I like to look at the outfield as the department store of fantasy baseball. Sluggers, speedsters, batting average and all around players are all available in abundance. Most leagues compensate for this by starting five OFers per team, but even then the OF-5 is better than a lot of shortstops or catchers.

While you don't want to field five lesser outfielders, the position isn't scarce either. If you consistently take the best guy available, you'll likely have enough outfielders to fill all of the slots - and maybe a utility slot as well!

Without further ado, lets take a closer look at a few outfield options.

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Yoenis Cespedes (OF, NYM, ADP: 44.4)

Cespedes has long been a competent fantasy slugger, but his .291/.328/.542 triple slash line with 35 HR and seven swipes put him on a whole new level in 2015. Based on his current ADP, fantasy owners believe in the elite production moving forward.

I'm skeptical. Cespedes posted a HR/FB of 18.6% last season, the highest mark of his career. For comparison, he has averaged 14.1% over his career. This HR/FB spike masked a precipitous decline in Cespedes's FB%, which reached 48% in 2014 only to regress to 37.9% last season. 37.9% is still a strong showing, but legitimate power breakouts generally do not involve 10% fewer fly balls.

Cespedes also hadn't posted a plus batting average since his rookie year. He received a number of favorable bounces in 2015, as both his line drives (.730 BABIP) and fly balls (.156) beat his career BABIPs of .705 and .132, respectively. In general, this is probably not sustainable.

The outfielder's LD% likely had more to do with the plus average, however. While Cespedes's 20.4% LD% seems sustainable at first glance, his career rate is significantly lower at 18.8%. The MLB average is 20.9%, but Cespedes has three years of data that suggest he cannot sustain that rate. I need to see it again before I throw out three years of data.

Cespedes's wild swinging tendencies also hurt his average while cratering his value in OBP leagues. His O-Swing% has increased in each of Cespedes's four MLB campaigns, reaching 39.1% last season. This is troubling not only for the obvious effects on his BB% (just 4.9% last year), but also because it is still trending in the wrong direction.

A below average 10.6% SwStr% and 78.3% Contact% do not support an average K% of 20.9%, so more strikeouts could be coming in 2016. The fact that he avoided them last year is due to a career best 67.7% O-Contact%, but only time will tell if the change is sustainable. It may not even be desirable, as pitches hit outside of the hitting zone typically favor the pitcher.

Cespedes is currently slotted in to an everyday CF role for 2016, despite a poor performance there in a limited 2015 sample (-4 DRS in 312 innings). This could lead to him losing PAs late in games to a defensive replacement such as Juan Lagares, or potentially a clubhouse crisis if he is forced to steal starts from Curtis Granderson or Michael Conforto.

Cespedes stole a few bags last year, but the five CS he also compiled should limit any expectations of speed production. He is playing for a contract thanks to an opt out clause after the season, but it is difficult to imagine his besting a career year. He likely stays with the Mets for more money than he's worth, a fate that can still be avoided by your fantasy team.

Verdict: Chump

 

Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN, ADP: 106.4)

Hamilton is easily one of the most polarizing options in fantasy baseball history. Some point to his dismal 2015 batting line of .226/.274/.289, and lack of minor league dominance, and see a bat that will never amount to anything. Others see 57 steals in just 454 PAs, and love the idea of locking up an entire category with one player. I figured he merited a closer examination.

Hamilton is very fast - no one doubts this fact. He twice stole over a hundred bases in the minors, so his 2014 success rate of 71% (56 for 79) was a bit disappointing. Hamilton fixed this problem in a big way last season, going 57 for 65 for a sparkling success rate of roughly 88%. Prior to last year, Hamilton's detractors could point to his poor success rate as evidence that he was not a MLB talent. Now, that argument is moot.

Only one question remains - can he hit? Last year's batting line was pathetic, but an overall BABIP of .264 may have had a lot to do with it. More specifically, a .233 BABIP on grounders seems way too low for a player with Hamilton's wheels. Speed doesn't automatically lead to ground ball base hits, but they should be expected considering his career .272 BABIP on grounders. More infield singles should come this year.

