RADIO
We're a quarter of the way through the fantasy football season, which means we're starting to get some good data to help us make decisions. Gone are the "ehh, sure, let's judge off one week of production" issues that plague the early days and here are the "okay, so that defense actually is good, I can't play my mediocre tight end against them" issues.
This week's list once again features two quarterbacks, but if you look back at my past columns you can pretty clearly see that my hit rate on quarterbacks has been...low. Not really sure why I can tell you which backs and receivers not to play but keep getting burned by quarterbacks, unless the reason is that quarterback numbers are up across the board relative to last year.
Below are 10 lineup busts and avoids for Week 5 of NFL action.
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Top 10 Busts - NFL Week 5
Baker Mayfield (QB, Cleveland Browns)
Through four games, only two teams allow fewer points to quarterbacks than the Baltimore Ravens and those two below them are playing against Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes this week, who are "being on this list"-proof at this point. That leaves me lowest on Mayfield when it comes to matchup-based rankings. And while there's a lot to like about Mayfield's potential, his 51.2 completion percentage against the Raiders doesn't inspire much confidence against a defense as good as Baltimore's.
Case Keenum (QB, Denver Broncos)
Case Keenum might not be the franchise quarterback that the Broncos were hoping for. Keenum currently ranks 28th in completion percentage and has the second-highest interception percentage in the NFL, and this week he faces a Jets defense that's been...well, it's honestly been a pretty up-and-down campaign from the New York defense, but they've held two of the four quarterbacks (or, in the case of Cleveland, quarterback platoons) they've faced to 12.8 or fewer fantasy points. I like their chances of stopping Keenum, even if they're just a week removed from failing to stop Blake Bortles.
Carlos Hyde (RB, Cleveland Browns)
So, back to that Ravens defense for a minute. Through four games, they've allowed just one touchdown to a running back. Meanwhile, Carlos Hyde leads in the NFL in carries right now, but he's just 36th in yards per carry. He's a non-factor in the passing game, and it wouldn't be a shock to see the Browns give a few more carries to rookie Nick Chubb this week after he found the end zone on two of his three carries in Week 4. Hyde's got a solid floor because he's going to touch the ball so many times, but I don't see any major upside with him this week.
LeSean McCoy (RB, Buffalo Bills)
Buffalo gets a tough Titans run defense, McCoy still isn't at 100 percent after a rib injury, and also McCoy...hasn't been that good this year, a fact that's been helped along by the Bills offense not being very good. McCoy only received 31.3 percent of the team's carries in Week 4 and his role right now feels murky, with the Bills wanting to mix Chris Ivory in and also use quarterback Josh Allen as a runner as well. McCoy is a flex option at best this week.
Dalvin Cook (RB, Minnesota Vikings)
Speaking of injured running back, let's not forget Dalvin Cook! A hamstring injury limited him to 10 carries in Week 4, he's still dealing with the issue and has missed practice time this week, and Minnesota has a tough matchup with the Eagles. I know you spent a high draft pick on Cook, but consider sitting him this week as he'll very likely see a limited number of touches.
Devin Funchess (WR, Carolina Panthers)
Funchess hasn't been bad this year, but he's been a little forgettable thanks to Carolina's early bye week. This week, though, I'm avoiding him as much as possible against the Giants and cornerback Janoris Jenkins. No team allows fewer fantasy points to wide receivers, with the Giants even shutting down Michael Thomas last week. Funchess is a tough player to trust this week.
Doug Baldwin (WR, Seattle Seahawks)
Doug Baldwin is back, but he's still dealing with knee issues. He was targeted seven times against the Cardinals, finishing with five catches and 41 yards. He had a team-high 66 air yards, but also just six yards after the catch. It's likely that Baldwin struggles to gain many yards after his receptions this season as he deals with that knee issue. It's also likely that the Rams defense puts the clamps on a not-100 percent Baldwin. I have him out of all my lineups.
Geronimo Allison (WR, Green Bay Packers)
Assuming Allison is able to play after suffering a concussion last week, he faces an uphill battle against a Lions squad that has allowed the second-fewest points to wide receivers this season. Randall Cobb (hamstring) missing another game would obviously help -- I have Allison unstartable if Cobb plays and a WR3 at best if Cobb doesn't, based on the difficult matchup.
Eric Ebron (TE, Indianapolis Colts)
Ebron's off to a strong start to his first season with the Colts, finding the end zone three times in the first four weeks. Jack Doyle won't play on Thursday, giving Ebron control of the tight end position again this week, but the Patriots have allowed just 19 receiving yards to tight ends over the past two weeks. It'll be tough for Ebron to be productive in this one.
Charles Clay (TE, Buffalo Bills)
Before Zach Ertz happened last week, the Titans defense had held tight ends to seven catches and 69 yards through the first three weeks of the season. Clay had his best game of the season last week, a four-catch, 40-yard outing against the Packers, but Green Bay had been struggling the previous two weeks against tight ends, presenting Clay with a prime opportunity to break out which he couldn't grasp. The Titans are a tougher test for Clay, who finds himself in line to struggle in Week 5.
