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RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in a pitcher's strikeout rate over the last thirty days. The tool is for Premium subscribers only, and can be found here.
Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.
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K-Rate Risers
By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.
This tool provides a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, or seeing their fantasy value quickly declining. This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher. Because this tool is refreshed daily, the numbers in this article may be slightly off from the tool. Now, let's get rowdy.
Dylan Bundy, BAL
Season K-Rate: 23%, Last 30 K-Rate: 30%
If you’re reading this now and Bundy is still available in your league, stop reading. Go get him then come back. Go ahead, I’ll wait…. Got him? Good, Now I will continue.
The former fourth overall pick and top prospect in all of baseball missed several seasons due to injury before getting to this point. It all started Tommy John surgery back in 2013, then he had shoulder complications that led him to miss basically all of 2014. This year started with Bundy throwing in a middle relief role for the Orioles, obviously not where they envisioned him being when they drafted him. At the beginning of the yea,r his fastball sat in the low 90s, much different than the high-90s pitcher we saw in the minors.
Then something changed. Since the beginning of June, Bundy has an ERA of 2.13, with a K/BB ratio of 46/9(!). Two things that jump out when looking at Bundy over this time period. He is getting ahead of hitters. Since June 9th, he is getting to two strikes in the count very quickly, a trait which is huge to a starter's success. In terms of percentage of pitches thrown with two strikes, he is up there with the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, and Max Scherzer according to baseballsavant. Now that isn’t saying he is as good of a pitcher as those pitchers, but getting ahead in the count is clearly a positive trait to have for a starter.
His fastball velocity and movement have risen too. When the year began, Bundy was close to 92mph on his best pitch. His fastball velocity is now sitting around 95 more consistently, complete with some rising action. Look at these charts from his game on April 12 against Boston versus his start last Tuesday, August 2nd against the Rangers.
From April 12th:
From August 2nd:
From what you can see, he is getting more vertical movement on his fastball, and he is able to reach back and get that heater over 95mph when he has to. Since June 9, Bundy has a 10.95 strikeouts per nine rate, opponents have hit .188 off of him, and he has a WHIP of 0.93. His swinging strike rate has gone from 8.9% pre-June, to 12.2% since. Will he keep pitching THIS well the rest of the season? Probably not. However, the former fourth overall pick finally looks like he is healthy and putting it all together for the Orioles. They desperately needed another starter, and Bundy is the answer.
Verdict: Buy
Marcus Stroman, TOR
Season K-Rate: 19%, Last 30 K-Rate: 29%
After tearing his ACL and missing most of the 2015 season, many of us had hopes Marcus Stroman would return to his 2014 form and provide solid upside in drafts. Stroman hasn’t performed this season the way many of us envisioned, but those who have stuck around with him this long are beginning to be rewarded. Since the beginning of July, Stroman has been pitching like the high-upside arm we all wanted.
His stats before July are just awful: 5.33 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 71/31 (2.3) K/BB. Since July 1st, he has a 3.29 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 43/5 (8.6) K/BB. What has sparked such a radical change in his numbers? One indication is that his pitches are getting more movement on them. His cut-fastball has gained an impressive amount of horizontal movement since July 1, and his changeup has also seen a nice bump. Carlos Correa got to witness this nasty changeup movement first hand during his last start.
This pitch was featured on pitcherlist as one of the nastiest pitches of the day. It was never a question with Stroman whether his stuff had elite potential, it just took him a little while to get back into form.
Another indicator is the amount of hard contact he was generating. During the first three months of the season, his soft/hard contact rates were 16.4%/33.6%. He has been able to reduce his hard contact rate by an impressive 7% while increasing his soft contact. Those numbers from July 1 on are at 19.5%/26.6%. Currently, his FIP/xFIP sit at 3.81/3.41, compared his inflated ERA of 4.74. If you can buy low on Stroman from their owner, do it in a heartbeat. Stroman is back, and will be a solid contributor the rest of the season.
Verdict: Buy
K-Rate Fallers
Michael Fulmer, DET
Season K-Rate: 21%, Last 30 K-Rate: 15%
This season, teams seem to be experimenting a bit with young pitching and innings limits. In the past, once a pitcher tossed about 20% more innings than they had the prior year, the team would no longer let the pitcher throw to help avoid long term injury. However, the science behind this hasn’t been conclusive, and pitchers seem to get hurt based more off of them pitching when there is already something wrong rather than throwing more innings if they feel fine. Two pitchers this season that will keep pitching past their innings limits are Aaron Sanchez and Michael Fulmer. Fulmer has seen his strikeout numbers dip lately, but is it time to jump ship?
Fulmer threw 124.2 innings last season, and is at 104 after his last start this season. Manager Brad Ausmus earlier in the season predicted a 20-25% innings boost, putting him at a limit of about 150 this season. Recently, Ausmus came out and said Fulmer can keep throwing the rest of the season if the Tigers are “smart about it.” Fulmer is about six starts away from hitting the 150 limit, but he has only thrown exactly 1,600 pitches to this point. In 2014, rookies Yordano Ventura and Jake Odorizzi threw 2,985 and 3,028 pitches respectively. Even if Fulmer throws 100 pitches in his remaining nine or 10 starts (something he has only done four times in his 17 starts) he will still end up well short of those numbers. Neither of those pitchers has suffered any kind of major injury.
Fulmer has only had three starts this season with seven or more strikeouts. Two of those starts came after June 1st. His stats since June 1 include a 1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a 6.69 K/9 rate. Fulmer hasn’t been a big strikeout guy this season, he pitches to contact and gets a ton of ground ball outs. It has worked well for him all of this season, and he doesn’t seem to be showing any signs of slowing down. Fulmer may have a start skipped, or the Tigers may utilize a six-man rotation at some point later in the year. Buy Fulmer from an owner fearing his inevitable shutdown, and watch as he continues to pitch well the rest of the season.
Verdict: Buy
Jeremy Hellickson, PHI
Season K-Rate: 20%, Last 30 K-Rate: 15%
Jeremy Hellickson has had an effective first year for the Phillies, posting a 3.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP so far this season. He was a popular candidate to move at the trade deadline, but the Phillies opted to hold onto him for his potential impact on their present and future. Hellickson is eligible for free agency after this season, so the Phillies will need to decide if they want to extend a qualifying offer the 29-year old pitcher or trade him for a top prospect, which was their asking price at the deadline. His K-Rate has seen a decline lately, is it a sign of things to come?
Hellickson has never been a high-strikeout guy, in fact his K/9 rate of 7.30 is higher than his career average of 6.78. His ERA during a tough June was at 5.40. In July he pitcked things back up and posted a 2.39 ERA. Now in August, his ERA is at 4.05. His BABIP over the past three seasons is .306, and it currently sits at .273. His FIP/xFIP are 4.15/3.97, which means his 3.72 ERA is likely still to rise a bit. He has done a better job at limiting hard contact this season (2015: 34.4%, 2016: 26.4%) which has likely been a big indicator of his improved performance.
Hellickson has pitched about this well all season, and the rest of the year will continue to be a low strikeout pitcher facing ups and downs. He is someone to deploy in good matchups, and to sit for more difficult ones. His upcoming schedule sees a plus matchup against the Padres, but then he will run into trouble with COL, LAA, and @CWS. If you can sell him and acquire a pitcher with solid value, make the move. Hellickson is solid but unspectacular.
Verdict: Hold/Sell
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