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Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to George Kittle, Tim Patrick, Jeff Smith, and more.
There were 17 quarterbacks that scored at least 20-fantasy points in Week 4 with Dak Prescott leading the charge. Teddy Bridgewater, Justin Herbert and Sam Darnold were some unfamiliar faces that cracked the top-10 this week, but other than those guys none of the big producers really surprised us. As a whole, tight ends weren't very productive in Week 4, with only nine players putting up more than 10-fantasy points. Zach Ertz, Tyler Higbee and Mike Gesicki are normally surefire TE1's and they all finished outside the top-20.
The wide receiver position was fairly predictable but there were a few blow-up performances. Odell Beckham Jr., Amari Cooper, D.J. Chark, Adam Thielen, Mike Evans and CeeDee Lamb all finished with more than 25-fantasy points, and another six receivers eclipsed 20-points. Tim Patrick was the biggest surprise within the top-10, seeing seven targets in Courtland Sutton's absence.
At running back Antonio Gibson popped inside the top-five for the first time, touching the ball 17 times in a loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The rest of the top-five was rather predictable, but RB-6 through RB-8 were Jerick McKinnon, Mike Davis and Latavius Murray, who are all backups that either started due to injury or saw additional work due to game-flow. Now that Week 4 is behind us, let's take a look at some of these unexpected performances and evaluate whether these guys will continue to produce moving forward.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Sam Darnold, N.Y. Jets
Week 4 Stats: 23-of-42 passing, 230 yards, 6 carries, 84 yards, 1 TD
Sam Darnold finished Week 4 as a top-10 quarterback, scoring 23.6 fantasy points. While Darnold did produce fantasy points this week, let's talk about how he got there. Darnold completed 54.8% of his passes, averaged just 5.5 yards-per-attempt and lost 54 yards on six sacks. Darnold scored 10.6 of his fantasy points on his 46-yard touchdown run which looked kind of awkward, because it almost appeared that the Broncos defenders thought he was going to slide and didn't go full speed to tackle him.
Bottom Line: Don't rush out to your waiver wire and grab Sam Darnold unless you're in a two-quarterback league and you need help. Darnold is playing poorly and he should only be used if you're truly desperate and he has a good matchup.
Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns
Week 4 Stats: 8 targets, 5 catches, 81 yards, 2 TD, 2 carries, 73 yards, 1 TD
The Cowboys Defense has given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers and Odell Beckham Jr. absolutely destroyed them in Week 4. Beckham's stats were boosted by a 50-yard rushing touchdown where the Cowboys missed several tackles. Through four games, Beckham is on pace for 64 catches, 944 yards and 12 touchdowns. Nick Chubb is banged up and will miss some time, so the Browns may throw a little more in his absence.
Bottom Line: Odell Beckham Jr. may have some frustrating performances down the stretch because the Browns clearly want to run the ball, but he does have blow-up potential. If you believe in Beckham, then continue to roll him out there in your lineups, but if you're out, sell now because his value will never be higher.
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys
Week 4 Stats: 16 targets, 12 catches, 134 yards, 1 TD, 1-2PT
The Cleveland Browns dropped 49 points on the Cowboys in Week 4 which forced Dak Prescott to throw the ball 58 times. Amari Cooper finished as the WR-2 in Week 4 and given the way the Cowboys defense is performing, there should be more of these performances down the road. Cooper is now the No. 1 wide receiver on the season in PPR.
Bottom Line: Amari Cooper can be frustrating at times because he seemingly disappears during some matchups, but 2020 appears to be Cooper's year. Cooper currently leads the NFL in targets with 51 and he's well ahead of CeeDee Lamb who is second on the Cowboys with 29 targets.
Tim Patrick, Denver Broncos
Week 4 Stats: 7 targets, 6 catches, 113 yards, 1 TD
Tim Patrick isn't playing just because Courtland Sutton went down, Patrick has been played 77% of the Broncos offensive snaps on the season and was seeing the field even when Sutton was healthy. The Jets secondary struggled in Week 4, and Patrick cashed in on his opportunities.
