Our review of the 2016 fantasy baseball season continues with a look at some of the breakout performances at third base.

Breakout Third Basemen in 2016

Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks

Last winter, the RotoBaller staff compiled its 2016 rankings. I had Lamb 16^th among third basemen, higher than any of the half-dozen colleagues who participated. His solid minor league performances were backed up by some impressive MLB peripherals, even if the results to that point had been underwhelming. Ultimately, I pegged him as a solid CI option in deeper mixers, while his ADP sat in the 400s. Lamb proceeded to destroy everyone’s expectations, hitting .302/.380/.635 with 21 homers through July 17. Unfortunately, he suffered a hand injury and saw his production crater.

There’s no doubt that Lamb was adversely affected by the injury. A simple glance at his heat maps before and after speaks volumes:

You can see that Lamb had a lot more trouble making contact with pitches up and in after the injury, which makes sense. A hand bruise would likely compromise his bat speed, leaving him unable to turn on pitches on the inner half. Sure enough, he went from pulling the ball over half of the time to pulling it a third of the time.

It’s worth pointing out that Lamb was almost certainly due for some regression anyway. He ran a 28.8 HR/FB% before the injury, which would have tied him with Ryan Braun for the league lead in that category. Obviously, however, his health was a key factor in his stumble down the stretch. Despite that second-half swoon, he still finished eighth among third basemen per FantasyPros’ Player Rater. Owners can reasonably expect a similar performance in 2017.

Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers

As with Lamb, I was fairly bullish on Castellanos compared to the masses based on his pedigree, minor league numbers, and encouraging batted ball data in the majors. Castellanos likewise fell victim to an injury that suppressed his overall value. Unlike Lamb, this came mostly in the form of missed time, rather than subpar performance as a result of playing through pain. Again, though, it’s fair to ask whether Castellanos could have kept up the pace he set in the first three months.

Despite a steady upward trend in his production since breaking into the big leagues, Castellanos has yet to improve on his plate approach or contact issues. If he’d made enough plate appearances, Castellanos would have tied for the 11^th-worst swinging strike rate and 19^th-worst contact rate among qualified hitters. You can make that profile work, as evidenced by some of the company on those lists – guys like Carlos Gonzalez, Freddie Freeman, and Adam Jones posted similar numbers. It’s tough to hit for a high average with that much swing and miss in your game, though, even when you hit the ball as hard as Castellanos does. He’s also more of a line drive/gap hitter than a slugger – his 18 homers were a career best, including the minors.

Castellanos will be entering his age-25 season, so there’s still room for growth here. It may be too much to hope for him to maintain the linear progression path he’s been on to this point, however.

Ryon Healy, Oakland Athletics

Raise your hand if you knew who this guy was before the season started! (Put your hand down, liar.)

Healy was lightly regarded as a minor leaguer, barely mentioned by prospect mavens when they reviewed the A’s decidedly unspectacular farm system. It wasn’t tough to see why. Despite always being on the old side for his level, Healy hadn’t distinguished himself in his first three minor league seasons. In 2016, however, he began raking at Double-A, and didn’t stop even as he was promoted to the majors midseason.  Healy totaled 27 homers – half of them in the majors – after hitting 32 in the three prior seasons combined.

When this kind of surge occurs, generally what you want to see is a tangible adjustment in mechanics or approach on the part of the hitter. We’ve got that here, as Healy lowered his hands in an effort to flatten out his swing path and load to a lower position. If that sounds familiar, it’s because that’s essentially the same adjustment made by reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson a few years ago:

Healy’s got a long way to go before he’s in the same conversation as Donaldson, obviously, but he’s worth considering as a late-round flier in most mixed leagues.