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Third Base: Points Leagues Rankings and Tiers

Welcome to this series of analyzing our site’s points league rankings, compiled by myself and Kyle Bishop. We’re good people, you should get to know us. Today we're taking a look at our tiered third base rankings for points leagues.

Points leagues abide by different rules, with walks and strikeouts usually being of notable importance compared to typical 5x5 leagues. It’s not as simple as that of course, but we’ll go off of ESPN’s default model. For hitters, it's one point per Total Base, Run Scored, Stolen Base, Walk and RBI, with a point deducted per strikeout. We’ve covered catchers, first and second base and even shortstop! Now, let’s head to the hot corner.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

2017 Fantasy Baseball Points Rankings: Third Base (February)

Overall
Ranking
Tier Player Name Position Nick Kyle Composite
Ranking
4 1 Kris Bryant 3B/OF 5 3 4
7 1 Nolan Arenado 3B 6 6 6
10 1 Manny Machado SS/3B 11 9 10
19 1 Josh Donaldson 3B 19 17 18
42 2 Jonathan Villar SS/3B 50 33 41.5
45 2 Kyle Seager 3B 56 38 47
46 2 Adrian Beltre 3B 59 39 49
58 2 Matt Carpenter 1B/2B/3B 61 52 56.5
74 3 Justin Turner 3B 87 67 77
76 3 Alex Bregman 3B 72 85 78.5
77 3 Anthony Rendon 3B 71 87 79
87 3 Evan Longoria 3B 105 72 88.5
88 3 Todd Frazier 3B 89 88 88.5
93 3 Jake Lamb 3B 110 73 91.5
107 3 Jose Ramirez 3B/OF 116 104 110
140 4 Miguel Sano 3B 181 99 140
158 4 Mike Moustakas 3B 139 176 157.5
181 4 Jung-ho Kang 3B 212 151 181.5
188 4 Ryon Healy 3B 216 163 189.5
197 4 Maikel Franco 3B 220 182 201
229 5 Jose Reyes SS/3B 242 220 231
245 5 Eduardo Nunez SS/3B 292 205 248.5
249 5 Yangervis Solarte 3B 276 227 251.5
252 5 Eugenio Suarez 3B 278 230 254
253 5 Nick Castellanos 3B 287 223 255
263 5 Hernan Perez 3B/OF 301 226 263.5
278 5 Jedd Gyorko 2B/3B 286 277 281.5
313 6 Jhonny Peralta 3B 311 324 317.5
324 6 Danny Valencia 1B/3B/OF 358 297 327.5
327 6 Yulieski Gurriel 3B 313 352 332.5
338 6 Martin Prado 3B 328 350 339
357 6 Yunel Escobar 3B 333 388 360.5
363 6 David Wright 3B 339 392 365.5
382 6 Adonis Garcia 3B 355 406 380.5
393 6 Pablo Sandoval 3B 326 462 394
396 6 Matt Duffy SS/3B 366 423 394.5
397 6 Brandon Drury 3B/OF 409 383 396
399 6 Travis Shaw 1B/3B 386 411 398.5
401 6 Wilmer Flores 1B/3B 414 395 404.5
417 6 Jurickson Profar SS/3B 415 416 415.5
426 6 Chase Headley 3B 349 498 423.5
439 6 David Freese 1B/3B 390 496 443
447 7 Luis Valbuena 1B/3B 488 412 450
456 7 Yoan Moncada 3B 452 458 455
479 7 Brock Holt 3B/OF 456 492 474
481 7 Conor Gillaspie 3B 466 487 476.5
486 7 Greg Garcia 2B/SS/3B 498 467 482.5

 

Third Base Points Rankings Analysis: The Tiers

Tier One

There’s a new “Core Four” in the game, and it’s the hot corner’s upper crust. Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson are all capable of being the backbone of anyone’s team. The first three names are youngsters who are still working their way up the fantasy food chain (which is terrifying in an awesome way) while Donaldson, who is currently battling a calf injury but should be fine, is still well within his prime at age-31. He should be able to turn in 35 homers with 100+ runs and RBIs with a plus average, an OBP around the high .300s and a modest 17% strikeout rate. He’s also 21-for-22 on steal attempts over the last three seasons, with at least 668 plate appearances in each of his last four seasons. Even if you miss on the big three, you’re happy with all of them.

Tier Two

The second tier yields another fearsome foursome, as Jonathan Villar, Kyle Seager, Adrian Beltre and Matt Carpenter can all provide steady stats without being much of a risk, though Villar clearly stands alone as the truly unproven commodity. It’s not that anyone really suspects he’ll flop, rather that his range of outcomes is quite wide – especially compared to the other three here. Seager, Beltre and Carpenter all noted for their consistency, even Carp’s power is now viewed as pretty bankable. They also all have strikeout rates that are roughly 5% greater than their walk rates. Compare that to Villar, who is the most flashy due to his steals and non-zero power, but that 25.6% K-rate is rough (11.6% BB rate).

Tier Three

You can either go with a veteran in Just Turner, Evan Longoria or Todd Frazier, or go with a youngster in Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendon, Jake Lamb or Jose Ramirez. We’ll highlight Lamb, who has 30-homer pop in Arizona’s power-happy atmosphere. The hurdle is a strikeout rate like Villar’s around the 26% mark (25.9%) that could worsen if he’s truly allowed to regularly start against southpaws. This provides him with a higher ceiling due to the counting stats, of course, but his owners may want to check the matchups until he proves he can handle portsiders.

Tier Four

Miguel Sano’s strikeouts are just utterly terrifying to me. I know the power is real but oh man, last season’s second half has me shook. He had his walk rate fall from 14% to 7.6% while the strikeouts jumped from 33.1% to 39.1%. 39.1%. Coming in second was Randal Grichuk’s 36.8% and then Danny Espinosa’s 33.8%. Inspiring stuff. Mike Moustakas and Ryon Healy are the great values here, especially Moose considering his knee has had ample time to heal and regular playing time will be his. Healy might get juggled a little too much to be a regular starter with so many platoon parts rotating in Oakland, but should prove to be a solid resource. Healy has a history of high BABIPs in the Minors as well as an ISO that should sit in the .180-.200 range, though his walk rate will likely remain around 4%.

Tier Five

The latest news on David Wright strongly points to Jose Reyes getting regular work for the Mets in 2017, making him a nice buy in points leagues with double-digit pop and 20+ steal capabilities. Nick Castellanos is a popular late-round pick considering his breakout last season that was cut short by a hand injury, and thus put a damper on his overall stats and leave him buried a bit on draft boards.

The Rest of the Field

There could be some intriguing types left late in drafts like Yulieski Gurriel, Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Drury. Even Travis Shaw now gets to swing away in hitter-friendly Miller Park. Gurriel recently admitted to being worn down by the end of the 2016 MLB season considering the additional rigor involved on a daily basis compared to the Cuban leagues. Sandoval, whose strikeout rate normally sits around 13.5%, is on his last legs but has been working hard to show he can regain his form from the San Francisco days.




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SP
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