MLB Betting Picks (8/19/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

August 19, 2020

Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 8/19/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!

The Braves did exactly as I expected by scoring five runs on Austin Voth, but the Nationals turned back around and had one big inning against the Atlanta bullpen and that was all that was needed. Then we had some fireworks in the Philly/Boston game once the Phillies dropped seven runs in the sixth inning, after they had been trailing 4-2. This was obviously to our benefit.

• Tuesday, Aug 18th: 1-1 (-.12 units)
• 2020 Season Total: 11-16-2 (-5.79 units)

We had several games with big totals Tuesday, and it seems like offenses are finally starting to catchup with the pitching that had them stymied early on in the season. This will certainly be something to keep our eyes on moving forward. I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional and that each play is going to be "bet to lose" one unit. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but this is all supposed to be fun so please only do this if you enjoy it.

Our betting team has been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm pleased to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Wednesday, August 19th. My analysis will be a little shorter than normal today due to time constraints. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!

New York Mets (-265) at Miami Marlins

O/U: 7.5

NYM: Jacob deGrom, MIA: Pablo Lopez 

This has all the makings of a pitcher's duel as deGrom is one of the best arms in baseball and Lopez is a severely underrated arm because of the team he plays for. Both have been at their best so far, with ERA's below 2.50 and WHIP's below 1.15. The Marlins offense has been in the dumps recently, despite a hot start. Guys like Jesus Aguilar, Corey Dickerson, and Brian Anderson are fine pieces, but they can't be counted on to carry an entire lineup. On the Mets side, J.D. Davis and Robinson Cano are the two hot hitters at the moment, and while Lopez is in a good spot right now, he's struggled against lefties in the past and that's something the Mets have plenty of.

Pick: Mets Team Total o4.5 (-117, Draftkings) 1 Unit

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (-129)

O/U: 10

WAS: Erick Fedde, ATL: Kyle Wright

These two arms are chopped liver right now. Sure Fedde is carrying a 2.55 ERA, but his xBA, xSLG, K% , and Whiff % are some of the league's worst. Meanwhile, Wright has gotten shelled in three of his four outings and is carrying a 12/16 K/BB across 15 IP. That's terrible, considering he's Atlanta's 4th ranked prospect.

Offensively, both sides have been clicking the entire series, with totals in both games reaching 13. Since Aug. 10, both teams are hitting over .275 with Washington clubbing nine homers and Atlanta hitting eight. The Braves just haven't been the same without Ronald Acuna Jr., but the ensemble has done their best to give the pitching staff some run support. This is a juicy matchup for both lineups because not only are the starters not performing up to par right now, but Washington's bullpen has had to cover 8.2 innings while Atlanta's relievers have covered 11 innings this series.

Pick: Over 10 (-106, Draftkings) 1 Unit

Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres

O/U: 7

TEX: Lance Lynn, SD: Chris Paddack

Lynn is working his way towards a short-season Cy Young, allowing no more than four hits in any of his five starts, while also striking out at least six in every outing. The veteran righty will have a great matchup against a Padres team that is surely explosive, but have had their struggles against RHP in Petco Park. The Swingin Friars are hitting just .214 with a 25 K% in that situation since Aug. 3, but the .252 ISO shows they’re surely capable of damage.

Lynn’s mound opponent, Paddack, hasn’t been quite so bad, but Statcast seems to think a blowup is around the corner. He ranks in the 20th percentile or loser in xBA, xSLG, xERA, and Barrel %. At 24, he certainly has a bright future, but having served up seven homers in just five starts is not a strong start for the tall righty.

It’s hard to bet against the Padres bats of late, but Lynn is arguably the best pitcher is baseball right now and SD might be relying a little too much on the heroics of Fernando Tatis Jr., so I’m going to take the value they’re giving us with targeting the better pitcher.

Pick: Texas ML (+116, Fanduel) 1 Unit

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