Hamilton was also hurt by his liner production last season. His line drives posted a BABIP of just .525, well short of both his own career average (.625) and the overall MLB average last year (.678). There is nowhere for this number to go besides up. This fact, combined with a slightly below average LD% (19.6% vs. 20.7% career), makes at least a return to a .250ish average likely.

Critics of Hamilton's batted ball profile point to a GB% (42.6%) that is not quite high enough to take advantage of his wheels. These same critics fail to point out that Hamilton significantly improved his IFFB% last season, cutting it from 13.2% in 2014 to 5.9% last year. This represents a step in the right direction, especially if Hamilton's stated understanding that he needs to hit more grounders amounts to anything.

Hamilton's plate discipline numbers suggest that he is not completely overwhelmed by MLB pitching. His 28% O-Swing% is actually very good, allowing Hamilton to draw walks at a league average rate despite most pitchers feeling they can challenge him with impunity. His SwStr% (7.2%) and Contact% (83.6%) are also better than the MLB average, and trending in the right direction to boot. If anything, Hamilton's 72.5% O-Contact% may be a little too high. Overall, he seems to have at least a clue in the batter's box.

There is also a weird narrative going around that the Reds may bench their super speedster if he starts out poorly. I see very little evidence for this. While the Reds should be rebuilding for a few years, their preference for MLB ready prospects with little upside over higher upside, longer term projects in the Todd Frazier deal suggests that the team thinks their rebuild will be quick. Considering the rest of the roster, 26 year old Hamilton has to be a factor in their internal calculus to reach that conclusion. He'll have some rope.

Hamilton will once again start the year out of the leadoff slot, offering runs upside in addition to dynamic speed. Even if he reverts to 2014 production, he should have no problem swiping 70 bags with his new success rate. Should he get better, or even luck into a few extra stolen base opportunities, the upside is tantalizing. Ninety or more steals are within the range of possible outcomes. That's worth a pick outside the top 100.

Verdict: Champ

 

Brett Gardner (OF, NYY, ADP: 138)

Gardner no longer steals 40 bases per season, but he still pilfered 20 to go with a .259/.343/.399 triple slash line and 16 dingers last year. He is always at the top of the powerful Yankees batting order, so he scores runs in bunches. Gardner contributes plus production in four of five roto categories, yet his ADP is 138. Why?

Gardner can still run, as evidenced by his strong 80% success rate in stolen bases last season. He also continues to run favorable BABIPs on ground balls, with a .263 mark last year. His overall BABIP of .312 was slightly below his career .319 average. The speed part of his game appears very sustainable.

His power seemed out of character going in to last season, but back to back seasons with upper-teens homers and exactly an 11% HR/FB suggest that he has learned league average power, at least in favorable Yankee Stadium (12 of 16 homers came at home). He lost some of his FB% last season (36.7% in 2014 to 33.9%), but it mostly manifested in a lower IFFB% (10.3% to 6.2%). 15 homers, 20 steals, a bunch of runs and a batting average that won't kill you should be treated as roto gold, not a draft day afterthought.

Fantasy owners in OBP formats can take advantage of Gardner's elite plate discipline. His 23.3% O-Swing% last year was outstanding. His SwStr% rose to a career worst 7%, but it was fueled mostly by a decline in O-Contact% (73.9% in 2014, 66.2% last year). By contrast, his 89.3% Z-Contact% (down slightly from 92.8%) indicated that he remains capable of handling anything in the zone. Contact outside of the zone is usually not ideal, and regardless a 7% SwStr% is still very strong.

The only reason for Gardner's under appreciation that I can think of is the arrival of Aaron Hicks, a young player with a similar skill set. However, Hicks can play all three outfield slots or DH. Jacoby Ellsbury has a massive injury history, Carlos Beltran is 39 and Alex Rodriguez is 41. All three are more likely to lose time to Hicks than Gardner, who remains one of the younger guys in pinstripes at age 32.

Guys that hit homers and steal bases are the stuff of every fantasy owner's dreams, and Gardner figures to do both at a discount. He might need Yankee Stadium to post power numbers, but it is probably too late for him to be traded. Buy.

Verdict: Champ

 

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