RADIO
Hello and welcome back to Horse For The Course! Brooks Koepka walked away with the victory at a very wild U.S. Open last week. Several of our Horses and Ponies were in serious contention over the weekend. I hope the picks translated into DFS success for you folks that read this column. Using the info available here at RotoBaller, I was fortunate enough to have a fighting chance in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker on Sunday, before eventually finishing in 24th place. This week the PGA Tour resumes it's regular tournament schedule and heads to Connecticut for the Travelers Championship. While not quite a major championship caliber field, the Travelers draws some great players this year thanks to it's close proximity to last week's U.S. Open and will have eight of the world's top 15 golfers in the field this week. This tournament is a longstanding stop on the PGA Tour, so we have extensive results to examine. Let's keep the positive momentum going this week and dive in!
Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. This is not a traditional picks column, but rather an attempt to pinpoint players that have outstanding results at a specific course. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Course: TPC River Highlands - Par 70 - 6,841 Yards
We go from the brutality of Shinnecock Hills to the much more birdie-friendly TPC River Highlands this week. This is the course where Jim Furyk shot a 58 a couple of years ago, so there will be some scoring. This course is a Pete Dye design and we've seen very specific types of players thrive on other Dye courses, but TPC River Highlands has had a very diverse group of winners in it's history. Water is a huge factor here and is a main component of the course's highlight stretch of holes. A huge 4-acre lake is the centerpiece of holes 15 thru 17 and can add some major excitement on Sunday afternoons.
The Horse
Paul Casey (DraftKings - $9,600 & FanDuel - $11,200 )
Our horse this week seems to be on a hot streak that never ends. Paul Casey has been been picky with his scheduling choices in 2018 and was forced to withdraw from The Players Championship with an injury, but he has made the most of his limited tournament appearances...making nine of 10 cuts this season, including a long overdue win on the PGA Tour at the Valspar Championship in March. This selection is more a blend of course history and recent form than anything else. Casey's results at the Travelers Championship aren't as extensive as I normally require to name a player the horse for the week, but the results in his three visits to Connecticut have been too impressive to ignore. Over the last three years at TPC River Highlands, Casey has logged a solo second in 2015, a T-17 in 2016, and a T-5 last year. In his 12 career rounds in the Travelers, Casey owns a 67.25 scoring average.
Casey won't blow you away in one single stat category, but like his game, his stats are solid across the board. Casey ranks 13th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 15th in SG: Approach the Green, and 29th in Ball Striking. The concern with Casey is always his ability to putt. It has always been the weakest part of his game and something that he still struggles to be consistent with. The best thing that can be said about Casey's work on the greens is that he tends to be streaky and does have the ability to putt well in spurts. He has looked more comfortable with the flatstick this season and putted lights out in the final round of the Valspar on the way to victory. He has also had no problem handling the greens at TPC River Highlands in his previous visits.
I like the safety that Casey offers this week. He is a wonderful player to start both cash and tournament lineups with. He seems to always be a popular DFS choice and I expect that to be the case again this week. There are other players in Casey's price range that have excellent course history, Patrick Reed and Marc Leishman are two names that come to mind, but I'm giving the edge to Casey this week due to his overall consistency both in the Travelers Championship and throughout this season.
The Ponies
Bubba Watson (DK - $8,800 & FD - $10,400 )
Perhaps more than any other player on the PGA Tour, I feel that course history is of the utmost importance when evaluating Bubba Watson's prospects in a tournament. Those of you that follow PGA DFS closely or are just big golf fans, probably know that Bubba is a little different. Watson has a very particular personality and it carries over to his play. He either loves or hates courses. Watson has fared extremely well on courses that fit his eye. Like Augusta National, TPC River Highlands is a favorite of Bubba's and like The Masters, he has won the the Travelers Championship two times. Watson took home the Travelers title in 2010 and 2015 and has logged several impressive finishes at TPC River Highlands, including a T-6 in 2008, a T-2 in 2012, and a solo fourth in 2013.
