RADIO
As the second half of the MLB season begins, fantasy baseball owners are looking to make the right moves to strengthen their squads for the stretch run. The procurement of reliable home run producers is a fast way to fantasy victory, but is not without difficulty. Power hitters are rarely overlooked, and often overpriced. The RotoBaller Home Run/Power Surgers and Fallers tool allows users to see what players are beginning a power surge, and which players are tailing off.
Power Surgers
Max Kepler Power Average Difference +11.3% Status: Buy in general, not specifically for power
Twins rookie outfielder Max Kepler has been one of the only bright spots in Minneapolis this season. Kepler has eight home runs, 12 doubles, and 33 RBI in 168 plate appearances in 2016, and has solidified his spot as the starting right fielder. He has hit seven dingers in his last 21 games, and five in the last 14 days. Now THAT is a power surge!
The future for the Twins fifth-rated prospect is clearly bright, but fantasy owners looking for a big-time home run hitter should be wary. Kepler is elevating the ball nicely right now, but his 18% HR/FB for the season is not sustainable given his history. He has a grand total of 35 home runs in 2103 minor league plate appearances, and has not had double-digit home runs in a season since rookie ball in 2012. His positive plate discipline means his average should come up, and he will steal some bases. However, owners in need of home runs should not count on Kepler keeping up the power display.
Derek Norris Power Average Difference +18.3% Status: Buy
The fantasy market for catchers has been even more miserable than usual this season. Most of the players available on the wire or for trade are under-performing veterans, or young catchers with a bat that is not ready for primetime. Early in the season, Derek Norris was one of those under-performers, but he has quietly got on a roll for the Padres. The fifth-year backstop is tied for fifth in home runs among catchers, and is already two homers away from eclipsing his career-high of 14, set last season.
The success that Norris has enjoyed recently has a rather obvious cause-he is hitting the ball really hard. He has made hard contact on 38% of batted balls this season, a career high. In the last 30 days, Norris has hit fly balls in 46% of batted balls, and has made hard contact 36% of the time, resulting in a 26% HR/FB rate over that span. Norris still strikes out way too much and has been BABIP'd to death, producing an ugly .212 batting average. Owners looking for home runs from the catcher position, however, should add Norris, as his power outlook is comparable or better than higher-owned catchers like Russell Martin or Matt Wieters.
Power Fallers
Yasiel Puig Power Average Difference -8.7% Status: Sell
Where do you begin with Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig? Every game that passes, the superstar fantasy seasons of 2013 and 2014 fade further into the past, leaving more questions than answers. With injury issues and trade rumors swirling, owners have every reason to be confused on what to do with such a fantasy asset.
Puig has never been a prototypical home run hitter in his Dodger career, and was never supposed to be. The version of Puig that was so valuable two and three seasons ago combined above-average pop with superior on-base skills, while mixing in the occasional stolen base. Problems with hamstring injuries rendered him ineffective in 2015, and sent him back to the disabled list for three weeks in June.
Since returning to the lineup on June 21, there has been improvement in his metrics, but not anything that points to a power surge. Puig is hitting .333 with an .893 OPS in that time, but has a weak 16% fly ball percentage, resulting in just two homers. His hard contact percentage is still down from '13 and '14, while his soft contact percentage is up. For owners in need of home runs, Puig is providing very little at this time, and may still not be 100% healthy. As drastic as it sounds, Puig can be cut in shallow leagues where all trade possibilities have been exhausted.
