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Week after week it seems we're getting huge quarterback performances out of nowhere. It was Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes stealing the show through the first few weeks, but this week a few different unlikely quarterbacks stepped up to the plate.
Tampa Bay and Chicago are on bye for Week 5. Neither team has a universally started quarterback, but those that have been relying on Fitzpatrick will have to look elsewhere, perhaps permanently. We also can't immediately use Mr. Six-Touchdowns Mitch Trubisky either. Owners of Russell Wilson may want to consider using a streamer this week, both because Seattle faces the Rams and Wilson's production has been poor thus far.
In standard one quarterback leagues the waiver wire is usually pretty rich with talent at the position, unless the league is full of owners that like to hold backup quarterbacks. In two-quarterback leagues, nearly every starter is rostered and the waiver wire tends to be quite barren for quality arms. That’s why a few quarterbacks owned in 15% of leagues or fewer have been included, so even owners in deep leagues have someone to consider. Ownership is based on Yahoo leagues and is current as of September 30.
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Week 5 Waiver Wire Quarterbacks
Alex Smith, WAS @ New Orleans Saints – 54% owned
Smith was dropped in some leagues heading into the bye week, meaning he’ll be out there in nearly half of Yahoo leagues for a Week 5 date with the Saints in New Orleans. New Orleans has generally been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, and even though they held Eli Manning in check the Saints are a defense to target with quarterbacks. Smith has been serviceable so far this year, with only Week 2 against Indianapolis acting as a big disappointment. He was the number four quarterback last season, and we should see shades of that guy in Week 5. Smith and Washington haven’t been tested in a shootout through their first three games which is why Smith’s true fantasy ceiling hasn’t been reached yet.
After Week 5 the upcoming schedule isn’t great for Smith. He faces Carolina, Dallas, and the New York Giants over the next three weeks. After that he has a nice three game stretch starting in Week 10 against Atlanta. It’ll be Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Houston, which should be great for him. Smith is usable next week, then can be dropped or benched, and then should be picked back up prior to Week 10 for the game against Atlanta.
Derek Carr, OAK @ Los Angeles Chargers – 35% owned
Perhaps we collectively gave up on Carr too early. Going into this week he had the sixth most passing yards in the NFL. He did that against a tough schedule too, facing the Rams, Broncos, and Dolphins with a healthy Reshad Jones. His yardage hadn’t translated into much fantasy production however, as Carr totaled just 40.3 points in the first three weeks. He came close to that total in Oakland’s overtime win over Cleveland with 33.5 points. Overall Carr was 35-for-58 passing with 437 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions. That is a lot of volume, and while Carr might not throw the ball 58 times every game, the Oakland defense is bad enough that he’ll be throwing often. Amari Cooper showed up for this game, and Carr is getting good production from veterans such as Jared Cook, Jordy Nelson, and Marshawn Lynch as well.
Carr has a great matchup in Week 5 against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have allowed 21.7 points per game to opposing quarterbacks thus far, and that includes the first start for both Josh Allen and C.J. Beathard. Carr is probably a sit for Week 6 against Seattle, even though they just lost Earl Thomas. After that it’s a bye week for Carr, and after the bye it’s primarily good matchups. Only Baltimore in Week 12 and Denver in Week 16 could be considered tough pass defenses.
Marcus Mariota, TEN @ Buffalo Bills – 33% owned
Mariota is healthy once again and came up big for Tennessee in their 26-23 win over Philadelphia in Week 4. He was 30-for-43 passing for 344 yards and two touchdowns with one interception last week. Mariota also pitched in with his legs, rushing for 46 yards and a touchdown. He showed everyone what he is capable of against a strong Philadelphia defense. Mariota has been dropped in many leagues after a rough 2017 season and suffering an injury in Week 1, making him available in most standard leagues. Mariota was a top-12 quarterback in 2016, and with his dual-threat ability can return to fantasy usefulness again. Corey Davis is also looking like the best receiver Mariota has ever had, and the two could be a nice pairing all year.