We all know that Watson has been dominant with the driver throughout his career and that is once again the case in 2018. Bubba is fifth in SG: Off the Tee this season, but has also had great success finding greens and ranks 11th in Greens in Regulation Percentage. Watson has struggled a bit over the past couple of months, but echoing what I mentioned in the previous paragraph, the tournaments he's played recently weren't on "Bubba courses". We have always seen Watson struggle at The Players Championship and he has never really been cut out for U.S. Opens. In fact, Bubba missed the cut at the 2015 U.S. Open before winning this event the following week. In short, I'm not concerned about the perception that Watson is in poor form heading into this week.
I believe that recency bias will play a part in Bubba's ownership this week. I'm hoping that casual DFS players will look at his recent results and scroll past Watson's name. I also believe that some players in Watson's price range, like Daniel Berger and Webb Simpson, will be very popular and soak up a fair bit of ownership. I've never advocated using Bubba in cash games and I'm not going to start now, but I believe Watson is an excellent large-field GPP play this week. Anytime I can grab a player with tournament-winning upside for $8,800 I'm firing away.
Brendan Steele (DK - $7,600 & FD - $9,500 )
We go from a legendary driver of the golf ball, to a player that is low-key excellent with the big dog. Brendan Steele is a player that doesn't get much media attention, he just quietly goes about his business and piles up made cuts. After a blistering start to the season where he picked up a win in the fall and reeled off eight consecutive made cuts, Steele has sputtered a bit since March. Since a missed cut in The Masters, he has teed it up only three times with less than stellar results. This week should be a "get right" spot for Steele. He has been tremendous at TPC River Highlands in his career, making six cuts in seven appearances and owns a 68.08 scoring average on the Pete Dye layout. He logged a T-5 in 2014 and has racked up five Top-25's in the Travelers.
Like Bubba Watson, Steele's success on this Pete Dye track directly correlates to his ability with the driver. He is eighth in SG: Off the Tee on the PGA Tour this season. Steele also brings great ball striking to the table and sits 24th in SG: Tee to Green and 32nd in SG: Approach the Green. Where we hope to see Steele come through this week is on the greens. He has been absolutely dismal with the putter in his hand, ranking an almost unbelievable 201st in Total Putting. Yes, that stat is scary, but don't hop off the Steele train just yet. Players at this level can get hot with the flatstick at any time and with Steele's ball striking ability we only need a mediocre effort on the greens from him this week.
I wish that Steele's recent play would put a damper on his ownership levels, but I don't think that will be the case. I expect him to be an extremely popular play at his $7,600 DraftKings price tag. His course history demands DFS attention and his price offers relief in a week that is a bit top-heavy. I feel comfortable using him in cash games and will be counting on him in GPPs as well.
Ken Duke (DK - $6,500 & FD - $7,000)
I usually try to make my last pony a value play that might not be on everyone's radar. This week is no different and we are going all the way down the board to Ken Duke. The 49-year-old veteran isn't flashy, but I'm excited about his course history at TPC River Highlands. Duke took home the Travelers title in 2013, the win was sandwiched in between made cuts in 2012 and 2014. He then made a run in 2015 and finished tied for 10th. Duke has missed the Travelers cut by a couple of shots the last two years, but notched rounds in the 60's in each year.
Duke's game log from this season shows exactly what he is...a veteran player that is dabbling on the PGA Tour in preparation for the next phase of his career on the PGA Champions Tour. He hasn't played particularly well this year, but he has managed to stay competitive in limited action. What I really like about Duke heading into this week's tournament is the signs of life he showed two weeks ago at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Duke not only made the cut in Memphis, but carded a 66 in the second round and a 67 in the third, before running out of steam on Sunday.
As always with these value picks, I'm not advocating going nuts with Ken Duke this week. He is not a cash game play and if you are a DFS player that enters just a single lineup every week, Duke is too risky. I do like him for those that are entering multiple lineups in large-field GPPs. His bargain basement price tag gives us the ability to fit an extra stud in our lineups on a week that is top-heavy. We are searching for a made cut at this price range and Duke is capable of making the weekend. He's not a lock by any means, but will add diversity to aggressive lineups. I'd also like to give a value play shout-out to Dylan Meyer, a young man out of the University of Illinois that made his professional debut in the U.S. Open last week and finished tied for 20th. The kid has tons of game and is $6,700 on DraftKings for the Travelers Championship.
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