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With the NFL Draft approaching, Kev Mahserejian continues with his ideal landing spots and dream destinations for the 2020 wide receiver rookie class, both in redraft and dynasty leagues for fantasy football purposes.
We've already covered the top tier of rookie wide receivers from the 2020 NFL Draft class and where their best and worst landing spots would be. This article continues in the same vein, continuing with some very talented receivers as well but whose short-term fates could be hindered due to particular team situations. Both the best-case and worst-case scenarios are simply in regards to fantasy value.
Wide receivers are made in all shapes and sizes and come with various abilities and strengths. Some players listed are so talented that it would not matter who is on their team in three years given that they would be the workhorse WR regardless. Talent overcomes location at the end of the day but at least for redraft purposes, these WRs may struggle with certain teams.
The "Dream Destinations" are based on fit in particular offenses around the leagues. Factors considered when selecting the teams included position depth, talent/skill overlap, and function of offense. Not only is future fantasy value for dynasty/redraft taken into account, but also, how a player complements the current roster in place along with any future standalone value. Also, the destinations are based on draft positioning so bear in mind that if another receiver is thought to have been taken earlier for a team, they may not be in the market for one of these players.
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Michael Pittman Jr., USC
Dream Destinations: Colts, Vikings
Worst Case: Buccaneers
Michael Pittman Jr. is one of the more unheralded WR prospects in this year's class. His knocks include a later breakout age and issues with finding holes in zone coverage, however, his positives heavily outweigh those.
He is not someone to project as a WR1 in the NFL, but he can absolutely thrive in any offense operating as a high-end WR2. Pittman's mix of height, weight, and speed is incredible. He is a big-bodied target that not only beats corners off the line one-on-one but also makes tough contested catches. My comp for him is Marvin Jones Jr.
Pittman's ideal landing spots include Indianapolis and Minnesota. He can thrive in both offenses playing next to talented wideouts like T.Y. Hilton and Adam Thielen with a veteran quarterback slinging him the ball.
Minnesota is probably better for any rookie than Indianapolis given that they are at least tied to their QB past 2020. Cousins gets a lot of flak online but dang it, he is accurate. Pittman can operate in the screen-game and as a deep threat while offering very savvy blocking skills. He is a welcome addition to any team he joins.
The Buccaneers are the worst-case scenario for similar reasons to Henry Ruggs III. While Brady can still take the occasional deep shot, he isn't what he used to be and 43 is very much pushing it into "washed up" territory. Having to compete with Evans and Godwin would be a pain for Pittman as a WR3 from the jump and having to fight for deep targets with Evans will be a pain.
Justin Jefferson, LSU
Dream Destinations: Packers, Saints
Worst Case: Vikings
Jefferson is one of the most well-rounded WRs in this class. High-floor is an overused term but he is the definition of it. Jefferson has been productive since 2018 and displays natural skills on the field from his receiving ability to his willingness to stand next to the OL and block for the offense.
He has 4.4 speed but for some reason looks a little slower on film and can often look clunky turning around. His cuts on slants though are extremely clean and he is very capable of creating extra yardage with the ball in his hands.
Jefferson has a good bit of wiggle in the open field with the ability to not only make defenders miss tackles but also run straight past them. He had an insane 91 percent catch rate last year fueled by a historic year from projected number-one pick Joe Burrow along with plenty of shorter, open passes that allowed for YAC opportunities.
The Packers and Saints are ideal fits for Jefferson because he would get an opportunity to play next to elite WR1s in Michael Thomas or Davante Adams with elite, veteran QBs like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees throwing to him. Jefferson could be plugged into the slot position right from the jump, given that both teams have a need there, and produce modestly as a rookie. Jefferson is not someone teams should ask much from in his first few seasons but with some growth, he could potentially develop into a great receiver.
Jefferson is a peculiar fit in Minnesota because of how much he played out of the slot in LSU. He rarely ran on the outside and I'd worry about him facing talented perimeter corners and consistent press coverage. Also, Adam Thielen is best served in the slot and that overlap does not project too well.
