MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday 5/4 - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

May 4, 2021

Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 5/4/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!

Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!

A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.

Monday brought on another 1-1 day with the Phillies cashing the First 5 Inning ML, while Toronto and Oakland used the hook to plunder our Under 8.5 pick. This has been par for the course so far this season, as I’m still looking to keep volume low until teams start to build into shape. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Tuesday, May 4. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!

2021 MLB Betting Picks

• Moneyline Record: 2-4 (-2.25u)
• O/U Record: 8-4-2 (+3.28u)
• Runline Record: 3-4 (-0.6u)
• First 5 Record: 4-4-3 (-.59u)
• Prop Record: 2-4-1 (-1.05u)
• 2021 Total Record: 19-20-6 (-2.49u)

Houston Astros at New York Yankees

O/U: 9 | NYY -120 HOU +105

Houston: Zack Greinke; New York: Domingo German

The Astros are relying on Greinke to carry this rotation this season and so far it’s mixed results. He gave up four in four innings April 28, but allowed just two in the previous two starts (15 IP) with 12 strikeouts and no walks. Offensively, Houston’s lineup is still loaded but they do struggle with RHP on the road, offering a .227/.286/.369 slash line along with a .141 ISO and just an 85 wRC+. Lefties like Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez aren’t the issue, it’s the rest of the lineup that needs to pull its weight.

German, like Greinke, has been somewhat of a mixed bag. His last out was his best, going seven scoreless on just three hits with a 6/1 K/BB. It’s possible he’s still brushing off rust after being suspended for the entirety of the 2020 season. The lineup backing him up hasn’t exactly been the Bronx Bombers many expected and oddly enough their struggles at home are mighty. Against RHP in Yankee Stadium, this unit is hurt just .199 with an OPS of .619 and a 83 wRC+. Of course, they did just outscore the Tigers 18-4 in a home series last weekend, but we won’t get into comparing Houston and Detroit.

We’ve got two pitchers who are either entering their form or have shown signs that their game is on an uptick. Sure, we’re playing with first based on the offensive potential, but we’re finally at the point where we have some verifiable data based on how these teams played through the first month.

Pick: Under 9 (-115, BetMGM) 1 Unit 

Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins

O/U: 8.5 | MIN -165 TEX +150

Texas: Kyle Gibson: Minnesota: J.A. Happ

Gibson goes to war against his former team Tuesday. The righty has pitched masterfully over the last month. Throw out his opening day start and he’s allowed just three earned runs over 33 IP with a 26/8 K/BB and has yet to surrender a home run. Statcast says it’s not a complete anomaly, but he’s on a career pace right now, so it’s hard not to expect some regressions soon. Unfortunately, his offense isn’t too stout. Averaging four runs per game, this Rangers lineup is littered with lefties, making Tuesday’s tilt a negative matchup facing J.A. Happ. Texas is hitting just .235 with a .656 OPS against LHP and they love to strikeout, sitting down empty-handed at almost a 26% clip.

I was impressed to learn J.A. Happ was still playing baseball, and all things considered, the 38-year-old is throwing the ball well, having allowed just five earned runs over 23 innings. Offensively, the Twins have been clicking, scoring at least nine runs in three of their last five games. They’ve had success against RHP, hosting a .738 OPS and a .191 ISO, but those numbers dive off a bit when they’re at home.

I have a tough time believing that Kyle Gibson can get through another start without serving up a crowd pleaser. Sure, he’s been in great form but this offense has pure weapons. Throw in Happ’s looming regression with two bullpens that don’t scare me and I love the over in this game.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-107, Draftkings) 1 Unit

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