RADIO
Edward Sutelan continues RotoBaller's Bold Prediction series, offering his thoughts for the 2016 fantasy baseball season.
The Cincinnati Reds will win the World Series! It does not get much bolder than that. And as much as I wish I could stand behind that statement with logic, this sad fan knows that this is not the season for the Reds. But though it may not be the year for the Reds, Ohio may find some other team to root for in the World Series, if you catch what I’m implying...
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10 Bold Predictions for 2016
1. Dansby Swanson is the Braves’ starting shortstop by August 3.
The Atlanta Braves have shown over the past year that no one is safe from a trade and I believe that that will extend to Erick Aybar. For now, they are saying that Aybar won’t be traded, but I think Dansby Swanson will be at Triple-A by the deadline and the Braves will feel that Aybar is expendable. And as unpredictable as the Braves have been over the past couple seasons, I believe that they will be ready for Swanson to take over as the franchise shortstop. Swanson should be able to provide some decent pop, speed, and hit for a .280+ average. And in case you are worried that the Braves won’t be competitive and so therefore won’t want to promote such a promising prospect, keep in mind that last season, the 67-95 promoted both Adonis Garcia and Matt Wisler in the middle of a season in which they were anything but competitive.
2. Cody Allen finishes the year with the most saves.
Some may argue that this is not really a bold prediction given how volatile the saves leaderboard can be at the end of most seasons, but I couple this with another bold prediction that is not necessarily fantasy related. First off, I believe Cleveland has arguably the best rotation in the American League, but I also believe that they could struggle to provide runs for that great rotation. But I think this is a recipe for lots of save opportunities for Cody Allen and if his 1.82 FIP proved anything, it’s that he is easily one of the best closers in baseball.
The other part of this bold prediction: the Cleveland Indians will win the World Series. I think with their stud rotation and big time contributions from Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, and Francisco Lindor in the playoffs, the Indians have one of the most well rounded rosters in baseball. I know people will point to the Cubs and the Astros as young star-studded teams who could beat the Indians, but neither of them have the rotation that Cleveland possesses and both of those offenses have a tendency to be strikeout prone (a bad combo when you factor in the fact that the Indians rotation led the majors in strikeouts last season and figures to do the same next season). So for the first time since 1948, the Cleveland Indians will be World Series Champions (at least according to me, before the season has started).
3. Kyle Hendricks is a top-20 starting pitcher.
Lost among all the talk of Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Jake Arrieta last season was the fact that Kyle Hendricks put together quite the campaign. He amassed 180.0 innings with a 3.95 ERA and a promising 3.36 FIP with an 8.35 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, and 0.85 HR/9. If you go back and look at Hendricks’ past seasons, both majors and minors, this really shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as he has dominated at every level.
That 3.95 ERA was the highest ERA that Hendricks has posted at any level in which he pitched more than 80 innings. High-A when he was with Texas: 2.82 ERA and 2.95 FIP. Cubs Double-A: 1.85 ERA with a 2.36 FIP. Triple-A: 3.59 ERA with a 3.17 FIP. Last season with the Cubs: 2.46 ERA and 3.32 FIP. This guy has secretly been a stud at every level he has faced. He is still only 26-years-old and fantasy owners would be wise to expect him to get better in 2016.
4. Noah Syndergaard is the second-best NL pitcher.
Noah Syndergaard made his debut last season and proved to be an integral part of the Mets’ postseason run. He pitched 150 innings and was the proud owner of a 3.24 ERA and 3.25 FIP. Is he going to get better in 2016? You had better believe it!
Last season, Syndergaard ranked first among starting pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched with an average fastball velocity of 97.1 mph. Couple that with an elite curveball that averages 17 mph slower than the fastball and you’ve got quite the wicked combo. The peripherals last season loved what he did as he posted an xFIP of 2.91 and a SIERA of 2.95. So why was his ERA as high as 3.24? Because he struggled with the home run ball a bit. He gave up 1.14 HR/9, largely in part to an unlucky 14.3% HR/FB rate (13th highest in baseball). I believe that he will bring that down next season. Syndergaard did an excellent job last season at avoiding the sweet-spot of bats as he posted the ninth lowest hard contact rate in baseball (24.6%). Only 23-years-old, Syndergaard has the swing-and-miss stuff of elite pitchers and gave no one any reason to doubt his potential moving forward. Next season, the Mets righty will pass fellow rotation members Jacob DeGrom and Matt Harvey as well as perennial Cy Young contenders Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke and establishes himself right behind Clayton Kershaw on the list of NL pitching elites.
5. Mookie Betts is a top-3 outfielder.
Spoiler alert: the other two are Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Just in case there was anyone who didn’t know. But I’m sure all of you knew that. Anyways, back to Mookie Betts. He was tied with Nelson Cruz last season for 11th among outfielders in WAR and next season, I expect him to make the big jump to three. There really is not anything that Betts can’t do.
Last season, Betts slashed .291/.341/.479 with 18 home runs and 21 stolen bases in 654 plate appearances. Still only 23-years-old, Betts has plenty of room for improvement and I would expect him to put together at the very least a 20/20 season. I see him finishing the season batting over .300 with 25 home runs and 30 stolen bases en route to becoming one of the best outfielders of our generation. Move over Andrew McCutchen and AJ Pollock, there’s a new, elite power/speed outfielder in town and his name is Mookie Betts.
6. Brian McCann is not a top 15 catcher.
For a catcher who hasn’t hit fewer than 20 home runs since 2007 and who mashed a career-high 26 last season, Brian McCann is used to being considered one of the game’s elite offensive catchers. That all changes next season.
