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Poetry in Motion: The Speed of Jonathan Villar

Jonathan Villar is your National League steals leader. No, really. Villar has 15 SB in 21 attempts and shows no sign of slowing down--literally. Stolen bases are a highly coveted asset in fantasy baseball, as only a precious few players are capable of putting up 30+ SB in a given year. But speed alone won't win a fantasy league. Villar has always possessed speed, but it's still somewhat surprising when you consider that he is only three away from matching his career-high in only 44 games. Skeptics view him as another Billy Hamilton - great for steals, but mediocre to poor in every other category. Hamilton's .226/.274/.289 line from 2015, along with a complete absence of power, would have him demoted if it weren't for his blazing speed. Is Villar the same type of player who will help you in one category but hurt you everywhere else? Let's take a look.

Villar is basically stealing one base for every three games played, which would project to 54 if he played every game. He won't play every game of course, but if he can reach 50 SB he will be in elite company. Only five players have surpassed 50 steals in the last five seasons. The only repeat players on that list are the aforementioned Hamilton and PED-suspended Dee Gordon. I don't think Michael Bourn is suddenly returning to fantasy relevance any time soon, so Villar's SB crown chances are looking pretty good. Here's a clean steal against a semi-decent pitcher on the mound, Jake Arrieta.

Villar steals second

The value of speed can manifest itself in other ways too. Speedy runners can score on plays from first or second base that others can't. Villar currently has 19 R and is on pace to fall between 70-80 at year's end. Certainly not elite, but perfectly acceptable for a starting shortstop. Here's a play where someone like Villar can put pressure on both pitcher and catcher, manufacturing a run for an offense that will take what it can get.

Villar scores on wild pitch

What about the bat? You can't score or steal if you don't reach base, after all. Would you take a .295 AVG and a .392 OBP? Most teams would love to have a lead-off man with those numbers. Villar has seen nearly equal time hitting first or second in the order, but is more efficient in the top spot. He has a line of .315/.400/.411 when batting first, compared to .245/.344/.396 when batting second. What is more encouraging from a fantasy standpoint is that he is improving as the year goes on, hitting .333 in May with 12 RBI. In limited time with the Astros last season, Villar hit .284, so it isn't unrealistic to expect him to maintain his current average. Don't expect many home run highlights from Villar, but he is more than just a slap hitter. Villar has crushed 14 doubles this year, including 10 in the last 22 games. Points league owners may benefit from the occasional extra base.

Villar doubles off wall

His main flaw right now is plate discipline. His 25% K rate is troublesome, but especially for a table setter. A 1.92 K/BB indicates a need to take more walks as well. He is hitting the ball well enough to keep a healthy on-base percentage, but with a .404 BABIP due for regression, he may need to draw more walks to keep his current value.

Villar strikes out looking

We're here to talk about speed though, right? Villar has been incredibly aggressive on the basepaths, as indicated earlier. He has been caught six times, which is also tied for the league lead with rookie Mallex Smith. It is rare that fantasy owners are penalized in any way for this, however, so the more he runs the better.

Villar swipes third

Ultimately, Jonathan Villar is looking like the type of player that could carry great value throughout the 2016 season. He may win the stolen base crown, but there's more to him than speed alone. He currently is on pace for approximately 70 runs, 55 RBI and 50 steals. That kind of production in the middle of the infield warrants a starting spot in any league, no matter the format. The fact that his Fleaflicker ownership of 18% still warrants a write-up in my weekly NL-only waiver wire article is unfathomable. The time for sleeping on Villar is over. If he is available in your league, grab him now. He's moving fast, after all.

 

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