August 25, 2016

Jason Bales analyzes the 1st round from the recent Rotoballer Writers Dynasty Fantasy Football League

Last week, 12 RotoBaller writers came together to do a live dynasty league startup on the internet.

This article is the first in a series of articles on RotoBaller that will analyze the results of the draft to give readers a look into current dynasty values, and discuss the best and worst values in the draft.

For full draft results, click here.

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Dynasty Draft Analysis - Round One

Best Pick

Odell Beckham Jr., 1.03 Overall (@Supermt)

 Odell Beckham Jr. is generally the first player off of the draft board, but that was not the case in this draft, his name wasn't off the board  until pick number three, surrendering the first and second spot to Antontio Brown and Julio Jones.

Beckham Jr. has a ton of upside, especially considering his age in a dynasty league. At pick number three, OBJ is an absolute steal. Antontio Brown and Julio Jones are very talented wide receivers, but OBJ is in a great offense with a ton of upside and a few more years left than the prior two.

Worst Pick

Julio Jones, 1.02 Overall (@FFCatalyst)

This selection was slightly confusing. Julio Jones is undoubtedly a top wide receiver, and he is going to dominate opposing defenses this season, but he should have gone one pick later. In the first round, that is actually a big deal.

OBJ has four years on him, and in a dynasty league, age is very important. The Giants’ star wide receiver simply has more upside as far as his entire career his concerned at this point. Jones can definitely contribute to a championship run for the next four or five years, but Beckham Jr. will be hitting his prime around that time.

Riskiest Pick

Mike Evans, 1.08 Overall (@NPowellFF)

Mike Evans is primed to have a fantastic 2016 season, but he disappointed in 2015 with only three touchdowns on 74 receptions. Since entering the league, he has around 2,200 yards and 15 touchdowns, proving that he can be a very consistent number two wide receiver, as far as fantasy is concerned. But he has the potential to compete with players like Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and OBJ, or ‘the top three.’

Luckily for Evans’ owners, he lost 15 pounds this offseason in an effort to run faster and stay on the field more. He looked sluggish at times in 2015, so this is great news. It will be interesting to see if he can start finding the end zone, like he did in 2014, again.

Biggest Upside Pick

Lamar Miller, 1.12 Overall (@pfunk00)

Lamar Miller could lead the league in rushing this season. Multiple scouts have mentioned how great he looks in camp, and the Houston Texans are going to rely heavily on him, something that the Miami Dolphins did not do. Miller only ran for over 1,000 yards in one season in his four-year career, but he never had a season with less than four yards per carry.

He catches a lot of balls out of the backfield, and his pass blocking has improved, according to Bill O’Brien. With the last pick of the first round, he presents some of the highest upside in the draft overall. Do not underestimate Miller this season. He will be a household name before the end of the season; not just in Houston, but around the United States.

General Analysis

The first round actually did not go according to plan. With Odell Beckham Jr. falling to the third overall pick, the league was most likely shocked. Granted, the ‘top three’ did go top three overall. Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and OBJ were off the board as fast as possible. That much was normal. Todd Gurley at pick four is not all that surprising, especially in a dynasty league after the breakout rookie season he had. DeAndre Hopkins could have gone at pick four, so the Houston wide-out going at pick five was expected, as well.

David Johnson jumped all the way up to pick six, leaving Allen Robinson to fall to pick seven. Johnson should probably have been a closer to the end of the round selection, but with his age and upside, it isn’t all that surprising to see him go that high. Mike Evans left the draft board before Le’Veon Bell, which is semi-surprising. Bell is suspended, but this is a dynasty league, and he is likely, currently, the best running back in the league. The end of the round included some very high upside selections. Rob Gronkowski went a little bit too high, as he is starting to age and Jordan Reed, a tight end with similar upside, went in round four. Drafting one of the two latter running backs – Ezekiel Elliott or Lamar Miller – has more benefits in the long run, but Gronkowski will provide tight end one statistics for multiple years in a row yet.

Overall, aside from Odell Beckham Jr. dropping to pick number three, the first round of this dynasty draft was not all that surprising. While not in the expected order, all of the players that should have went in the first round, went in the first round.

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