MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday 6/22 - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

June 22, 2021

Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 6/22/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!

Welcome to another day of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!

A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.

Another week, another chance to break away from the .500 streak we’ve been on. As we near the All Star Break, teams start to form their identities, which makes finding value a little tougher because Vegas is pretty sharp with their lines. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 for some fun banter and also extra plays on days I don’t write. Below are my MLB betting plays for Tuesday, June 22nd. Let's make some money and have fun, but remember, please gamble responsibly!

2021 MLB Betting Picks

• Moneyline Record: 5-6 (-1.57u)
• O/U Record: 10-10-2 (-0.97u)
• Runline Record: 6-5 (+2.07u)
• First 5 Record: 9-6-3 (+1.53u)
• Prop Record: 3-6-1 (-2.86u)
• 2021 Total Record: 33-33-6 (-1.8u)

St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers

O/U: 8.5 | STL -115 DET +100

St. Louis: Johan Oviedo; Detroit: Tarik Skubal

We still don’t know much of Oviedo; his last outing was his best, by far, going seven scoreless innings against the Marlins. However, in each of the six starts prior, he didn’t last longer than five innings, and gave up at least three runs in four of those. His 29/18 K/BB is brutal, so we can overlook the no-walk performance last time out. Offensively, the Cards do a solid job of getting on base against LHP, holding a 10 BB% and a .307 wOBA since May 1, but only carry a 97 wRC+ and when on the road versus southpaws that number drops to 75.

Skubal has been the definition of hit-or-miss, boom-or-bust, whatever you prefer. Since the start of May, the lefty has made eight starts, gone 44 IP with a 3.48 ERA and 63/17 K/BB. However, the eight home runs is a dark spot in an otherwise solid profile. The Tigers’ lineup has been easy to pick on at times this season. Against RHP at home since May 1, they hold just a .305 wOBA with a 90 wRC+. The power hasn’t developed either, with just a .140 ISO. It’s hard to be excited about what this team has to offer.

If you throw out Sunday’s 9-1 win for St. Louis, they’ve scored two runs total in the L5 games, and while Detroit hasn’t been quite that bad, they’re averaging 4.4 runs total per game. In an effort to keep both bullpens far away from this one, I’m looking at a low-scoring first five innings.

Pick: First 5 innings Under 4.5 (+100, BetMGM) 1 Unit 

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

O/U: 7.5 | ATL -110 NYM -102

Atlanta: Charlie Morton; New York: Marcus Stroman

Morton has seen some improvement in his recent performance, including his last outing where he went 7.2 innings, allowing just three hits with seven strikeouts. The three outings prior weren’t quite as pretty, but on a positive note he’s only allowed one homer in his last five outings, so he’s limiting blow ups. As a lineup, it’s still strange to see how much Atlanta has struggled at the plate. When facing a RHP on the road, the Braves hold just a .662 OPS, a .141 ISO, .290 wOBA, and an 82 wRC+ Since May 1.

Stroman has been one of the better pitchers in all of baseball this season. While he’s getting hit pretty hard (avg Exit Velo of 90.4 mph), he’s keeping the ball in the yard (nine HR) and demonstrating excellent control (just 19 BB). He boasts a 2.00 ERA at home, combined with a .249 opponent wOBA. Offensively, it’s hard to trust the Mets. They carry some huge names  that just haven’t put it together yet (Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor). As a team, the .307 wOBA and 104 wRC+ against RHP at home put them just above average. However, their 45 GB% puts them right into Morton’s wheelhouse, so if they hope to make his day difficult, they’ll need to be disciplined in the box.

I’m rolling with Stroman and hoping the Mets lineup can put two-and-two together. Overall, Stro has been pitching lights out this year and with his splits favoring the home start, I’m surprised to see the Mets as slight underdogs here. Give me the value all day.

Pick: Mets ML (-102, Fanduel) 1 Unit

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