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Justin Carter breaks down how the Big Ten Conference Tournament can affect the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
With the NCAA Tournament looming, it's time to look at what teams from the Big 12 should/could make this year's edition and what kind of noise they could make when they get there. The big story of the season in the Big 12 was Trae Young, who took college basketball by storm and shot up the draft boards. But Oklahoma floundered in Big 12 play as the rest of the conference proved to be particularly strong this season.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi's Bracketology lists the following teams as currently being in the tournament. Lunardi isn't 100 percent correct and the Big 12 Tournament will change things, but here are the teams he's projecting with their projected seed: Kansas (1), Texas Tech (4), West Virginia (4), TCU (6), Kansas State (10), Oklahoma (10), Baylor (11), and Texas (11). Oklahoma State is not predicted to make it, but still could if they have an impressive run in the tournament. The only team that is solidly out of contention is Iowa State.
Let's take a look at each of these teams and talk a little about their strengths and weaknesses.
Editor's Note: Over the next few days, be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice. Tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts and breakdowns of each region will be released shortly.
#1 Seed: Kansas Jayhawks (24-7, 13-5 in Big 12)
Kansas is a tournament lock and a potential one seed, though a regular season ending loss to Oklahoma State (by 18!) muddies things up. Winning five straight, including a road win against Texas Tech, helps their case, but their seven losses make it tough to see them ultimately getting seeded higher than a two without winning the Big 12 tournament, unless teams like Duke and Villanova make early exits from their own conference tournaments. With two key players--Devonte' Graham and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk--shooting over 40 percent from three, Kansas always has a chance to shoot their way to victory. They've also had health on their side this season and should be considered the favorites to win the Big 12 tournament. That would make it hard to deny them a number one seed when conference strength and the quality wins that it would take to win the tournament are factored in.
#2 Seed: Texas Tech Red Raiders (23-8, 11-7 in Big 12)
Texas Tech's 4-6 record on the road can't be ignored as we head into the Big 12 tournament, and neither can their four-game losing streak. Sure, a two-point loss to Kansas doesn't hurt much, but Tech was embarrassed in the first half against West Virginia and lost to unranked Baylor and Oklahoma State. This is a bad time for the Red Raiders to be struggling, but they've pretty much locked up an at-large bid due to their overall body of work, which includes wins the first times they played Kansas and West Virginia and a non-conference win over Nevada. Tech also sports the Big 12's best scoring defense and is 15th in the nation in that category. In fact, they're the only Big 12 school in the top 50, allowing just 64.2 points per game, a number that opponents have surpassed in four of their past five games. A key for Tech if they want to make noise going forward? Getting back to playing defense at the level that's got them where they are.
Another helpful adjustment would be having their best player, Keenan Evans, healthy. A toe injury kept him out of the second half against Baylor and limited his effectiveness against Oklahoma State and Kansas. He missed Tech's loss to West Virginia. If Evans is back at full strength for either the Big 12 tournament or the NCAA tournament, Tech could end up as a bit of a sleeper. Evans is averaging 17.2 points per game this season and is a semifinalist for the Naismith award.
#3 Seed: West Virginia Mountaineers (22-9, 11-7 in Big 12)
West Virginia was blown out in their season opener against Texas A&M and then reeled off 15 consecutive wins over the likes of Virginia and Oklahoma before their winning streak was stopped by Texas Tech. They have some flaws on their resume--notably a stretch where they lost five of six, including a 93-77 loss to Iowa State--but seem to have righted the ship lately. Led by seniors Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles Jr., this Mountaneer squad is a trendy pick to win the Big 12 tournament. ESPN's Jeff Borzello cited their defensive press and Kansas's recent struggles in the conference tournament as reasons why West Virginia could come out on top. It's compelling evidence, but Kansas has already beaten Bob Huggins's team in both of their prior meetings. West Virginia's best chance of capturing the Big 12 title would be a path that includes an early tournament exit for Kansas.
#4 Seed: Kansas State Wildcats (21-10, 10-8 in Big 12)
This year's Kansas State team feels like one of those college teams that wins enough games to make it to the tournament and then loses in the first round. In their latest tournament projections, Bleacher Report has Kansas State as an 11 seed. If they end up somewhere in the 10-13 range of seeding, I'm not sure I'd pick them for the upset unless they get the perfect match-up. While Dean Wade and Barry Brown have had strong seasons for the Wildcats, they don't have the depth to consistently compete and win against good teams. It would be surprising to see them make the Big 12 tournament final--they've got to get past TCU and, more than likely, Kansas to make that happen.
