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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/10/21. Mike Schwarzenbach's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
It's the second weekend of the 2021 season and we can see some trends starting to form across the baseball landscape. It's still too early to draw significant conclusions, but most teams have a week of games under their belt which helps us when setting DFS lineups. We know the D-Backs and Rangers are lineups to attack with pitchers, the Braves are still swinging and missing at a high rate, and the Reds offense looks legit.
The second Saturday of the season brings us a weird slate, that, if I'm being honest, isn't my favorite to attack this season. The pitching options are relatively thin and there should be runs galore with five teams implied for over five runs as of Saturday morning. That's without the Cincinnati/Arizona and Washington/Los Angeles betting lines released so expect to see two more lineups carry high implied run totals into Saturday's main slate. There's also the Angels/Blue Jays game which carries an 11 1/2 over/under. Several picks below will be from that game but monitor the weather in Dunedin, Fla. as there's rain in the forecast as of this morning. It's too early to completely fade the highest O/U on the slate, but be ready to pivot if it looks like a washout before lock.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/10/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter.
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Zach Eflin - P, PHI @ ATL ($8,200)
This feels like a trap game for Eflin after he absolutely dominated these very Braves last Sunday. I'm typically wary of pitchers facing the same lineup in back-to-back starts, but given the dearth of pitchers on this slate, I'm rolling the dice on Eflin because I strongly believe in his talent. The 27-year-old revamped his pitch-mix last season scrapping his four-seamer and morphing into a sinker/curveball pitcher which led to a whopping 10.2 percent spike in strikeout rate. This helps justify Eflin's dominance over the Braves last Sunday when he struck out eight over seven innings with the only damage being a solo homer because Eflin hung one curveball late in his start (I believe the ball landed in a nearby suburb sometime Monday morning).
Atlanta has the third-highest strikeout rate in the Majors so far this season and Eflin's mastery over them last time out is a big reason why. He's not the safest option, but I'll take the salary savings over his opponent Ian Anderson.
Jeff Hoffman - P, CIN at ARI ($6,900)
April is typically too early to draw significant conclusions about a baseball season. That's not the way we roll in DFS, however, so let's roll out the red carpet for the Arizona Diamondbacks as the Official Matchup to Target with Low-Priced Pitchers! We're still looking for a sponsor for the award and the name could use some workshopping, but let's roll with Hoffman tonight versus a D-Backs lineup without Ketel Marte to give it some sliver of credibility.
Hoffman was a fantasy-nobody after spending five years with Colorado but was good in his first start against the Cardinals allowing one run in five innings with six strikeouts. Hoffman's career numbers aren't good, but, we need to take Coors Field into consideration. His career K-rate is 4.1 percent higher away from Coors and his wOBA allowed is 41 points lower. He's not what I'd call a good pitcher, but he's not bad either when we adjust his numbers for what was his home park for five seasons. Paying down at pitcher is the way to go on this slate and I think Hoffman will be good for 15-18 points while allowing us to fit some high-priced bats into lineups.
Other Options: Julio Urias @ WAS ($9,500), Ian Anderson vs. PHI ($8,700)
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Christian Vazquez - C, BOS at BAL ($5,100)
Catcher is a tricky position on the weekends as teams will typically play their starter and their backup in some order with Saturday night games followed by day games on Sunday. This makes setting DFS lineups tricky, but also raises the value of someone like Vazquez who has as much upside as any catcher in baseball when he's behind the dish. Vazquez is crushing the ball to start 2021 with two homers, seven runs scored and a .564 wOBA that ranks in the 97th percentile. Camden Yards is a notoriously hitter-friendly park and Boston should be able to put up runs vs the lefty Bruce Zimmerman.
