton of yards, ranking 7th in the NFL in yards allowed per play. While many may view the Eagles as a great streamer pick, I'm a little less bullish. The Lions' offense is bad but not awful. They are 12th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, ranking 22nd in sacks allowed and 23rd in turnovers. I think the Eagles will be a fine play because the Lions lack upside, but I don't view this as a particularly strong spot.
If we're talking about disappointing defenses, then we have to mention Washington. They have just really fallen on their face this year in almost every area. However, their pass rush remains strong. They are 11th in quarterback hurry rate, 9th in pressure rate, and tied for 12th in sacks. That's good news because the Broncos are 28th in sacks allowed and give up the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. I expect Washington to be able to cause havoc for Teddy Bridgewater, who has made more mistakes in recent weeks than he did to begin the season. However, Bridgewater may also get Jerry Jeudy back this week, which will be a boost for the Broncos offense and a knock against this Washington defense that would really rank much lower if so many Tier Four defenses didn't have incredibly tough matchups.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8
We have three teams in my top-10 for the season all in this tier and it's as simple as "bad matchup." That red color on their opponent means that their opponent is one of the league-leaders in allowing the FEWEST fantasy points per game to opposing DSTs. Now, it's entirely possible that one of these defenses finds themself in the top-10 at the end of the week, and I wouldn't drop any of them; however, I also wouldn't feel great playing any of them in these matchups.
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8
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