His upcoming schedule is mostly favorable as well. He gets Buffalo next week, a team that looks incompetent in every facet of the game. Week 6 might be a little rough against Baltimore, but after that it’s the Los Angeles Chargers, a bye week, and then smooth sailing in terms of matchups until Week 14 against Jacksonville. Owners still scrambling to replace Jimmy Garoppolo should consider Mariota for the long term.
Blake Bortles, JAX @ Kansas City Chiefs – 32% owned
It’s been up-and-down for Bortles during the first four weeks of the season. He had 14.3 points in Week 1, 33.5 in Week 2, 8.9 in Week 3, and 25.3 in Week 4. It looks like Bortles can handle the soft secondaries, as his big weeks came against New England and the New York Jets, two teams with questionable pass defenses. His poor weeks were against Tennessee and the New York Giants, two teams that have upgraded their secondary from last year and have shown much better results thus far. Against a bad secondary like Kansas City Bortles should be able to put up points, and with the emergence of weapons like Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole, and Donte Moncrief Bortles may have his best receivers since Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns were at their peak.
Bortles is a quarterback that should only be trusted based on matchup, and he has a good one in Week 5 against the Chiefs. After that things get a little sketchy as Bortles takes on Dallas, Houston, and Philadelphia heading into a Week 9 bye. After the bye it gets better. Bortles takes on Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Indianapolis again between weeks 10-13. Like Alex Smith Bortles is someone to add for next week, drop after that game, and then add before that nice stretch begins.
Deeper League and Two-QB League Options
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears (BYE in Week 5) – 15% owned
If we learned anything this week it’s that you can start everybody against Tampa Bay. Their secondary is constructed full of no-names, and the names most people might recognize are not for good reasons. Brent Grimes looks every bit his age at 35, while Carlton Davis looks every bit his as a 21-year-old rookie. This is the weakest pass defense in the NFL, and they have only gotten worse with injuries, since incumbent starters Vernon Hargreaves and Chris Conte have both hit injured reserve. The fact that losing those two is detrimental speaks volumes to the quality of talent in this secondary.
If it sounds like the previous paragraph is diminishing Trubisky’s six-touchdown performance in Week 4, that’s because it is, a little bit. Trubisky scored 43.5 points in standard, four-point per passing touchdown leagues in this game. Over his last four games Trubisky scored a combined 41.3 points in standard scoring, dating back to Week 16 of 2017. Prior to this game Trubisky hadn’t shown many signs of improvement in the NFL, and while he should be added based on performance and pedigree in deeper leagues, let’s not drain our FAAB on him. Chicago has a bye week in Week 5, and after that it’s four straight games against the AFC East. Chicago takes on Miami, New England, the New York Jets, and Buffalo between Week 6-9, in that order. Those aren’t bad matchups, but Trubisky is a streamer or deeper league option, not someone to go crazy over despite a huge week.
C.J. Beathard, SF vs. Arizona Cardinals – 3% owned
While ultimately outdueled by Philip Rivers, Beathard played admirably in his season debut last week against the Chargers. He was 23-for-37 passing with 298 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions. It wasn’t a masterful performance by any means, but better than you might think. That’s the mantra those relying on Beathard should repeat to themselves, “Better than you might think.” Last year he had a couple of decent performances, including a 25-point game against the Giants in Week 10. The weapons in San Francisco aren’t terrible either, with Matt Breida, Marquise Goodwin, George Kittle, and Pierre Garcon. Beathard even chips in with his legs at times, rushing 26 times for 136 yards and three touchdowns last year and seven times for 19 yards in this game. In two-quarterback leagues or super-flex leagues Beathard should be owned. There will almost certainly be some stinkers from him, but for deep leagues he can used against a bad secondary.
San Francisco faces a soft schedule in terms of opposing defenses up until their Week 11 bye. Only the Rams are a truly tough matchup, and the Giants are a borderline tough matchup right now. The Giants have mostly been good, but it’s too early to be sure they are legitimate. After the bye week he’d face the best matchup in the universe against Tampa Bay as well. For owners desperate for a warm body you could do worse than Beathard.
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