Other Options: Tucker Barnhart @ARI ($3,100)
Jared Walsh - 1B, LAA @ TOR ($4,400)
Before the season, our DFS editor Dan Paylo wrote a strategy piece on attacking pitchers with reverse splits. Typical DFS players avoid hitters facing pitchers of the same handedness. Blue Jays starter Steven Matz isn't completely a reverse-split guy as his career numbers vs RHB and LHB look remarkably similar, but we can work with that, especially with Walsh who has a .304 career batting average vs lefties compared to .256 vs righties. That's a very small sample, yes, but Walsh is hot with nine hits in his last five games. Throw in the fact Walsh should see a couple of at-bats vs the Jays' bullpen and there's leverage to be gained by plugging the L/L matchup into your lineup.
Other Options: Vlad Guerrero Jr. vs LAA ($4,800), Bobby Dalbec @ BAL ($3,200)
Jonathan India - 2B, CIN at ARI ($3,500)
India took his first 0-fer of the season on Friday but let's go right back to the well with the Cincinnati rookie. India opened the season on a six-game hit-streak which led to 10 RBI batting sixth or seventh in the Reds lineup. While DFS players typically like hitters to bat higher, I'm afraid India will become too obvious of a play if he's hitting, say, second. The Reds are a good lineup with a nice matchup versus rookie Riley Smith and a D-Backs bullpen that has already thrown the third-most innings this season after last night's 10 inning affair. Cincy should be able to get India four if not five plate appearances and I like his chances to crush this price if that happens.
Anthony Rendon - 3B, LAA at TOR ($4,900)
Not too much to overthink here. Rendon is in a smash-spot as the cleanup hitter with the platoon advantage facing the lefty Steven Matz. There are a lot of good third basemen on the slate but Rendon is priced under 5k and playing in a good hitters park. If the weather scares some people off the Angels then Rendon could be a tournament winner with a multi-homer game as part of an LA stack. His high upside combined with a relatively safe floor (for baseball) makes him an easy play.
Other Options: Mike Moustakas @ ARI ($4,500)
Eugenio Suarez - SS, CIN @ARI ($4,800)
Suarez has been bad to start the season sporting just a .136 average through six games. This could be a get-right game for fantasy baseball's newest shortstop in a good matchup vs Smith and a bad D-Backs bullpen. Suarez hasn't been hitting, but he is taking his walks (20.7 percent walk rate so far) so that leads me to believe he's fine, just a little unlucky early in the season. Fire up the Cincinnati cleanup hitter as part of a Reds stack or as a one-off with all the other offense available.
Other Options: Ha-Seong Kim @ TEX ($3,000)
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Jurickson Profar - OF, SD @ TEX ($3,200)
Fernando Tatis Jr.'s injury has opened up playing time for Profar who is a nice high-floor hitter to plug into lineups. Profar takes his walks and rarely strikes out so he should be able to make something happen against Jordan Lyles. Profar is making good contact to start the season with a .303 xBA. San Diego will be a popular stack in this one but players like Profar, Kim, and Pham are solid options under $4k to differentiate from the Hosmer/Machado/Myers crowd.
Tyler Naquin - OF, CIN @ ARI ($3,400)
Naquin is a man possessed early on this season racking up four homers in his last three games and even stole a base in last night's contest. He leads all players with a 99.8 MPH average exit velocity and is barrelling up the ball at a rate that, while unsustainable, shows how locked-in Naquin is. Despite his hot hitting, his price remains fair in the mid-3k range on Draftkings. We've covered the Reds extensively as a solid stack option tonight and Naquin should be part of it, especially if he's back in the leadoff spot.
J.D. Martinez - "OF" BOS @ BAL ($5,600)
Oh wowee! We made it to the last outfielder spot with plenty of salary remaining. There are always strong options in the OF like Mike Trout ($5,900) if we're going full Angels stack. For my (fake) money, give me Just Dingers playing in Baltimore. Martinez is a known lefty masher so I like his odds of doing damage against Zimmerman. In his career, Martinez averages one homer every 13.9 ABs versus lefties compared to one in every 19.1 ABs versus righties. Martinez is the route to go if itching to spend cash in the outfield.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Los Angeles Angels @ "Toronto" Blue Jays (Steven Matz, LHP)
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Riley Smith, RHP)
- Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles (LHP Bruce Zimmerman)
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