RADIO
A look at wide receivers to start and prioritize in DFS or re-draft leagues based on the strength of WR/CB matchups. Mark Wemken picks his top WR plays of Week 13.
Nothing is more important than matchup analyzation when it comes to fantasy football. Playing your teams’ best players on a regular basis is important, but picking apart the top matchups on a week to week basis can win you a championship, or even better, some cold hard cash in DFS.
Matchups for the wide receiver position aren’t always as black and white as they can be for other positions. Receivers need to be broken down even deeper by analyzing the potential cornerback matchup they’re going to draw. This is especially true in potential shadow coverage cases such as any time an X receiver plays against Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals. Some analytical data used here such as fantasy points allowed per route covered, and percentage of routes run on the left side, right side, and in the slot is courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
These are the top WR vs CB matchups for Week 13. Use these to set season-long lineups, as well as gain a competitive edge on FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Wide Receiver Advantages to Exploit
MIN WR Stefon Diggs vs ATL CB C.J. Goodwin
Atlanta Falcons starting cornerback Desmond Trufant has officially been ruled out with a concussion, which gives a significant boost to Vikings outside receiver Stefon Diggs. Trufant, who possesses the 10th-highest coverage grade on PFF this year, leaves behind a massive hole in the Falcons secondary that will be filled (to the best of his abilities) by C.J. Goodwin. Goodwin is a formerly undrafted wide receiver that has since converted to corner during his two-year stint with Atlanta. Diggs owners couldn't dream of a better defensive back matchup than an inexperienced corner who has only played 54 snaps in coverage this year.
This Minnesota versus Atlanta contest enters week 13 with the fourth-highest over/under (47) on the Sunday slate. This is just the second time all season a Vikings game has had an O/U this high. The first time it happened was against the New Orleans Saints, who let Diggs haul in seven passes and convert two of them for touchdowns. This will also be Diggs' third matchup versus the NFC South this season. The Vikings X receiver hauled in 15 receptions for 266 yards and four touchdowns in those first two games.
Diggs is fairly priced on both DraftKings and FanDuel given his upside. He is now a must-start in all season-long formats, as well.
DEN WR Emmanuel Sanders vs MIA CB Cordrea Tankersley
Just as Demaryius Thomas benefited from Brock Osweiler under center, Emmanuel Sanders benefits from Trevor Siemian. Sanders averages a full reception more, as well as eight targets per contest with the Northwestern product on the field this year. His only two touchdowns of the season also came off Siemian’s hand.
There’s plenty to expose here based on Sanders’ matchup with rookie cornerback Cordrea Tankersley. The young Miami defensive back plays Sanders’ side almost exclusively and has allowed a 67 percent catch rate in coverage this year.
Sanders has likely been on fantasy managers’ benches since he returned from his ankle injury. Week 13 is a great opportunity to fire him up as a flex or even a WR2. Finally, Sanders is a great buy low on both DraftKings and FanDuel, drawing $4,900 and $6,500 price tags, respectively.
JAX WR Marqise Lee vs IND CB Kenny Moore II
Marqise Lee, as well as the rest of the Jacksonville wide receivers, are in great positions for Week 13. Cornerback Rashaan Melvin, who was quietly emerging as a top shutdown corner over the past several weeks, is out indefinitely with a hand injury. Any potential chances at drawing shadow coverage have been thrown out the window for Lee against this 31st-ranked passing defense.
Undrafted rookie Kenny Moore is the most likely candidate to cover Lee in Melvin’s absence. Moore has been a solid matchup to pick on this season, allowing 1.62 receiving yards per route covered this year (10th most among starting defensive backs).
Lee gets even more enticing upon analysis of his home/road splits this season. He averages over 10 targets and almost 16 PPR fantasy points at home in 2017. He averages just 4.7 targets and 5.6 fantasy points on the road this year. Lock Lee in as a cash game darling in DFS this week.
NO WR Ted Ginn Jr. vs CAR CB Daryl Worley
Both Ted Ginn and X receiver Michael Thomas are great options in this game, but the latter should already be locked as a starter in season-long contests. Ginn Jr. gets his second shot at a revenge game versus his former team, and he will draw coverage from Daryl Worley. Normally, Ginn would see James Bradberry based on where Ginn runs his routes and where Bradberry typically covers. The Panthers have now used Bradberry to shadow the opposing X receiver four times since week 4, and they’re projected to do it again this week with Thomas.
Ginn only saw three targets in his first meeting against his former team. He did make the most of them, however, taking them for 44 yards and a touchdown. Since that Week 3 matchup, Ginn has been targeted at least five times in four contests, including an 11 target game in Week 12.
In regards to picking on the matchup, Worley is PFFs 20th-lowest graded cornerback this season with a player grade of just 45.6. In addition, Ginn is averaging the 10th-most receiving yards per route run this year (2.09). Ginn is worthy of flex consideration in season-long and should definitely be considered for GPP lineups in DFS thanks to his reasonable price points across the board.