Bottom Line: If you're in a deeper league, Patrick is worth a roster spot on your team. While Jerry Jeudy is clearly the best and most-targeted receiver on the Broncos roster, Patrick has some appeal as a deep threat, and should see some targets each week, especially with Noah Fant banged up.
Jeff Smith, N.Y. Jets
Week 4 Stats: 9 targets, 7 catches, 81 yards
Sam Darnold has thrown the ball 5.7 yards-per-attempt on the season which is near the bottom of the league. Darnold loves throwing the ball to the short and intermediate areas of the field, but it seemed like he was taking plenty of deep shots to Jeff Smith in Week 4. Breshad Perriman was out of the Jets lineup and Smith played 95% of the snaps against the Broncos in Perriman's place.
Bottom Line: If Breshad Perriman continues to miss time, Jeff Smith may be viable, because he's the only healthy deep-threat on the Jets roster. Smith is actually worth an add in deeper leagues as long as Perriman remains out of the lineup.
Robert Woods, L.A. Rams
Week 4 Stats: 7 targets, 6 catches, 35 yards, 1 carry, 2 yards
The Giants Defense actually gave Jared Goff and the Rams offense some problems in Week 4, limiting them to 17 points. Goff only threw for 200 yards and equally distributed the ball to Cooper Kupp and Woods, throwing it to each of them seven times. Kupp had the better matchup in the secondary and he broke free for a long touchdown.
Bottom Line: Robert Woods had a bad game from a production standpoint, and if the Robert Woods manager isn't feeling it, you may want to consider buying-low. If you have Robert Woods on your roster, hold steady.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Week 4 Stats: 25 carries, 151 yards, 2 TD, 6 targets, 6 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD
Joe Mixon played 83% of the Bengals offensive snaps and he dominated the Jaguars Defense. The Bengals started Alex Redmond at right guard and as a result, Mixon had running lanes and Joe Burrow wasn't under siege every time he dropped back to throw.
Bottom Line: If you held on to Joe Mixon through the first three weeks, congratulations, and continue to roll him out there in your lineups.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Week 4 Stats: 17 carries, 68 yards, 1 target, 1 catch, 11 yards
Jonathan Taylor only played 46% of the Colts Week 4-snaps in a game that the Colts controlled from the start. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins each had 9 carries, but they were only able to turn those carries into 39 yards which is horribly inefficient.
Bottom Line: Jonathan Taylor is clearly the Colts most talented play-maker but the lack of use is a little troubling. At times it seemed like there wasn't any rhyme or reason why the Colts deployed certain running backs in certain situations. While Taylor's usage is concerning, you cannot deny his talent, and he's a prime buy-low candidate.
Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints
Week 4 Stats: 14 carries, 64 yards, 2 TD, 2 targets, 1 catch, 19 yards
Latavius Murray played a season-high 41% of the Saints offensive snaps in Week 4 and carried the ball 14 times in a game where the Saints led for a majority of the time. The Saints were without their No. 1 receiver Michael Thomas and leaned on the running game to come away with the win over the Lions.
Bottom Line: If Alvin Kamara is on your roster, having Latavius Murray on your team is a necessity. If Kamara were to go down with an injury, Murray would be a surefire RB2. Murray does offer some stand-alone value, but he will usually be touchdown-dependent and should only be considered in deeper leagues while Kamara is healthy.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
Week 4 Stats: 15 targets, 15 catches, 183 yards, 1 TD
George Kittle is arguably the most physically gifted tight end in the league and he rarely comes off the field because he's such a good blocker. While Kittle has upside each week he plays, Week 4 was a perfect storm because the Eagles linebackers struggle badly in coverage. Kittle exploited this mismatch and put up one of the best single-game performances for a tight end in NFL history.
Bottom Line: George Kittle is great, but this will go down as his best game of the season. If another manager in your league is looking to pay a premium to get Kittle and you have decent tight end depth on your roster, you may want to consider selling-high if you need help at another position.
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