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We are early in the baseball season, which means it’s time to make rash judgments based on small samples!
Okay, maybe that’s not the ideal approach, but as the games start to accumulate, some of these early trends are going to be worth paying attention to.
As always, match-ups will play an important role in establishing player value from one day to the next, so always keep starting pitchers in mind.
Tonight, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Blake Snell and Chris Sale are among the aces on the hill. If you want to pick against those guys, do it at your own peril.
There are a dozen games on the schedule tonight, so here are some angles to consider from every one of those games.
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DETROIT-YANKEES
RAPID FIRE
Luke Voit +0.5 runs + RBI vs. Aaron Judge – This isn’t so much a problem with Judge as the favorite, but he gets the benefit of being a brand name slugger. Since joining the Yankees last season, Voit is averaging 1.58 runs plus RBI per game. Since the start of last season, Judge is averaging 1.20 runs + RBI per game.
PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON
OVER/UNDERS
Bryce Harper UNDER 1.5 RUNS + RBI – While he has slugged two home runs in his first three games for the Phillies, this will be a great time for Harper to find out just how fun it is to face Nationals ace Max Scherzer.
MILWAUKEE CINCINNATI
RAPID FIRE
Christian Yelich -0.5 total bases vs. Jesus Aguilar – No home run for Yelich Monday, ending his four-game streak to start the season. He’s averaging 4.2 total bases per game in the early going, so let him cool off a bit before fading his performance.
BALTIMORE-TORONTO
OVER/UNDERS
Marcus Stroman UNDER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS – Although he had an impressive first start, striking out seven against the Tigers, Stroman recorded six or more strikeouts just three times in 19 starts last season. 2019 is supposed to be better, but it would be a tad presumptuous to presume he’s all good now based on one start against the Tigers.
COLORADO-TAMPA BAY
RAPID FIRE
Tommy Pham -0.5 runs + RBI vs. Nolan Arenado – Since landing in Tampa Bay last season, Pham is putting up 1.41 runs + RBI per game, an impressive rate. Arenado is one of the most consistent offensive performers in baseball, averaging 1.35 but, like most Rockies, Arenado is much more productive at home and facing AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell is a tough pitching match-up.
METS-MIAMI
OVER/UNDERS
Robinson Cano UNDER 1.5 RUNS + RBI – Since homering in his first at-bat for the Mets, Cano is on a 1-for-18 slide with seven strikeouts. He will break out of it, but it doesn’t make sense to expect significant production when he’s struggling like this.
HOUSTON-TEXAS
RAPID FIRE
George Springer +0.5 runs + RBI vs. Alex Bregman – In the first week of the season, we’re obviously dealing with small sample sizes, but Bregman is 1-for-17 on the season. Thus, Springer plus the half run/RBI is the way to go.
MINNESOTA-KANSAS CITY
OVER/UNDERS
Brad Keller OVER 4.5 STRIKEOUTS – Not especially overpowering, averaging 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings in his career, Keller did strikeout five in his first start of the season and at least five in three of his last four starts in September. A home game against Minnesota is a fair match-up to do it again.
BOSTON-OAKLAND
OVER/UNDERS
Stephen Piscotty UNDER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – Piscotty is off to a decent start this season, with 10 total bases in seven games, but facing Red Sox ace Chris Sale is not a reason to expect better results.
ARIZONA-SAN DIEGO
RAPID FIRE
David Peralta -0.5 total bases vs. Ketel Marte – Peralta is clearly the better hitter, with the better track record throughout his career, and he’s also off to a nice start this season, with 16 total bases in five games.
L.A. ANGELS-SEATTLE
RAPID FIRE
George Springer +0.5 runs + RBI vs. Alex Bregman – In the first week of the season, we’re obviously dealing with small sample sizes, but Bregman is 1-for-17 on the season. Thus, Springer plus the half run/RBI is the way to go.
SAN FRANCISCO-L.A. DODGERS
OVER/UNDERS
Hyun-Jin Ryu OVER 4.5 STRIKEOUTS – The Giants lineup isn’t especially formidable and Ryu has recorded at least five strikeouts in seven of his past eight starts going back to last season.