Jefferson is an experienced player but could get rattled by physical play early in his career. While he does have the speed to get open deep, I'm worried about him getting knocked off of routes and getting lost in the defense. Minnesota is expected to continue playing more 12-personnel to focus on blocking for Dalvin Cook and expanding the role last year's second-round pick Irv Smith Jr. Someone speedy like Jefferson is a need next to Thielen but a better fit would be someone bigger and more imposing.
Bryan Edwards, South Carolina
Dream Destinations: Texans, Raiders
Worst Case: Patriots
Bryan Edwards is someone you really have to watch to understand. Without any definitive combine numbers, there are not accurate data points as to how athletic he truly is. He is an awesome receiver who saw half of his targets come behind the line of scrimmage.
That could be seen as a negative by some but to me, it's a huge positive. Despite the South Carolina offense probably not being capable of downfield passes, it shows trust in Edwards as a playmaker with the ball in his hands (which he definitely is).
Edwards has some insane high-end player profiler ratings like a 94th percentile college dominator rating and 100th!! percentile breakout age at 17. Edwards' skillset is still in development but he has been productive (by poor-offensive surrounding standards) since his freshman season by posting at least 500 yards and four touchdowns each year. He reminds me of a more fluid version of his fellow U of SC Gamecock, Alshon Jeffery. They are comparable not only by size but also how they play downfield in traffic.
While he shows it on tape against legitimate ACC competition, there are question marks as to whether he will be able to separate at the next level, on top of having come off a broken foot that kept him out of the combine. Foot injuries are often tricky, which might concern teams.
Nevertheless, Edwards is one of the most exciting receiving prospects in this class. He has a true WR1 body. Edwards could end up as the best out of this class and it would not shock me. For now, we have to limit excitement and be realistic. Edwards is a Day Two draft prospect with the possibility of sliding to Day Three if teams opt to go a different route in this deep class.
Houston is a great landing spot for Edwards, particularly if they cut Kenny Stills and/or Keke Coutee. He'd have an open opportunity to start even sooner and would take over DeAndre Hopkins' role as the short and intermediate threat on the field. While he is definitely nowhere near Hopkins' level, he is capable of fulfilling the same duties. Edwards could become a favorite target of Deshaun Watson on bubble screens and throws to the sideline but might need more refinement before developing into a true number-one option.
While the Patriots do have a need at WR, they just drafted N'Keal Harry last season, who fills a very similar role as Edwards. It is not out of the question to have two WRs who fill similar archetypes, but for fantasy, it is a nuisance. Harry was their first-round pick last season and will probably have a decent leash by Belichickian standards.
Edwards will have to go through the Patriots' ringer of trials to see the field and even if he does, the smallest mistake could land him in the dog house. Obviously, Edwards' talents could speak for themselves if he shows out in practice and early in the season but for now, it is hard to project him for success in New England.
Tee Higgins, Clemson
Dream Destinations: Colts, Texans
Worst Case: Rams
Tee Higgins is a former top high school recruit who produced in college, helped his team win a national title and has the body of a prototypical WR1. His athletic testing is fairly mediocre though for a guy who put up 118 catches, 2103 yards, and 25 TD over the past two seasons in one of the toughest conferences in the country. Higgins comes off as a future red-zone threat and a jump ball dominator with his insane catch-radius.
Higgins best fits an offense with speed but no size. The Colts and Texans are perfect landing spots to fill this niche role as receivers corps like Fuller/Cooks or Hilton/Campbell are perfect complementary receivers to allow Higgins space to thrive in the intermediate and deep field along with attracting enough attention in the end-zone to not leave Higgins over-covered.
Deshaun Watson is certainly going to miss having DeAndre Hopkins around but replacing him with a bigger, though less talented Clemson product should be sufficient moving forward. Unfortunately, the Colts are in a much more advantageous spot in the second round to select him given that they pick ahead of Houston.
The Rams are now in need of another starting-caliber wide receiver after trading away Brandin Cooks. They have an extremely talented skill-corps at the moment with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett as their starting pass-catching options, but need a field-stretcher in the draft to properly space the offense.
Higgins would be a poor fit here as they are not a team that relies heavily on balls thrown in traffic nor are they lacking in red-zone threats. Also, for fantasy purposes, Higgins would not be as heavily targeted as we would like. It is possible that Higgins is available when the Rams' first selection is up but they absolutely should pass if he slips to the mid-second round.
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