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Analysis of five fantasy baseball relief pitchers and closers drafted in the later rounds. Are these RPs undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, everyone wants to draft some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. But it's essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy, and also avoid players with some question marks coming into the season.
Today we are looking at some later-round relief pitchers for you to consider drafting, and also those to be cautious of. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
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Giovanny Gallegos, St. Louis Cardinals
Heading into 2020, Giovanny Gallegos was coming off a breakout 2019 campaign in which he struck out 93 batters in 74 innings pitched and posted a 2.31 ERA and 0.81 WHIP supported by a 27.6% K/BB rate. Unfortunately, due to a delayed arrival in summer camp and a mid-September groin injury, Gallegos pitched just 15 innings in 2020. In those 15 IP, Gallegos posted four saves (in four opportunities) with a 3.60 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and 21 strikeouts.
Gallegos' 2020 numbers were consistent with his 2019 breakout, and his limited performance was supported by a 2.06 FIP. Not much has changed for Gallegos heading into 2021. The Cardinals will likely continue to use Gallegos as a member of a committee and not as their sole closer. Accordingly, Gallegos remains an excellent option in leagues that reward holds, but his ceiling in saves-only leagues will be limited unless he, somehow, runs away with the closer role in a stacked Cardinals bullpen.
Due to his position as a member of a closer-committee, Gallegos' value as a fantasy reliever takes a hit. That said, managers willing to roster Gallegos will be rewarded with superb ratios and strikeouts, along with some saves, still making Gallegos a great late-round selection around pick 289.
Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays
Across a whopping 30 big league innings, Romano has certainly been Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde as the first 15 in 2019 were awful, and 2020 was fantastic. During last season's breakout, Romano boasted a 2.40 xFIP and flashed a rare groundball (58.1 GB%), soft-contact (25.8 Hard%), high-whiff ability (36.8 K%).
In his forgetful 2019 campaign, Romano threw his fastball and slider at a 60%/40% split. In 2020 that split flipped to 40/60, and evidently it was beneficial - along with a 2 MPH uptick in velocity. The stuff was electric, and gave opposing batter fits. His O-Contact% dropped 23 points from 2019, with his overall Contact% dropping 15. He gave up the eighth-lowest contact among all relievers. Pretty impressive for a guy that also owns a 58.1 GB%. After not allowing an earned run in his first nine innings of 2020, his stellar campaign was cut even shorter due to a middle finger injury that cost him all of September.
Prior to the injury he had converted two of three save opportunities. Regardless of who sees the majority of save ops for the Blue Jays in 2021 (Romano, Rafael Dolis, Free Agent), I believe Romano will get enough to warrant his current 219 NFBC ADP due to the upside and strikeout totals.
Mark Melancon, San Diego Padres
Despite only playing in 23 games in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Mark Melancon continued to prove his value on the field. Melancon had eleven saves in 2020, following a 2019 season in which he went 5-2 with 12 saves while playing for the Giants and Braves.
In 2019 he almost tied his career high in strikeouts with 68 punchouts. A repeat of this performance will almost certainly contribute to success. For the first time since 2016, Melancon's WAR was 1.0 in 2020, while he dominated the postseason with five strikeouts and two saves in 6.1 innings.
Melancon has signed on with the Padres, but the crowded bullpen along with Emilio Pagan and Drew Pomeranz might make it difficult for him to stand out. Despite this, Melancon's value should not be taken for granted. 2021 looks to be the year that Melancon can reaffirm himself as a high-profile reliever in a market that is deep with talent. Keep an eye on the veteran at ADP 267 for some late-inning help with the potential for save opportunities.
Daniel Bard, Colorado Rockies
What a remarkable comeback story it was in 2020 for Colorado Rockies relief pitcher Daniel Bard. After his last major league appearance in 2013 with the Red Sox, Bard returned to the big show with Colorado and pitched quite admirably.
His fastball averaged 97 mph with an incredible spin rate. He walked batters at a 9% clip and struck out a quarter of the batters that he faced. Combined with a ground-ball rate of almost 50%, he was the real deal.
Bard is currently 35 years old, so it is hard to project lightning in a bottle for a second straight season (and a full one), but aside from that, it isn't a stretch to think that Bard could succeed as the Rockies closer to start 2021. Bard will be fantasy relevant this spring.
Diego Castillo, Tampa Bay Rays
Diego Castillo finished the shortened-2020 campaign with three wins, four saves, 1.66 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 23 strikeouts across 21.2 IP and finished as the RP19. Practically doing away with his four-seam fastball, the 26-year-old threw his slider at a surprising 64.7% clip, and despite the slight dip in K-rate from previous seasons, the results were very promising. He posted career bests in O-Swing%, Contact%, and SwStr% while boasting a 2.13 GB/FB and 24.1 Hard%.
Castillo was one of only two relievers with a GB% above 60, Hard% below 25, and a K/9 above nine. (Fun Fact: Victor Gonzalez was the other). More importantly, Castillo proved he has ice in his veins when it mattered most. He only allowed two earned runs over 11 postseason innings and earned three saves, while Nick Anderson allowed runs in seven consecutive appearances.
There is no such thing as predicting how Kevin Cash uses his bullpen, so it may prove unwise to project any less than 50% of the opportunities to Diego Castillo in 2021. But Nick Anderson is now injured, and Castillo's current ADP sits at a laughable 295, which represents a huge potential value. To ensure you don't miss out, the Baller move would be to target Castillo around the 200 mark instead of a question-mark reliever.
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