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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Wild Card Weekend of the Fantasy Football season. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in each of the four playoff games this weekend.
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Bills @ Texans
More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Deshaun Watson under 250.5 passing yards and Josh Allen over 220.5 passing yards.
The total on this game is only 43.5, which currently stands as the lowest total on the board and should mean less passing overall. However, Houston is a slight favorite, which means Buffalo may need to throw the ball a bit more late in the game to win. This is and the way the defenses set up are why I like the respective prop choices.
Buffalo has been stout against the pass, especially in recent weeks. They have allowed only 773 passing yards over the previous four weeks, which averages out to 193.25 yards per game and ranks fifth-best over that span. On the season as a whole, the Bills rank fourth-best against the pass by only allowing 213.81 passing yards per game to quarterbacks. The Bills also only allowed over 265.5 passing yards by a QB a total of four times this season. It should also be noted that Will Fuller is again questionable for this game. If he does not play, this total likely drops further.
On the flip side, the Texans have not been very good vs. the pass this season and especially in the previous four weeks. Houston has given up 1,121 passing yards over the previous four games, which averages out to 280.25 yards per game and ranks fourth-worst in the league. On the season, the Texans have also allowed just over 280 passing yards per game and rank fourth-worst in the league. While Allen has only managed to eclipse this total six times on the season, the setup in this game and the weak secondary of Houston should help him get over the total. Also, the Texans run defense should be much better with the return of J.J. Watt, which means the best way to attack them will be through the air.
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Titans @ Patriots
Touchdown Dance Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Derrick Henry, Julian Edelman, and Sony Michel over 1.5 touchdowns.
This game has the second-lowest total on the board at 44, but we should still see a decent amount of touchdown opportunities from these teams and especially with the three players mentioned above. These three players have combined for a total of 31 touchdowns on the season and should be able to produce at least two more combined this week.
Derrick Henry has been a beast this season as he has rushed for over 1,500 yards and 16 touchdowns while also getting involved in the passing game for over 200 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. In the previous four weeks, Henry has scored a whopping six touchdowns. If Tennessee is going to have any chance of winning this game, they will need to get Henry going early and often and he will almost certainly have to find the end zone for them to win.
Julian Edelman has been Tom Brady's top target in 2019 as he has garnered 153 targets of which he has caught 100 for 1,117 and six touchdowns. While the six touchdowns may seem low, the volume and opportunity to score cannot be denied. If you were going to select one player from New England to score, Edelman would have to be at or near the top of that list. The Titans have also allowed seven passing touchdowns over the previous four weeks, which ranks ninth-worst in the league.
The final choice for this prop is Sony Michel. While I understand he has been largely a disappointment on the season, he has managed to get into the end zone seven times. He has averaged over 15 carries per game, so again, like Edelman, the volume and opportunity will be there. The Titans have also allowed five rushing touchdowns to backs over the previous four weeks, which is the fifth-most over that span.
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Vikings @ Saints
Reception Collection Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Adam Thielen over 22.5 receptions.
This game has the highest total on the board with 49.5 points expected and should feature plenty of passing from both of these teams.
This prop starts with Michael Thomas who has caught 149 passes on 185 targets this season, which averages out to over nine receptions per game on over 11 targets per game. He has been a monster this season to be sure. Over the previous four weeks, he has hauled in 39 receptions on a whopping 53 targets. He has also caught over 10 passes in nine games this season. Minnesota has struggled against the pass of late as well by allowing 63 receptions to wide receivers over the previous four weeks, which ranks second-worst in the league. They are going to have their hands full vs. Thomas, who should have a monster game.
Alvin Kamara has been Drew Brees's number two weapon this season as he has been targeted 97 times and hauled in 81 receptions. These average out to over six targets and over five receptions per game. In the previous four weeks, Kamara has 17 receptions on 21 targets and has seen himself turn back into a focal point for this Saints' offense. Minnesota has also struggled against pass-catching backs of late as they have given up 32 receptions to running backs over the past four weeks, which ranks second-worst in the league. This should be a prime spot for Kamara to put up solid numbers in the passing game.
Adam Thielen should also be able to produce solid numbers in the passing game this week. He will almost certainly play out of the slot and will avoid Marshon Lattimore for the most part, which is great news for this prop. Through the first six weeks of the season, Thielen averaged over six targets and over four receptions per game. There is little doubt how important he will need to be to this Vikings passing game if they expect to win. The fact that the Vikings are eight-point underdogs also means the passing volume should increase late in the game for them to keep pace with the Saints.
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Seahawks @ Eagles
More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: D.K. Metcalf over 57.5 receiving yards and Greg Ward over 4.5 receptions
Both of these teams have struggled a bit vs. the pass on the season and that is the main reason for highlighting this prop selection.
The Eagles have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers on the season with 2,809 or 175.6 yards allowed per game. Metcalf has been one of Wilson's top targets this season as he has averaged nearly seven targets per game over the last half of the season. He has also racked up over 70 receiving yards in five of his previous seven full games played. He should find plenty of space in this game vs. this Eagles secondary and be able to eclipse the prop total.
Greg Ward has come on strong since having to step in for the banged-up Eagles wide receiving corps. He has averaged 7.5 targets and 5.25 receptions per game over his previous four games. The Seahawks have been stronger against the pass in recent weeks as they have allowed only 41 receptions to wide receivers, but they have allowed the 12th-most receptions to wide receivers on the season with 198 or 12.4 per game. The Eagles are slight (1.5) point dogs in this game, so more passing could be in store late if they are attempting a comeback. Also, the running back situation for Philadelphia is still in limbo as Miles Sanders' status is still questionable. If he doesn't play, we could easily see more passes funneled to the Eagle wide receivers.
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