First of all, McCann has hurt fantasy owners over the past two seasons as a result of his dismal .232 average. And though he still has elite power, the guy behind him in the depth chart may have more at this stage of their respective careers. Gary Sanchez is ready to take over as the backup catcher and while McCann has not seen a decline in playing time from catchers in the past, he has not had a catcher with the same caliber of talent as Sanchez lurking behind him. Sanchez figures to take out a huge chunk of McCann’s playing time behind the dish and as a result McCann won’t be able to accumulate the 45his 0+ plate appearances fantasy owners have grown accustomed to seeing over McCann’s career (has only had fewer than 450 plate appearances once since he debuted in 2005). Plus McCann is 32-years-old. For a normal player that is the beginning of a decline in production. For a catcher, that is really getting old.
7. AJ Reed wins the AL ROY and finishes as a top-5 AL 1B.
If you read my prospect articles, you will know that I am very high on AJ Reed and very low on Jon Singleton. Before the season began, it was widely believed that Singleton would be starting at first base for Houston, but struggles by Singleton (.146/.205/.341 with two home runs) and strong spring showings from AJ Reed and Tyler White have opened first base for discussion.
At this point, I don’t think that Singleton is going to win the first base job, and I think that it will be Tyler White. And while I think White is talented enough to keep the job, I expect to see the ridiculous bat of AJ Reed take over the job before the beginning of May and run with it from there. In case you were wondering what Reed did last season, while at High-A, Reed hit .346/.449/.638 with 23 home runs in 385 PA and at Double-A, Reed hit .332/.405/.571 with 11 home runs in 237 PA. Reed is one of the best first base bats to come along in years and I fully expect him to blow away what appears to be a relatively weak AL Rookie class.
8. Billy Hamilton hits above .255 and steals 90 bases.
The funny thing about Hamilton is that what makes this a bold prediction is not the stealing 90 bases, because as he has evidenced in the past he can steal plenty of bases no matter how little he reaches base. The bold prediction is really that he will hit .255. Following Spring Training, things don’t look too promising as he is hitting only .176 in 17 at bats. But call it some crazy feeling, but I believe that this is the year he figures out how to put the ball on the ground.
Lost in all of the sadness of yet another dismal hitting season for the 25-year-old speedster was the fact that he actually did hit more groundballs and he improved on his plate discipline. Not only did Hamilton improve his GB/FB rate from 1.11 in 2014 to 1.13 in 2015 (a small change, but at least in the right direction), Hamilton also walked 0.6% more of the time and struck out a promising 2.6% less than he did in 2014. He also started to make more contact as he increased his contact rate from 83.0% to 83.6% (again, a small change, but moving in the right direction steadily). I think also batting Hamilton lower in the order will take some pressure on him and he will work more on his approach than trying to do much at the plate. Now with regard to the stolen bases: Hamilton reached base 122 times in 2015 and stole 57 bases. That means that 46.7% of the time that he reached base, he successfully stole a base. If the walk rate remains the same (6.2%) and Hamilton hits .255 in 600 plate appearances, then that means he reaches base about 177 times. If he steals a bag 46.7% of the time after reaching the base 177 times, he would be on pace to steal 82.6 times. I would count on Hamilton to round that up somehow and make it closer to 90. So yeah, he’s fast.
9. Randal Grichuk hits 30 home runs.
Randal Grichuk did not just break out onto the scene in 2015, he exploded. After a disappointing 47 game debut in 2014, Grichuk was called up and slashed .276/.329/.548 with 17 home runs in 350 PA. Yes, we are going to use rate stats for this too, but I have other numbers to back up my argument. But first, at the rate Grichuk was hitting home runs per plate appearance in 2015 (4.9% of the time), we would expect Grichuk to hit 29.4 home runs. Not only do I think Grichuk can keep up that rate of home runs, I think he can hit at a rate better than that.
Last season, Grichuk managed a somewhat pedestrian (for someone of his power) 19.1% HR/FB. To put that in perspective, Hanley Ramirez had a 19.2% HR/FB rate and Shin-Soo Choo managed an 18.8% HR/FB rate. Grichuk managed those numbers with a somewhat low 41.6% FB rate, which could be in line for an increase as he showed in his first taste of Major League action that he can hit closer to 45% fly balls. And with the amount of hard contact that Grichuk makes (36.9%, which was equal to the hard contact rate of Todd Frazier), it would be wise to assume that Grichuk has more than enough pop in his bat to keep pushing fly balls out. So for fantasy owners, expect the batting average to take a hit (.276 is way too high for someone with a 31.4% strikeout rate), but expect Grichuk to establish himself as one of the premier power bats in the game next season.
10. Rougned Odor is a top-5 second baseman.
For whatever reason, Rougned Odor does not get enough love. Unless you were the proud owner of Odor last season, you probably did not know that he mashed 16 home runs and put together a promising .261/.316/.465 slash line. Oh, and did I mention that he is only 22-years-old? But before I make my argument for why Odor will be a top five second baseman, you really have to know who competes yearly for that honor. That would be Jason Kipnis, Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve, Logan Forsythe, Ian Kinsler, Robinson Cano, and Ben Zobrist. Now, here’s why Odor is going to surpass several of those names.
First you need to understand how good Odor looked in the second half of the season. He really struggled in the first half of the season (.172/.274/.258 with one home run), but tore it up once he returned from the minors on June 15 to the tune of a .292/.334/.527 slash line with 15 home runs and five stolen bases. Odor has shown us that he has 20 home run power, but what makes him even more promising is the speed that he has yet to tap into. In 2013, Odor stole 32 bases between High-A and Double-A and in 2012, he stole 19 bases. There is 20/20 potential with Odor and I think this is the year he starts to really put it all together. I would expect something around .270 with 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases. Beat that, Robinson Cano!
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