#5 Seed: TCU Horned Frogs (21-10, 9-9 in Big 12)
The Horned Frogs enter the tournament as the fifth seed and will play Kansas State. A loss to Texas Tech just snapped a four-game winning streak. The Frogs are led by Vladimir Brodziansky, who averages a team-high 15.2 points per game. Desmond Bane is hitting 47.1 percent from deep, while Kenrich Williams is shooting 40.2 percent from three and also averages 9.3 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. His versatility could help TCU make an unexpected run.
#6 Seed: Baylor Bears (18-13, 8-10 in Big 12)
Here's where the cases start to get a little iffy. Baylor is currently considered a bubble team, with recent wins over Kansas and Texas Tech boosting their chances of sneaking into the tournament. Ending the regular season with a win over Kansas State would've provided another solid notch on their resume, but they fell short on the road. Their best chance of guaranteeing a spot is to play well in the conference tournament. They'll play West Virginia on Thursday night, and a win there would likely clinch them a spot in the field of 68. A loss? They may still have a chance to be one of the last teams in, but their fate would truly be in the hands of other bubble teams and, of course, the dreaded committee.
#7 Seed: Texas Longhorns (18-13, 8-10 in Big 12)
Lunardi has Texas as one of his last teams in. They'll get to play Iowa State in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament in what seems like a must-win for the Longhorns. A loss to the only "bad" team in the conference might be enough to kill their shot at an at-large bid, though beating West Virginia in their last regular season game is big for their tournament hopes. Texas is led by Mo Bamba, a name that you'll be hearing a lot about once NBA Draft season arrives, but Bamba isn't the 'Horns only weapon. Dylan Osetkowski and Kerwin Roach Jr. are good scorers. The team is without their best three point shooter, Andrew Jones, after the guard was diagnosed with leukemia in January. With Jones out, there's no one on the team shooting above 35 percent from three, and the Longhorns rank ninth in the Big 12 in three point shooting percentage. They'll need to play physical if they want to win the Big 12, especially with a match-up against Texas Tech and their tough defense looming in the second round.
#8 Seed: Oklahoma State Cowboys (18-13, 8-10 in Big 12)
Despite having the same record as Texas, the Cowboys aren't in Lunardi's bracket, falling into the "First Four Out" category. A quality win over Kansas to end the regular season gives them a good case, but it's also tough to imagine nine teams from the Big 12 making the field of 68 no matter how good the conference has been. They should be a bubble team, but a weak non-conference record--their best win over that time was what, a one point win over Florida State?--hurts them. They earned some good wins in the Big 12, but also went just 8-10 in their conference. Their resume is okay, but it will take a decent conference tournament run to solidify a case for a bid.
#9 Seed: Oklahoma Sooners (18-12, 8-10 in Big 12)
The concept that Oklahoma seems to be a consensus "definitely in" team while having a worse conference record than Baylor--and having just lost to the Bears 87-64 on Tuesday night--speaks volumes to the impact of Trae Young. Oklahoma's non-conference schedule helps too, with wins over Wichita State, USC, and Oregon, but it's hard to ignore that they've lost seven of their past eight games and are struggling at the worst time. Could they miss the tournament? Maybe! It seems, though, that the committee will put them in because of their early season body of work and because Young, the NCAA's leading scorer at 28.0 points per game, gives them a chance to go on a run. But Young has struggled from the floor lately, including an 0-for-9 night from behind the three point line in Oklahoma's loss to Texas Tech, and a 2-for-11 night from deep in their loss to Baylor. Young's cold streak and Oklahoma's losing streak make them feel like a team that isn't going to make noise in either the Big 12 tournament or the NCAA tournament. They probably deserve to be a bubble team at this point.
#10 Seed: Iowa State (13-17, 4-14 in Big 12)
I mean, for the sake of being a completist I am writing about the Cyclones. The good: They went 9-3 in non-conference, with wins over...Iowa and Northern Iowa? Get that Iowa cred, y'all! The Cyclones only path to the tournament is winning the conference tournament, which seems very, very improbable. Lindell Wigginton could help them shoot their way to a win over Texas, but that's as far as I can see them going. At this point they need Fred Hoiberg back in Ames and Georges Niang to find a time machine and show up to campus as a Freshman again.
